Eli Lilly Faces Challenges Amid GLP-1 Drug Success
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Mar 03 2026
0mins
Source: Fool
- Sales Growth Dependency: Eli Lilly's Mounjaro and Zepbound drugs achieved impressive sales growth of 99% and 175% in 2025, respectively, yet these two drugs account for nearly 45% of the company's total sales, raising concerns about the sustainability of such growth.
- Overvaluation Concerns: Despite the strong performance of Eli Lilly's drugs, its stock price has surged to a price-to-earnings ratio of 44, with a meager dividend yield of 0.6%, indicating that the market's expectations for future growth may be overly optimistic.
- Competitors' Opportunities: GLP-1 competitors Novo Nordisk and Pfizer offer more attractive investment profiles with dividend yields of 4.57% and 6.31%, respectively, and price-to-earnings ratios of 10 and 20, especially as Eli Lilly faces risks from patent expirations.
- Intensifying Industry Competition: While Eli Lilly's success in the GLP-1 space is notable, it may overshadow the risks it faces; as competition intensifies, the strong historical performance of Novo Nordisk and Pfizer could enable them to rebound in the market, presenting new opportunities for investors.
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Analyst Views on LLY
Wall Street analysts forecast LLY stock price to rise
20 Analyst Rating
18 Buy
2 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 954.520
Low
950.00
Averages
1192
High
1500
Current: 954.520
Low
950.00
Averages
1192
High
1500
About LLY
Eli Lilly and Company is a medicine company, which discovers, develops, manufactures, and market products in a single business segment called human pharmaceutical products. The Company manufacture and distribute its products through facilities in the United States, including Puerto Rico, and in Europe and Asia. The Company’s products are sold in approximately 90 countries. Its Cardiometabolic Health products Basaglar; Humalog, Humalog Mix 75/25, Humalog U-100, Humalog U-200, Humalog Mix 50/50, insulin lispro, and others; Humulin, Humulin 70/30, and others; Jardiance; Mounjaro; Trulicity; Zepbound, and others. Its oncology products include Cyramza, Erbitux, Tyvyt, Verzenio, Retevmo, Jaypirca, and others. Its immunology products include Ebglyss, Olumiant, Omvoh, and Taltz. Its neuroscience products include Emgality and Kisunla. Its LillyDirect, a direct-to-patient digital health care platform, provides delivery of select Lilly medicines dispensed by third-party pharmacies to patients.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Significant Weight Loss: In the ATTAIN-1 clinical trial, participants on the highest dose lost an average of 27.3 pounds (12.4%), compared to just 2.2 pounds (0.9%) in the placebo group, demonstrating Foundayo's efficacy and market potential.
- Convenient Access: Foundayo will be available through LillyDirect®, with commercial insurance patients paying only $25 per month and self-pay patients at $149, which is expected to improve drug accessibility and meet the needs of obesity patients.
- Global Rollout Plan: Lilly plans to launch Foundayo in over 40 countries shortly after approval, aiming to enhance the quality of life for obesity patients worldwide by providing effective treatment options.
See More
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- Market Share Challenge: Novo Nordisk has lost its leading position in the anti-obesity market to Eli Lilly, and despite launching new drugs and label expansions, the market penetration remains insufficient, indicating increasing competitive pressure.
- Obesity Patient Status: Approximately 40.3% of adults in the U.S. are classified as obese, but some studies suggest this figure could be as high as 70%, highlighting a significant potential market; however, only 12% of patients are currently using GLP-1 drugs, revealing a substantial opportunity.
- New Subscription Plan: Novo Nordisk has introduced a subscription plan for Wegovy lasting three, six, or twelve months, allowing patients to access discounts through telehealth platforms, aiming to enhance drug accessibility and expand market reach.
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- New Subscription Model: Novo Nordisk has introduced a subscription model for Wegovy prescriptions lasting three, six, or twelve months, allowing patients to access lower prescription costs through telehealth platforms, which is expected to significantly enhance drug accessibility and attract more users.
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See More
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- Clinical Trial Progress: Viking Therapeutics' leading candidate VK2735 is undergoing pivotal 78-week phase 3 studies, with the second study recently completing enrollment; strong results could establish a solid foundation for the company in the competitive weight-loss market.
- Significant Market Potential: Analysts predict VK2735 could generate peak sales of $14.4 billion in the U.S. and $7.2 billion in Europe, totaling $21.6 billion, highlighting the drug's market potential as the weight-loss sector is projected to exceed $100 billion in the next decade.
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See More
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- Massive Market Potential: Analysts predict VK2735 could generate peak sales of $14.4 billion in the U.S. and $7.2 billion in Europe, totaling $21.6 billion, and if it matches Eli Lilly's Zepbound, Viking's stock price could soar.
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- Retail Sector Adaptation: While large retailers like Walmart have emerged relatively unscathed, smaller businesses have been severely impacted, with Home Depot aiming to limit purchases from any single country to 10% to reduce dependency and enhance supply chain flexibility.
- Automotive Industry Cost Surge: Automakers such as General Motors and Toyota are facing tariff impacts estimated at up to $9.5 billion, and although the Trump administration has taken steps to alleviate overlapping tariffs, overall costs remain significant, forcing companies to reassess their supply chain strategies.
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