Groupon Raises Full-Year EBITDA Forecast to $80M Amid Restructuring
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 1 day ago
0mins
Source: seekingalpha
- EBITDA Forecast Increase: Groupon has raised its adjusted EBITDA forecast for 2026 to between $75 million and $80 million, reflecting positive progress in its transition to an AI-native company, which is expected to boost stock prices and enhance market confidence.
- Workforce Reduction Plan: The company plans to cut up to 400 positions globally, which is expected to generate annual cost savings of $20 million to $25 million, a move that not only optimizes operational efficiency but also frees up funds for future technology investments.
- Estimated Restructuring Costs: Groupon anticipates pre-tax charges related to the workforce reductions will range from $7 million to $13 million, primarily for employee severance and compensation benefits, which may exert short-term financial pressure but ultimately supports higher profitability in the long run.
- Future Investment Focus: The company intends to reinvest up to 50% of the savings into marketing, AI infrastructure, and talent density in 2026, expecting to realize approximately $5 million in net savings, demonstrating its strategic commitment to future growth.
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Analyst Views on GRPN
Wall Street analysts forecast GRPN stock price to rise
3 Analyst Rating
2 Buy
0 Hold
1 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 20.690
Low
17.00
Averages
35.33
High
47.00
Current: 20.690
Low
17.00
Averages
35.33
High
47.00
About GRPN
Groupon, Inc. is a scaled two-sided marketplace that connects consumers to merchants. The Company’s marketplace is accessible through its mobile applications and its websites, which are primarily localized groupon.com sites in 13 countries. It has two segments, North America and International, and in three categories: Local, Goods and Travel. The Local category includes services from local and national merchants, and other local and national merchants, including things to do, beauty and wellness and dining, as well as other services. The Goods category includes merchandise across multiple product lines, such as electronics, sporting goods, jewelry, toys, household items and apparel. The Travel category features travel experiences at both discounted and market rates, including hotels, airfare and package deals covering both domestic and international travel. The customer can contact the merchant directly to make a travel reservation after purchasing a travel voucher from the Company.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Groupon Raises Full-Year EBITDA Forecast to $80M Amid Restructuring
- EBITDA Forecast Increase: Groupon has raised its adjusted EBITDA forecast for 2026 to between $75 million and $80 million, reflecting positive progress in its transition to an AI-native company, which is expected to boost stock prices and enhance market confidence.
- Workforce Reduction Plan: The company plans to cut up to 400 positions globally, which is expected to generate annual cost savings of $20 million to $25 million, a move that not only optimizes operational efficiency but also frees up funds for future technology investments.
- Estimated Restructuring Costs: Groupon anticipates pre-tax charges related to the workforce reductions will range from $7 million to $13 million, primarily for employee severance and compensation benefits, which may exert short-term financial pressure but ultimately supports higher profitability in the long run.
- Future Investment Focus: The company intends to reinvest up to 50% of the savings into marketing, AI infrastructure, and talent density in 2026, expecting to realize approximately $5 million in net savings, demonstrating its strategic commitment to future growth.
See More
Groupon Q1 2026 Earnings Call Insights
- Performance Miss: Groupon reported Q1 global billings of $383 million, down 1% year-over-year, with revenue flat at $117 million and adjusted EBITDA of $12.8 million, which included approximately $2 million in severance costs, indicating ongoing softness in managed and organic channels.
- Strategic Transformation: CEO Senkypl emphasized that Project Foundry represents the most significant operational decision since the management team's arrival, aiming to reshape the company into an AI-native enterprise, with plans to integrate AI agents across functions, although additional headcount reductions are pending Board approval, which may impact employee morale.
- Cautious Outlook: Despite improvements in April performance, Senkypl maintained a conservative Q2 guidance, expecting billings to be flat to up 2%, with revenue projected between $126 million and $128 million and adjusted EBITDA of $13 million to $15 million, reflecting cautious expectations regarding large enterprise campaigns.
- Increased Market Risks: Management highlighted geopolitical risks affecting international performance, particularly challenges related to the complex situation with Emirates, while also emphasizing ongoing risks in managed and organic channels that could impact future performance.
See More
Groupon Reaffirms FY 2026 Guidance Amidst Q1 Loss
- 2026 Revenue Guidance: Groupon reaffirmed its fiscal year 2026 revenue guidance between $513 million and $523 million, with a midpoint of $518 million, surpassing the market estimate of $517.8 million, indicating a 4% growth over the previous year and showcasing the company's confidence in future growth.
- Billing Growth Outlook: The company expects billing growth to range from 3% to 5% in 2026, significantly higher than the 1% growth recorded in Q1, reflecting positive progress in market recovery and business restructuring efforts.
