Boston Beer price target lowered to $230 from $240 at Piper Sandler
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Apr 17 2025
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Should l Buy SAM?
Price Target Adjustment: Piper Sandler analyst Michael Lavery has reduced the price target for Boston Beer from $240 to $230 while maintaining a Neutral rating due to updated estimates that now include incremental aluminum tariff costs.
Impact on Earnings: The firm anticipates a potential 9% annualized EPS headwind for Boston Beer, although it expects there will be offsets to mitigate this impact.
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Analyst Views on SAM
Wall Street analysts forecast SAM stock price to rise
9 Analyst Rating
1 Buy
7 Hold
1 Sell
Hold
Current: 206.360
Low
192.00
Averages
239.01
High
326.00
Current: 206.360
Low
192.00
Averages
239.01
High
326.00
About SAM
The Boston Beer Company, Inc. is engaged in the business of selling alcohol beverages throughout the United States and in selected international markets, under various trade names. The trade names include The Boston Beer Company, Twisted Tea Brewing Company, Hard Seltzer Beverage Company, Angry Orchard Cider Company, Dogfish Hea Craft Brewery, Dogfish Head Distilling Co., Angel City Brewing Company, Coney Island Brewing Company, Green Rebel Brewing Co., TeaPot Worldwide, Sun Cruiser Beverage Co., American Fermentation Company LLC, and Sinless Spirits Company. It produces alcohol beverages, including flavored malt beverages, hard seltzer, beer, hard cider, spirits-based ready-to-drink beverages (spirits RTDs) and distilled spirits at Company-owned breweries and its cidery and under contract arrangements at other production facilities. The four primary Company-owned breweries are focused on production and research and development. The Company sells its beverages in various packages.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Boston Beer Reports Weak Q1 Results Amid Demand Pressure
- Performance Decline: Boston Beer reported a 4% decline in depletions and a 6.9% drop in shipments, with revenue falling 4.4% to $433.9 million, indicating increased demand pressure that negatively impacts market confidence.
- Earnings Miss: The non-GAAP EPS of $1.64 fell short of expectations by $0.33, highlighting challenges in profitability that could affect investor sentiment and future stock performance.
- Margin Improvement: Despite the volume decline, gross margin improved to 49.3% in Q1, driven by procurement savings and brewery efficiencies, indicating effective cost management strategies in a challenging environment.
- Guidance Tightening: The company narrowed its full-year adjusted EPS guidance to $8.50 to $10.50 (midpoint $9.50), below the consensus of $9.89, reflecting a cautious outlook on future performance amid ongoing market pressures.
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- Sales Decline: Boston Beer Company reported a 4% decrease in depletions for Q1 2026, with Truly continuing to lose market share despite Angry Orchard and Dogfish Head experiencing four consecutive quarters of growth, indicating competitive pressures on the brand.
- Margin Improvement: The company achieved a gross margin of 49.3% in the first quarter, up 100 basis points year-over-year, and despite incurring $216 million in litigation expenses, management remains optimistic about margin enhancement initiatives, suggesting effective cost control measures are in place.
- Tightened Financial Outlook: Boston Beer has narrowed its 2026 volume guidance from “flat to down mid-single digits” to “down low single digits to mid-single digits,” and adjusted its non-GAAP EPS forecast to $8.50 to $10.50, reflecting a cautious stance towards the market environment.
- Significant Legal Risks: The company recorded $216 million in litigation expenses in Q1, with management stating that this will not materially impact operational plans; however, legal risks remain a key uncertainty that could affect investor confidence moving forward.
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Boston Beer (SAM) Q4 2025 Earnings Transcript
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- Limited-Edition Cans: The introduction of 12 collectible city cans representing 11 participating cities and the nation aims to attract consumers through unique designs, promoting sales and enhancing brand loyalty.
- Comprehensive Campaign: The “Drink like a Believer” nationwide campaign will utilize multiple channels to reach fans across the country, increasing brand exposure and engaging more soccer enthusiasts, which is expected to significantly boost sales.
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- Company Announcement: Boston Beer Company has raised its target price for shares.
