Elevance Health Shares Plummet Once More: The Impact of Earnings on Medicare Challenges.
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Source: Barron's
Stock Performance: Elevance Health's stock is declining ahead of the market opening due to disappointing guidance from the health insurer.
Previous Decline: The stock had already experienced a 14% drop in the previous session, influenced by a proposal from the Trump administration to maintain flat Medicare rates for the upcoming year.
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Analyst Views on CVS
Wall Street analysts forecast CVS stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for CVS is 96.71 USD with a low forecast of 91.00 USD and a high forecast of 105.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
17 Analyst Rating
16 Buy
1 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 74.030
Low
91.00
Averages
96.71
High
105.00
Current: 74.030
Low
91.00
Averages
96.71
High
105.00
About CVS
CVS Health Corporation is a health solutions company. The Company's segments include Health Care Benefits, Health Services, Pharmacy & Consumer Wellness and Corporate/Other. Health Care Benefits segment offers a broad range of traditional, voluntary and consumer-directed health insurance products and related services, including medical, pharmacy, dental and behavioral health plans, PDPs and Medicaid health care management services. Health Services segment provides a full range of pharmacy benefit management (PBM) solutions through its CVS Caremark operations and delivers health care services in its medical clinics, virtually, and in the home. Pharmacy & Consumer Wellness segment dispenses prescriptions in its CVS Pharmacy retail locations and through its infusion operations, provides ancillary pharmacy services including pharmacy patient care programs, diagnostic testing and vaccination administration, and sells a wide assortment of health and wellness products and general merchandise.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
UnitedHealth Group 2025 Earnings Report Analysis
- Earnings Beat Expectations: UnitedHealth Group's Q4 2025 earnings report exceeded expectations; however, the stock plummeted 20%, indicating market disappointment with future revenue guidance, resulting in a more than 50% decline from its late 2024 peak.
- Impact of Insurance Policy: The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) proposed a mere 0.09% increase in 2027 Medicare Advantage rates, significantly below the anticipated 4% to 6%, placing substantial financial pressure on UnitedHealth Group, which leads the Medicare market.
- CEO's Outlook: CEO Timothy Noel emphasized during the earnings call that the CMS proposal does not reflect the realities of medical utilization and cost trends, potentially leading to significant benefit reductions and necessitating a reevaluation of the company's geographic and product footprint.
- Long-Term Growth Potential: Despite short-term challenges, UnitedHealth Group anticipates modest growth in 2026 and a return to low double-digit earnings growth in 2027, with CEO Stephen Hemsley asserting that the company can achieve long-term growth rates of 13% to 16%, presenting potential long-term investment opportunities for shareholders.
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Trump Administration's Medicare Proposal Shocks Healthcare Stocks
- Payment Increase Proposal: The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services proposed a mere 0.09% net increase in Medicare Advantage payments for 2027, significantly below the anticipated 4% to 6%, resulting in a $90 billion market value loss for the healthcare sector, highlighting the substantial impact of policy uncertainty on market dynamics.
- Earnings Risk Heightened: Analysts warn that if the proposed rates are finalized without adjustments, insurers could see a 15% to 20% decrease in earnings due to the disconnect between rising medical costs and flat funding, exacerbating profitability pressures within the industry.
- Bleak Industry Outlook: Although final rates are expected in April and historical trends suggest potential improvements, analysts predict the healthcare sector may enter a stagnation period of one to two years where earnings fail to expand as previously hoped, negatively affecting investor sentiment.
- Operational Improvements Overlooked: Despite UnitedHealth reporting quarterly improvements in profitability, the headline risk from the payment proposal continues to overshadow operational gains, with analysts noting that while progress is being made, significant recovery challenges remain.
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