Copper Prices Projected to Rise in 2026 Amidst Concerns Over Diverging Market Forces
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Nov 25 2025
0mins
Should l Buy BHP?
Source: Benzinga
Copper Price Forecast: UBS has raised its copper price targets for 2026 due to tightening supply and increased market deficits, projecting a target of $13,000 per ton by December 2026.
Supply Disruptions: Mine disruptions in Chile, Peru, and Indonesia, particularly at Freeport-McMoRan's Grasberg complex, are contributing to a significant shortfall in copper production, with anticipated deficits of 230,000 tons in 2025 and 407,000 tons in 2026.
Growing Demand: Global copper consumption is expected to rise by 2.8% in both 2025 and 2026, driven by sectors such as electric vehicles and renewable energy, highlighting the increasing value of copper assets.
Strategic Importance: The U.S. government is prioritizing the security of copper and critical minerals, with the Export-Import Bank planning to invest $100 billion to reduce dependence on foreign sources, particularly China and Russia.
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Analyst Views on BHP
Wall Street analysts forecast BHP stock price to fall
3 Analyst Rating
1 Buy
1 Hold
1 Sell
Hold
Current: 78.330
Low
49.50
Averages
56.50
High
68.00
Current: 78.330
Low
49.50
Averages
56.50
High
68.00
About BHP
BHP Group Limited is an Australia-based resources company. The Company is a producer of commodities, including iron ore, copper, nickel, potash and metallurgical (steelmaking) coal. It is focused on offering a range of resources, which provides copper for renewable energy; nickel for electric vehicles; potash for sustainable farming, and iron ore and metallurgical coal for the steel needed for global infrastructure and the energy transition. Its segments include Copper, Iron Ore, and Coal. Its Copper segment is engaged in mining of copper, silver, zinc, molybdenum, uranium, and gold. Its Iron Ore segment is engaged in mining of iron ore. Its Coal segment is engaged in mining of metallurgical coal and energy coal. The Company is also focused on operating Olympic Dam, Prominent Hill, and Carrapateena underground copper-gold mines in South Australia. Its operations are situated in Australia, Europe, China, Japan, India, South Korea, rest of Asia, North America, South America, and others.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Hershey's Performance: Hershey (HSY) is projected to achieve revenue and earnings growth rates of 4.8% and 29.3% for 2026, respectively, with the Zacks consensus estimate for earnings improving by 16.7% over the past 30 days, indicating strong performance and innovation in the snack market.
- BHP Group Dynamics: BHP (BHP) reported a 1% decline in iron ore output but a 4% increase in copper production in Q1 2026, with projected iron ore production between 258-269 million tons, reflecting stability in the global mining market and confidence in future growth.
- Atmos Energy Outlook: Atmos Energy (ATO) expects revenue and earnings growth rates of 18.8% and 9% for 2026, respectively, and has enhanced profitability and shareholder value through strategic acquisitions and new customer additions, showcasing strong potential amid rising natural gas demand.
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- Financial Performance Under Pressure: Project President Adam Lancey stated that unsustainable royalty payments, rising production costs, and fluctuating coal prices have severely impacted financial performance, resulting in zero returns for every dollar invested, indicating serious sustainability issues.
- Increased Cost Pressures: BHP's decision to shutter one of its Queensland coal mines in September further illustrates the company's response to escalating cost pressures, signaling a strategic shift in its approach to the coal market.
- Uncertain Future: Despite strong revenue performance in the past, the lack of profitability and investment returns raises uncertainties about future investment and operational strategies, potentially affecting the company's overall financial health.
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- Copper Production Growth: The company has raised its copper production guidance by 150,000 tons over the next two years, targeting around 2.5 million tons of copper equivalent output annually by 2035, with a projected compound annual growth rate of 3-4% between fiscal 2027 and fiscal 2035.