- New Target Price: The new target price is set at $250, an increase from the previous $230.
See More
Boston Beer Reports Weak Q1 Results Amid Demand Pressure
- Performance Decline: Boston Beer reported a 4% decline in depletions and a 6.9% drop in shipments, with revenue falling 4.4% to $433.9 million, indicating increased demand pressure that negatively impacts market confidence.
- Earnings Miss: The non-GAAP EPS of $1.64 fell short of expectations by $0.33, highlighting challenges in profitability that could affect investor sentiment and future stock performance.
- Margin Improvement: Despite the volume decline, gross margin improved to 49.3% in Q1, driven by procurement savings and brewery efficiencies, indicating effective cost management strategies in a challenging environment.
- Guidance Tightening: The company narrowed its full-year adjusted EPS guidance to $8.50 to $10.50 (midpoint $9.50), below the consensus of $9.89, reflecting a cautious outlook on future performance amid ongoing market pressures.
See More
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- Sales Decline: Boston Beer Company reported a 4% decrease in depletions for Q1 2026, with Truly continuing to lose market share despite Angry Orchard and Dogfish Head experiencing four consecutive quarters of growth, indicating competitive pressures on the brand.
- Margin Improvement: The company achieved a gross margin of 49.3% in the first quarter, up 100 basis points year-over-year, and despite incurring $216 million in litigation expenses, management remains optimistic about margin enhancement initiatives, suggesting effective cost control measures are in place.
- Tightened Financial Outlook: Boston Beer has narrowed its 2026 volume guidance from “flat to down mid-single digits” to “down low single digits to mid-single digits,” and adjusted its non-GAAP EPS forecast to $8.50 to $10.50, reflecting a cautious stance towards the market environment.
- Significant Legal Risks: The company recorded $216 million in litigation expenses in Q1, with management stating that this will not materially impact operational plans; however, legal risks remain a key uncertainty that could affect investor confidence moving forward.
See More
Dogfish Head Collaborates with Survivor for Limited Edition Beer Launch
- Limited Edition Beer Launch: Dogfish Head Craft Brewery has partnered with CBS's Survivor to release a limited-edition beer, Coconut Etiquette, with an ABV of 6.2%, brewed with toasted coconut and tropical fruits, aimed at celebrating the show's 50th anniversary and expected to attract a large fanbase.
- Unique Packaging Design: Each Dogfish Head x Survivor Season 50 Kit is priced at $50 and includes four cans of Coconut Etiquette, a custom pint glass, sticker, and Buff®, available exclusively through www.GiveThemBeer.com, which is anticipated to enhance brand visibility and sales.
- Sales Schedule: The first batch of kits will be available on May 1, with additional drops scheduled for May 6 and 11, and consumers must order by May 11 to ensure delivery before the Survivor season 50 finale, demonstrating the brand's keen awareness of market demand.
- Show Impact: Survivor's 50th season will introduce fan interaction elements, with 24 legendary contestants facing new challenges and decisions, which is expected to draw more viewer attention and further elevate Dogfish Head's brand exposure and market share.
See More
Boston Beer (SAM) Q4 2025 Earnings Transcript
See More
Truly Hard Seltzer Launches Believe, USA Campaign for U.S. Soccer
- Nationwide Search: Truly Hard Seltzer is launching a nationwide search to rename one American town Believe, USA, showcasing support for the U.S. Men's National Soccer Team, which is expected to enhance brand visibility and strengthen emotional connections with consumers.
- Limited-Edition Cans: The introduction of 12 collectible city cans representing 11 participating cities and the nation aims to attract consumers through unique designs, promoting sales and enhancing brand loyalty.
- Comprehensive Campaign: The “Drink like a Believer” nationwide campaign will utilize multiple channels to reach fans across the country, increasing brand exposure and engaging more soccer enthusiasts, which is expected to significantly boost sales.
- Celebrity Endorsement: USMNT star Weston McKennie encourages fans to participate, enhancing brand image and leveraging celebrity influence to attract more consumer attention, further solidifying Truly's market position.
See More
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- New Target Price: The new target price is set at $250, an increase from the previous $230.
See More
