FY26 Adjusted EBITDA Outlook of $40M-$60M
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: May 06 2026
0mins
Backs FY26 adjusted EBITDA view $40M-$60M. "Improved adjusted EBITDA compared to first half of fiscal 2025 demonstrates our execution on profitable growth and supports our reaffirmed fiscal 2026 guidance." said Ahmed Pasha, Chief Financial Officer. "Our strong liquidity provides flexibility to execute on our plan and support continued growth momentum."
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Analyst Views on FLNC
Wall Street analysts forecast FLNC stock price to fall
18 Analyst Rating
3 Buy
12 Hold
3 Sell
Hold
Current: 20.190
Low
8.00
Averages
16.25
High
26.00
Current: 20.190
Low
8.00
Averages
16.25
High
26.00
About FLNC
Fluence Energy, Inc. is a global provider of energy storage products and services, and optimization software for renewables and storage. With a presence in 47 markets globally, the Company provides an ecosystem of offerings to drive the clean energy transition, including modular, scalable energy storage products, comprehensive service offerings, and artificial intelligence (AI)-enabled optimization software for managing and optimizing renewables and storage from any provider. Its offerings include energy storage products and solutions, delivery services, recurring O&M services, and digital applications and solutions for energy storage and other power assets. Its energy storage solutions include Gridstack Pro, Gridstack, Sunstack, Edgestack, and Ultrastack. In addition, each of its energy storage solutions comes with its proprietary energy management system, Fluence OS. The Company’s cloud-based software products include Fluence Mosaic and Fluence Nispera.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Supply Chain Bottlenecks: While the U.S. is scaling up lithium-ion phosphate battery manufacturing, the supply chain for key materials remains heavily reliant on China, creating near-term bottlenecks as tax credit rules increasingly mandate non-China sourcing.
- Grid Connection Delays: In the U.S., while data centers can be built in 18 to 24 months, connecting to the grid can take three to seven years, with lengthy interconnection queues severely impacting the rapid deployment of battery storage projects.
- Strategic Investment and Expansion: Battery storage companies like Fluence are ramping up investments in domestic manufacturing to meet data center demand while calibrating offerings specifically for hyperscalers, demonstrating strong market adaptability.
See More
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- Surge in Capital Expenditure: BNP Paribas reports that AI-related capital expenditures are projected to reach $725 billion by 2026, nearly doubling last year's estimate of $365 billion, indicating robust investment demand in the energy sector.
- Significant Market Impact: The $725 billion spending is comparable to the GDP of some mid-sized European countries and nearly matches JPMorgan's market cap, highlighting the substantial influence of AI investments on the energy market, which could drive stock prices higher for related companies.
- Optimistic Industry Outlook: UBS anticipates that spending on power generation capacity will reach $511 billion by 2030, while Evercore ISI is even more bullish, forecasting expenditures of $800 billion, reflecting strong demand for energy infrastructure.
- Diverse Investment Opportunities: Investors should consider energy infrastructure firms like Hut 8, which recently signed a $9.8 billion deal leading to a stock surge, and Fluence Energy, which saw its shares double after securing supply agreements with major tech companies, showcasing the strong demand for energy solutions.
See More
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- Underwriter Lineup: The offering is being managed by prominent financial institutions including Barclays, Morgan Stanley, and Goldman Sachs, which enhances market confidence in Fluence, with the offering expected to close on May 15, 2026.
- Additional Share Option: The selling stockholders have granted underwriters a 30-day option to purchase an additional 3 million shares, a flexible arrangement that may further enhance market liquidity and reflects expectations for Fluence's future growth.
- Registration Statement Validity: The automatic shelf registration statement filed by Fluence with the SEC on May 12, 2026, has become effective, ensuring compliance for this offering and demonstrating the company's diligence in adhering to regulatory requirements.
See More
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- Public Offering Announcement: Fluence Energy has announced an underwritten public offering of 20 million shares of its Class A common stock by certain controlling stockholders, which is expected to provide additional capital to support future growth.
- Additional Purchase Option: The selling stockholders are expected to grant underwriters a 30-day option to purchase an additional 3 million shares, a flexibility that may further enhance market demand for the stock.
- Market Reaction: Following the public offering announcement, FLNC shares fell 6.86% in premarket trading to $23.50, reflecting market concerns over the dilution effect of the offering, which could impact short-term stock performance.
- Strategic Implications: This offering not only provides Fluence Energy with necessary funding but also may help solidify its competitive position in the rapidly growing energy storage market by enhancing liquidity and market confidence.
See More
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- Price Target Increase: Goldman Sachs raised Fluence's price target from $20 to $22 while maintaining a Buy rating, showcasing confidence in the company's future growth potential, particularly related to data center opportunities.
- Strategic Partnerships: During the quarter, Fluence signed master supply agreements with two hyperscale customers, supporting a majority of its 12 GW data center pipeline and further solidifying its market position.
- Financial Outlook: The company maintained its FY26 adjusted EBITDA outlook of $40 million to $60 million, with the CFO stating that the liquidity position provides flexibility to support ongoing growth plans and strategic initiatives for profitable growth.
See More
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- Support from Employment Data: U.S. nonfarm payrolls for April increased by 115,000, surpassing expectations of 65,000, with March figures revised up to 185,000, indicating resilience in the labor market and further boosting stock prices.
- Decline in Consumer Confidence: The University of Michigan's May consumer sentiment index fell to a record low of 48.2, below the expected 49.5, highlighting economic uncertainty that could impact future consumer spending.
- Oil Market Volatility: Iran's seizure of an oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz led to a rise in WTI crude prices, with expectations that this incident will affect global oil supply, potentially causing further price fluctuations.
See More