- AI Strategy Advancement: The CEO stated that Groupon is transforming its operations to become AI-native, aiming to have most new merchant meetings booked by AI by the end of 2026, demonstrating its commitment to intelligent transformation and forward-thinking approach.
- Positive Market Reaction: Despite missing Q1 earnings expectations, Groupon's stock surged over 21% in Friday's trading, reflecting investor optimism regarding the company's AI strategy and future growth potential.
See More
Grindr Nominates New Board Members for 2026
- Board Member Nominations: Grindr has announced the nomination of Rob Solomon, Lisa Gersh, and Fadi Hanna for election at the Annual Meeting of Shareholders on June 2, 2026, aiming to enhance the Board's strategic and governance capabilities to support the company's next phase of growth.
- Rob Solomon's Background: As CEO of H55, Solomon has extensive experience in electric aviation and previously led GoFundMe and Groupon, overseeing billions in donations and demonstrating exceptional operational and growth capabilities.
- Lisa Gersh's Contributions: Gersh brings deep expertise in consumer brands and media, having served as CEO for several high-profile companies and as a board member at Hasbro, focusing on brand innovation and consumer engagement to drive business transformation.
- Fadi Hanna's Risk Management: As Chief Risk Officer at Bloomberg, Hanna oversees global risk management and previously served as Managing Director of Compliance at J.P. Morgan, providing critical risk oversight and governance support for Grindr's Board.
See More
Groupon Stock Drops 8.44%, Future Outlook Worrisome
- Stock Fluctuation: Groupon (GRPN) closed at $14.21, marking an 8.44% decline from the previous trading session, which is less than the S&P 500's daily gain of 1.2%, indicating market concerns about its future performance.
- Monthly Performance: Despite the recent drop, Groupon's stock has risen by 41.35% over the past month, significantly outperforming the Retail-Wholesale sector's gain of 6.55% and the S&P 500's 5.15%, suggesting some short-term market appeal.
- Earnings Expectations: The upcoming earnings report projects an EPS of -$0.02, reflecting a 111.11% year-over-year decline, while revenue is expected to be $117.26 million, indicating a slight 0.06% increase compared to the same quarter last year, highlighting profitability pressures.
- Analyst Ratings: Groupon currently holds a Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell), with a 20.19% decrease in the EPS estimate over the last 30 days, suggesting a weakening confidence among analysts regarding its future profitability, prompting investors to monitor its market performance closely.
See More
Prentice Capital Fully Exits Compass Stake, Impact on Holdings
- Shareholder Exit: According to a February 17, 2026 SEC filing, Prentice Capital Management sold all 347,094 shares of Compass during Q4, resulting in a $2.79 million decrease in reported position value, indicating a significant loss of confidence in the company.
- Market Performance: As of February 17, 2026, Compass shares were priced at $10.10, reflecting a 26.6% increase over the past year, outperforming the S&P 500 by 15.45 percentage points, showcasing its relative strength in the real estate market.
- Company Overview: Compass operates at scale in the U.S. real estate market, leveraging technology to enhance agent productivity and improve client experience, with a strategy that integrates advanced software solutions with traditional brokerage services to create a differentiated value proposition.
- Investor Implications: Compass's revenue is directly tied to the volume and value of home transactions closed by agents, and while its technology platform supports marketing and client management, profitability hinges on cost control and revenue share, making it crucial for investors to monitor its ability to scale agent networks while achieving profitability.
See More
Groupon Raises Full-Year EBITDA Forecast to $80M Amid Restructuring
- EBITDA Forecast Increase: Groupon has raised its adjusted EBITDA forecast for 2026 to between $75 million and $80 million, reflecting positive progress in its transition to an AI-native company, which is expected to boost stock prices and enhance market confidence.
- Workforce Reduction Plan: The company plans to cut up to 400 positions globally, which is expected to generate annual cost savings of $20 million to $25 million, a move that not only optimizes operational efficiency but also frees up funds for future technology investments.
- Estimated Restructuring Costs: Groupon anticipates pre-tax charges related to the workforce reductions will range from $7 million to $13 million, primarily for employee severance and compensation benefits, which may exert short-term financial pressure but ultimately supports higher profitability in the long run.
- Future Investment Focus: The company intends to reinvest up to 50% of the savings into marketing, AI infrastructure, and talent density in 2026, expecting to realize approximately $5 million in net savings, demonstrating its strategic commitment to future growth.
See More
Groupon Q1 2026 Earnings Call Insights
- Performance Miss: Groupon reported Q1 global billings of $383 million, down 1% year-over-year, with revenue flat at $117 million and adjusted EBITDA of $12.8 million, which included approximately $2 million in severance costs, indicating ongoing softness in managed and organic channels.