- South American Project Advancement: The Vicuña joint venture with Lundin has increased the district's copper resource to 47 million tons through recent drilling, with a final investment decision on Stage 1 expected by year-end, potentially yielding an average annual output of 500,000 tons of copper and 800,000 ounces of gold over the first decade.
- Capital Return Commitment: BHP commits to a minimum 50% payout ratio for dividends, having returned over $110 billion to shareholders in the past decade, demonstrating its dedication to creating value for shareholders while maintaining capital discipline.
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- Demand Slowdown: China's copper demand has softened, and smelter activity has slowed; nevertheless, copper is increasingly recognized as a foundational material for 21st-century infrastructure, particularly in electric vehicles and renewable energy applications.
- Strategic Investment: Capital expenditures to maintain current copper production are projected to reach $250 billion over the next decade, shifting market focus to emerging markets, with the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) becoming increasingly significant in global copper production.
- Optimistic Market Outlook: Despite geological challenges, investors remain bullish on copper, anticipating sustained demand growth in electric vehicles, solar energy, and data centers, which will drive industry expansion.
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- Significant Dividend Cut: Anglo declared a dividend of 23 cents per share, approximately $200 million, down 64% from last year's 64 cents per share, reflecting weaker diamond prices and management's decision to preserve balance sheet strength amid portfolio reshaping.
- Strategic Merger: Anglo has agreed to a transformative merger with Teck to create one of the world's largest copper producers, with shareholders approving the deal and regulatory clearances being sought, targeting completion once final approvals are secured.
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- Equity Exchange Agreement: Under the proposed terms, Faraday would acquire BHP's San Manuel property in exchange for a 30% equity interest, along with corresponding shareholder and marketing rights, which will help Faraday strengthen its market position.
- Investment Commitment: BHP has agreed to participate in any Faraday equity raises for two years, investing up to $20 million, which not only provides financial support to Faraday but also demonstrates BHP's confidence in the copper market.
- Historical Context: The San Manuel mine was the largest underground copper mine in the U.S., operating from 1955 to 1999, and was closed due to low copper prices; the restart plan aims to restore its historical significance and support the resilience of the U.S. copper supply chain.
See More
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- Market Volatility Factors: The U.S. stock market has shown mixed performance in 2026, primarily influenced by concerns over AI investment sustainability, Trump's tariffs, and geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, which have heightened the appeal of low-beta stocks for investors seeking stability.
- Hershey's Performance: Hershey (HSY) is projected to achieve revenue and earnings growth rates of 4.8% and 29.3% for 2026, respectively, with the Zacks consensus estimate for earnings improving by 16.7% over the past 30 days, indicating strong performance and innovation in the snack market.
- BHP Group Dynamics: BHP (BHP) reported a 1% decline in iron ore output but a 4% increase in copper production in Q1 2026, with projected iron ore production between 258-269 million tons, reflecting stability in the global mining market and confidence in future growth.
- Atmos Energy Outlook: Atmos Energy (ATO) expects revenue and earnings growth rates of 18.8% and 9% for 2026, respectively, and has enhanced profitability and shareholder value through strategic acquisitions and new customer additions, showcasing strong potential amid rising natural gas demand.
See More
BHP's Coal Operations in Queensland Yield No Returns
- Declining Investment Competitiveness: BHP's coal operations in Queensland are facing significant challenges as they can no longer 'compete for investment,' with the joint venture with Mitsubishi generating over $1.67 billion in revenue in the past six months but remaining entirely unprofitable, highlighting the harsh market conditions.
- Financial Performance Under Pressure: Project President Adam Lancey stated that unsustainable royalty payments, rising production costs, and fluctuating coal prices have severely impacted financial performance, resulting in zero returns for every dollar invested, indicating serious sustainability issues.
- Increased Cost Pressures: BHP's decision to shutter one of its Queensland coal mines in September further illustrates the company's response to escalating cost pressures, signaling a strategic shift in its approach to the coal market.
- Uncertain Future: Despite strong revenue performance in the past, the lack of profitability and investment returns raises uncertainties about future investment and operational strategies, potentially affecting the company's overall financial health.
