Competitive Analysis of Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 9h ago
0mins
Should l Buy LLY?
Source: Fool
- Eli Lilly's Growth Momentum: Eli Lilly has achieved remarkable results with its GLP-1 products, Mounjaro and Zepbound, generating nearly $12 billion in quarterly sales and projecting full-year revenue between $80 billion and $83 billion, indicating a growth rate as high as 27%, showcasing strong market demand and profitability.
- Novo Nordisk's Challenges: Novo Nordisk is facing intense competition, projecting a decline in adjusted sales growth of 5% to 13% this year, reflecting its unfavorable market position, and is currently engaged in a patent lawsuit against Hims & Hers to protect its market share.
- Significant Valuation Discrepancy: Eli Lilly trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of about 46, while Novo Nordisk stands at just 13, indicating a stark difference in investor sentiment, which may suggest over-optimism for Eli Lilly and potential undervaluation for Novo Nordisk.
- Investment Outlook Analysis: Despite current challenges, Novo Nordisk's rollout of its GLP-1 weight loss pill offers hope for future growth, and considering its more attractive valuation, it may represent a better long-term investment choice compared to Eli Lilly.
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Analyst Views on LLY
Wall Street analysts forecast LLY stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for LLY is 1192 USD with a low forecast of 950.00 USD and a high forecast of 1500 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
20 Analyst Rating
18 Buy
2 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 1058.180
Low
950.00
Averages
1192
High
1500
Current: 1058.180
Low
950.00
Averages
1192
High
1500
About LLY
Eli Lilly and Company is a medicine company, which discovers, develops, manufactures, markets, and sells pharmaceutical products worldwide. Its cardiometabolic health products include Basaglar; Humalog, Humalog Mix 75/25, Humalog U-100, Humalog U-200, Humalog Mix 50/50, insulin lispro, and others; Humulin, Humulin 70/30, and others; Jardiance; Mounjaro; Trulicity; Zepbound; VERVE-102; VERVE-201, and VERVE-301. Its oncology products include Cyramza, Erbitux, Tyvyt, and Verzenio. Its immunology products include Ebglyss, Olumiant, Omvoh, and Taltz. Its neuroscience products include Emgality and Kisunla. The Company is also engaged in radiopharmaceutical discovery, development, and manufacturing efforts, and clinical and pre-clinical radioligand therapies in development for the treatment of cancer. It is also developing an oral small molecule inhibitor of a4b7 integrin for inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). It is evaluating its novel gene therapy candidate, ixoberogene soroparvovec.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Eli Lilly Reports 43% Revenue Growth in Q4 Driven by GLP-1 Products
- Significant Revenue Growth: Eli Lilly's Q4 2025 revenue reached $19.3 billion, marking a 43% year-over-year increase, primarily driven by the robust performance of its GLP-1 products, indicating sustained growth potential in the market.
- Doubling of GLP-1 Sales: Sales of Mounjaro and Zepbound surged by 110% and 123%, respectively, totaling $11.7 billion and accounting for over 60% of the company's total revenue, highlighting the company's heavy reliance on these two drugs.
- Increased Competitive Risks: As other pharmaceutical companies invest billions in developing competing GLP-1 products, Eli Lilly faces heightened market share risks that could impact its future revenue growth and stock performance.
- Valuation Concerns: With a market cap of approximately $950 billion and a price-to-earnings ratio of 46, Eli Lilly's high valuation reflects market expectations for future growth, but also subjects its stock to potential short-term declines, necessitating careful risk assessment by investors.
See More
LILLY SET TO PURCHASE ORNA THERAPEUTICS TO FURTHER CELL THERAPY INITIATIVES
Acquisition Announcement: Lilly has announced its acquisition of Orna Therapeutics, a company focused on advancing cell therapies.
Focus on Cell Therapies: The acquisition aims to enhance Lilly's capabilities in developing innovative cell therapies for various medical conditions.
See More
Capital Group Identifies Attractive Dividend Stock Opportunities
- Dividend Stock Appeal: Christopher Buchbinder from Capital Group highlights the attractiveness of dividend stocks, particularly those rated investment grade with a long history of income payments, which has allowed the CGDV fund to outperform the S&P 500 in down markets.
- Tech Sector Allocation: As of January 31, 26.8% of CGDV's assets are allocated to information technology, particularly semiconductor companies, reflecting the team's confidence in a sustainable AI investment cycle, with expectations that AI will dramatically change lives over the next 5-10 years.
- Energy Sector Opportunities: Although energy comprises only 6.4% of CGDV's portfolio, Buchbinder sees an upcycle in the oil field services sector over the next few years, particularly with Halliburton's collaboration with VoltaGrid to manufacture power systems for AI data centers, indicating long-term growth potential.
- Healthcare Investment: CGDV's largest healthcare holding is Eli Lilly at 3.86%, with Buchbinder believing that the long-term trend of GLP-1 drugs will transform the healthcare landscape in the U.S., positioning Eli Lilly as the market leader while awaiting FDA approval for its oral GLP-1 drug.
See More
Competitive Analysis of Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly
- Eli Lilly's Growth Momentum: Eli Lilly has achieved remarkable results with its GLP-1 products, Mounjaro and Zepbound, generating nearly $12 billion in quarterly sales and projecting full-year revenue between $80 billion and $83 billion, indicating a growth rate as high as 27%, showcasing strong market demand and profitability.
- Novo Nordisk's Challenges: Novo Nordisk is facing intense competition, projecting a decline in adjusted sales growth of 5% to 13% this year, reflecting its unfavorable market position, and is currently engaged in a patent lawsuit against Hims & Hers to protect its market share.