- Strategic Transformation: CEO Senkypl emphasized that Project Foundry represents the most significant operational decision since the management team's arrival, aiming to reshape the company into an AI-native enterprise, with plans to integrate AI agents across functions, although additional headcount reductions are pending Board approval, which may impact employee morale.
- Cautious Outlook: Despite improvements in April performance, Senkypl maintained a conservative Q2 guidance, expecting billings to be flat to up 2%, with revenue projected between $126 million and $128 million and adjusted EBITDA of $13 million to $15 million, reflecting cautious expectations regarding large enterprise campaigns.
- Increased Market Risks: Management highlighted geopolitical risks affecting international performance, particularly challenges related to the complex situation with Emirates, while also emphasizing ongoing risks in managed and organic channels that could impact future performance.
See More
Groupon Reaffirms FY 2026 Guidance Amidst Q1 Loss
- 2026 Revenue Guidance: Groupon reaffirmed its fiscal year 2026 revenue guidance between $513 million and $523 million, with a midpoint of $518 million, surpassing the market estimate of $517.8 million, indicating a 4% growth over the previous year and showcasing the company's confidence in future growth.
- Billing Growth Outlook: The company expects billing growth to range from 3% to 5% in 2026, significantly higher than the 1% growth recorded in Q1, reflecting positive progress in market recovery and business restructuring efforts.
- AI Strategy Advancement: The CEO stated that Groupon is transforming its operations to become AI-native, aiming to have most new merchant meetings booked by AI by the end of 2026, demonstrating its commitment to intelligent transformation and forward-thinking approach.
- Positive Market Reaction: Despite missing Q1 earnings expectations, Groupon's stock surged over 21% in Friday's trading, reflecting investor optimism regarding the company's AI strategy and future growth potential.
See More
Grindr Nominates New Board Members for 2026
- Board Member Nominations: Grindr has announced the nomination of Rob Solomon, Lisa Gersh, and Fadi Hanna for election at the Annual Meeting of Shareholders on June 2, 2026, aiming to enhance the Board's strategic and governance capabilities to support the company's next phase of growth.
- Rob Solomon's Background: As CEO of H55, Solomon has extensive experience in electric aviation and previously led GoFundMe and Groupon, overseeing billions in donations and demonstrating exceptional operational and growth capabilities.
- Lisa Gersh's Contributions: Gersh brings deep expertise in consumer brands and media, having served as CEO for several high-profile companies and as a board member at Hasbro, focusing on brand innovation and consumer engagement to drive business transformation.
- Fadi Hanna's Risk Management: As Chief Risk Officer at Bloomberg, Hanna oversees global risk management and previously served as Managing Director of Compliance at J.P. Morgan, providing critical risk oversight and governance support for Grindr's Board.
See More
Groupon Stock Drops 8.44%, Future Outlook Worrisome
- Stock Fluctuation: Groupon (GRPN) closed at $14.21, marking an 8.44% decline from the previous trading session, which is less than the S&P 500's daily gain of 1.2%, indicating market concerns about its future performance.
- Monthly Performance: Despite the recent drop, Groupon's stock has risen by 41.35% over the past month, significantly outperforming the Retail-Wholesale sector's gain of 6.55% and the S&P 500's 5.15%, suggesting some short-term market appeal.
- Earnings Expectations: The upcoming earnings report projects an EPS of -$0.02, reflecting a 111.11% year-over-year decline, while revenue is expected to be $117.26 million, indicating a slight 0.06% increase compared to the same quarter last year, highlighting profitability pressures.
- Analyst Ratings: Groupon currently holds a Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell), with a 20.19% decrease in the EPS estimate over the last 30 days, suggesting a weakening confidence among analysts regarding its future profitability, prompting investors to monitor its market performance closely.
See More
Prentice Capital Fully Exits Compass Stake, Impact on Holdings
- Shareholder Exit: According to a February 17, 2026 SEC filing, Prentice Capital Management sold all 347,094 shares of Compass during Q4, resulting in a $2.79 million decrease in reported position value, indicating a significant loss of confidence in the company.
- Market Performance: As of February 17, 2026, Compass shares were priced at $10.10, reflecting a 26.6% increase over the past year, outperforming the S&P 500 by 15.45 percentage points, showcasing its relative strength in the real estate market.
- Company Overview: Compass operates at scale in the U.S. real estate market, leveraging technology to enhance agent productivity and improve client experience, with a strategy that integrates advanced software solutions with traditional brokerage services to create a differentiated value proposition.
- Investor Implications: Compass's revenue is directly tied to the volume and value of home transactions closed by agents, and while its technology platform supports marketing and client management, profitability hinges on cost control and revenue share, making it crucial for investors to monitor its ability to scale agent networks while achieving profitability.
See More