See More
BHP Reaffirms Diversified Business Model Amid Copper Focus
- Diversification Strategy: CEO Mike Henry reaffirmed at the BMO Capital Markets Conference that BHP will maintain its diversified mining model, despite copper accounting for over half of its EBITDA, showcasing its strong position in the copper market.
- Copper Production Growth: The company has raised its copper production guidance by 150,000 tons over the next two years, targeting around 2.5 million tons of copper equivalent output annually by 2035, with a projected compound annual growth rate of 3-4% between fiscal 2027 and fiscal 2035.
- South American Project Advancement: The Vicuña joint venture with Lundin has increased the district's copper resource to 47 million tons through recent drilling, with a final investment decision on Stage 1 expected by year-end, potentially yielding an average annual output of 500,000 tons of copper and 800,000 ounces of gold over the first decade.
- Capital Return Commitment: BHP commits to a minimum 50% payout ratio for dividends, having returned over $110 billion to shareholders in the past decade, demonstrating its dedication to creating value for shareholders while maintaining capital discipline.
See More
Copper Inventories Exceed 1 Million Tons for First Time in 21 Years
- Inventory Surge: Copper exchange inventories have surpassed 1 million tons for the first time in 21 years, indicating a lack of confidence in long-term supply, even as prices remain elevated compared to January levels, reflecting a tight supply-demand dynamic.
- Demand Slowdown: China's copper demand has softened, and smelter activity has slowed; nevertheless, copper is increasingly recognized as a foundational material for 21st-century infrastructure, particularly in electric vehicles and renewable energy applications.
- Strategic Investment: Capital expenditures to maintain current copper production are projected to reach $250 billion over the next decade, shifting market focus to emerging markets, with the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) becoming increasingly significant in global copper production.
- Optimistic Market Outlook: Despite geological challenges, investors remain bullish on copper, anticipating sustained demand growth in electric vehicles, solar energy, and data centers, which will drive industry expansion.
See More
De Beers Impairment Hits $6.8 Billion Amid Dividend Cut
- Impairment Accumulation: De Beers has recorded total impairments of $6.8 billion over the past year, and despite a 2% increase in operational earnings, the non-cash charge has pushed the group into losses, necessitating a reset of shareholder return strategies.
- Significant Dividend Cut: Anglo declared a dividend of 23 cents per share, approximately $200 million, down 64% from last year's 64 cents per share, reflecting weaker diamond prices and management's decision to preserve balance sheet strength amid portfolio reshaping.
- Strategic Merger: Anglo has agreed to a transformative merger with Teck to create one of the world's largest copper producers, with shareholders approving the deal and regulatory clearances being sought, targeting completion once final approvals are secured.
- De Beers Sale Plan: De Beers is under intense pressure with production declining for three consecutive years, and both Angola and Botswana have expressed interest in increasing their stakes in De Beers, which is currently up for sale with final binding bids expected this year.
See More
BHP Signs Letter of Intent with Faraday to Restart San Manuel Copper Mine
- Copper Mine Restart Plan: BHP has signed a non-binding letter of intent with Faraday Copper to evaluate restarting the San Manuel copper mine in Arizona, aiming to combine it with Faraday's Copper Creek project to create a larger copper development hub, which is expected to enhance U.S. copper supply capabilities.
- Equity Exchange Agreement: Under the proposed terms, Faraday would acquire BHP's San Manuel property in exchange for a 30% equity interest, along with corresponding shareholder and marketing rights, which will help Faraday strengthen its market position.
- Investment Commitment: BHP has agreed to participate in any Faraday equity raises for two years, investing up to $20 million, which not only provides financial support to Faraday but also demonstrates BHP's confidence in the copper market.
- Historical Context: The San Manuel mine was the largest underground copper mine in the U.S., operating from 1955 to 1999, and was closed due to low copper prices; the restart plan aims to restore its historical significance and support the resilience of the U.S. copper supply chain.
See More
