Energy Recovery, Inc. Q4 2025 Earnings Call Insights
- Strategic Focus on Water: CEO David Moon highlighted a strategic pivot towards the water business, identifying it as a rapidly growing and profitable market; despite setbacks in 2025 and 2026 due to delays in several large desalination projects, management remains confident in growth for 2027.
- Exit from CO2 Business: The company announced the winding down of its CO2 retail grocery business, which is expected to deliver annual savings of $7 million, with Moon describing this as the optimal path for shareholder value creation, resulting in a headcount reduction of about 20 employees.
- Revenue Guidance Adjustment: CFO Michael Mancini indicated that three major projects are expected to slip into 2026, impacting revenue by approximately $25 million to $30 million, with an additional buffer of $15 million to $25 million incorporated for potential further delays.
- Capital Expenditure Plans: Capital expenditure guidance for 2026 is set at $3 million to $6 million, with a similar range expected for 2027 to support new manufacturing facilities, as management maintains optimism for future growth despite the challenges posed by project delays.
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- Strategic Focus on Water: CEO David Moon highlighted a strategic pivot towards the water business, identifying it as a rapidly growing and profitable market; despite setbacks in 2025 and 2026 due to delays in several large desalination projects, management remains confident in growth for 2027.
- Exit from CO2 Business: The company announced the winding down of its CO2 retail grocery business, which is expected to deliver annual savings of $7 million, with Moon describing this as the optimal path for shareholder value creation, resulting in a headcount reduction of about 20 employees.
- Revenue Guidance Adjustment: CFO Michael Mancini indicated that three major projects are expected to slip into 2026, impacting revenue by approximately $25 million to $30 million, with an additional buffer of $15 million to $25 million incorporated for potential further delays.
- Capital Expenditure Plans: Capital expenditure guidance for 2026 is set at $3 million to $6 million, with a similar range expected for 2027 to support new manufacturing facilities, as management maintains optimism for future growth despite the challenges posed by project delays.
- Volume Surge: The Global X Clean Water ETF experienced unusually high trading volume on Wednesday, with over 378,000 shares traded compared to a three-month average of about 45,000 shares, indicating a significant increase in market interest.
- Top Component Performance: Xylem led the ETF in trading volume with over 2 million shares changing hands, despite a decline of about 3.2% in its stock price, suggesting a potential decrease in investor confidence.
- Primo Brands Activity: Primo Brands also saw trading volume exceeding 1.3 million shares, with a stock price drop of about 1.3%, reflecting cautious market sentiment regarding its future performance, which may affect its short-term investment appeal.
- Energy Recovery vs. Badger Meter: Energy Recovery performed the best on Wednesday with a stock price increase of about 1.9%, while Badger Meter lagged significantly, down approximately 15.3%, highlighting a stark divergence among ETF components that could influence investor asset allocation strategies.

Fair Value Estimate Adjustment: Energy Recovery's fair value estimate has decreased from $18.60 to $18.24 due to tempered growth expectations, particularly regarding CO₂ refrigeration adoption, though analysts remain optimistic about the company's long-term prospects.
Analyst Ratings and Price Targets: Seaport Research raised its price target for Energy Recovery from $17 to $23, maintaining a Buy rating, while CJS Securities initiated coverage with an Outperform rating and a $19 target, indicating strong confidence in the company's growth potential despite some near-term risks.
Share Repurchase Program: Energy Recovery completed a $30M share repurchase program, retiring approximately 4% of its outstanding shares, which provides the company with flexibility in managing its capital return strategy amid changing market conditions.
Financial Metrics Overview: The company's revenue growth forecast has been revised down from 18.64% to 15.59%, while the net profit margin has improved from 27.22% to 29.44%, reflecting expectations for stronger long-term profitability despite a slight increase in the discount rate.

Industry Overview: The Zacks Pollution Control industry is experiencing strong demand for air pollution control products due to rising greenhouse gas emissions and stringent regulations, although the shift towards renewable energy sources poses challenges.
Key Players: Companies like Donaldson Company, Atmus Filtration Technologies, Energy Recovery, and Fuel Tech are well-positioned to benefit from industry trends, with each showing varying degrees of growth and market performance.
Market Trends: Rapid urbanization and increased public awareness of health risks from air pollution are driving demand, while strict government regulations and advancements in technology, such as AI, are enhancing pollution control efforts.
Performance Insights: Despite the industry's solid prospects indicated by a favorable Zacks Industry Rank, it has underperformed compared to the broader Industrial Products sector and the S&P 500 over the past year.
Industry Outlook: The Zacks Pollution Control industry is experiencing strong demand for air pollution control products due to increasing greenhouse gas emissions and stringent government regulations, although the rise of renewable energy sources poses challenges.
Key Players: Companies like Donaldson Company, Atmus Filtration Technologies, Energy Recovery, and Fuel Tech are well-positioned to benefit from the growing market for pollution control technologies and services.
Market Trends: Rapid urbanization and heightened public awareness of health risks from air pollution are driving demand, while strict emission standards globally are further supporting the industry.
Performance Metrics: Despite a solid Zacks Industry Rank indicating positive near-term prospects, the pollution control industry has underperformed compared to the broader Industrial Products sector and the S&P 500 over the past year.

CJS Securities Coverage: CJS Securities initiated coverage of Energy Recovery (NasdaqGS:ERII) with a "Market Outperform" recommendation, projecting a 15.20% upside based on an average one-year price target of $16.83/share.
Fund Sentiment and Ownership Changes: There are 378 funds reporting positions in Energy Recovery, with a slight decrease in ownership. Notable changes include Ameriprise Financial increasing its shares by 4.85%, while Brown Capital Management and iShares Russell 2000 ETF reduced their holdings significantly.