- Significant Valuation Discrepancy: Eli Lilly trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of about 46, while Novo Nordisk stands at just 13, indicating a stark difference in investor sentiment, which may suggest over-optimism for Eli Lilly and potential undervaluation for Novo Nordisk.
- Investment Outlook Analysis: Despite current challenges, Novo Nordisk's rollout of its GLP-1 weight loss pill offers hope for future growth, and considering its more attractive valuation, it may represent a better long-term investment choice compared to Eli Lilly.
See More
FDA Accuses Novo Nordisk of Misleading Wegovy Ad Claims
- FDA Regulatory Warning: The FDA issued a letter to Novo Nordisk on February 5, accusing the company of including 'false or misleading' claims in its Wegovy drug advertisement, demanding immediate corrective actions which may include halting all misleading ads, thereby directly impacting the company's marketing strategy.
- Advertising Content Issues: The FDA highlighted that the ad misleadingly suggests Wegovy offers superior weight loss benefits compared to other approved GLP-1 drugs, using phrases like 'live lighter' and 'a way forward' that imply additional benefits beyond weight loss, yet lacks evidence to support these claims, potentially leading to consumer misunderstanding and affecting market acceptance.
- Market Competition Pressure: Novo Nordisk is under pressure to regain market share from chief rival Eli Lilly and cheaper compounded alternatives, with Wegovy being the first GLP-1 weight loss pill launched in January, already prescribed to over 170,000 American patients; however, the FDA's warning may hinder its marketing and sales strategies.
- Legal Action: Novo Nordisk has also filed a lawsuit against Hims & Hers, seeking to stop the telehealth company from mass marketing compounded versions of its Wegovy pill and injections, indicating the company's proactive stance in protecting its market position and intellectual property.
See More
China Warning Impacts Gold Market Liquidity
- Money Flow Trends: In the Magnificent Seven stocks, Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:MSFT) shows positive early money flows, indicating increased investor confidence that could drive its stock price higher.
- Market Sentiment Analysis: Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL) and Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ:META) exhibit neutral money flows, suggesting investors are taking a wait-and-see approach, which may affect their short-term performance.
- Negative Money Flows: Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN), Alphabet Inc Class C (NASDAQ:GOOG), NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ:NVDA), and Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) experience negative early money flows, reflecting diminished market confidence in these tech stocks, potentially leading to price declines.
- Gold Market Reaction: The warning from China triggers selling in the gold market (CRYPTO:BTC), prompting investors to carefully assess their positions and consider tactical adjustments based on market signals to navigate potential volatility.
See More
Eli Lilly Reports 43% Revenue Growth in Q4 Driven by GLP-1 Products
- Significant Revenue Growth: Eli Lilly's Q4 2025 revenue reached $19.3 billion, marking a 43% year-over-year increase, primarily driven by the robust performance of its GLP-1 products, indicating sustained growth potential in the market.
- Doubling of GLP-1 Sales: Sales of Mounjaro and Zepbound surged by 110% and 123%, respectively, totaling $11.7 billion and accounting for over 60% of the company's total revenue, highlighting the company's heavy reliance on these two drugs.
- Increased Competitive Risks: As other pharmaceutical companies invest billions in developing competing GLP-1 products, Eli Lilly faces heightened market share risks that could impact its future revenue growth and stock performance.
- Valuation Concerns: With a market cap of approximately $950 billion and a price-to-earnings ratio of 46, Eli Lilly's high valuation reflects market expectations for future growth, but also subjects its stock to potential short-term declines, necessitating careful risk assessment by investors.
See More
LILLY SET TO PURCHASE ORNA THERAPEUTICS TO FURTHER CELL THERAPY INITIATIVES
Acquisition Announcement: Lilly has announced its acquisition of Orna Therapeutics, a company focused on advancing cell therapies.
Focus on Cell Therapies: The acquisition aims to enhance Lilly's capabilities in developing innovative cell therapies for various medical conditions.
See More
Capital Group Identifies Attractive Dividend Stock Opportunities
- Dividend Stock Appeal: Christopher Buchbinder from Capital Group highlights the attractiveness of dividend stocks, particularly those rated investment grade with a long history of income payments, which has allowed the CGDV fund to outperform the S&P 500 in down markets.
- Tech Sector Allocation: As of January 31, 26.8% of CGDV's assets are allocated to information technology, particularly semiconductor companies, reflecting the team's confidence in a sustainable AI investment cycle, with expectations that AI will dramatically change lives over the next 5-10 years.
- Energy Sector Opportunities: Although energy comprises only 6.4% of CGDV's portfolio, Buchbinder sees an upcycle in the oil field services sector over the next few years, particularly with Halliburton's collaboration with VoltaGrid to manufacture power systems for AI data centers, indicating long-term growth potential.
- Healthcare Investment: CGDV's largest healthcare holding is Eli Lilly at 3.86%, with Buchbinder believing that the long-term trend of GLP-1 drugs will transform the healthcare landscape in the U.S., positioning Eli Lilly as the market leader while awaiting FDA approval for its oral GLP-1 drug.
See More
Competitive Analysis of Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly
- Eli Lilly's Growth Momentum: Eli Lilly has achieved remarkable results with its GLP-1 products, Mounjaro and Zepbound, generating nearly $12 billion in quarterly sales and projecting full-year revenue between $80 billion and $83 billion, indicating a growth rate as high as 27%, showcasing strong market demand and profitability.
- Novo Nordisk's Challenges: Novo Nordisk is facing intense competition, projecting a decline in adjusted sales growth of 5% to 13% this year, reflecting its unfavorable market position, and is currently engaged in a patent lawsuit against Hims & Hers to protect its market share.
- Significant Valuation Discrepancy: Eli Lilly trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of about 46, while Novo Nordisk stands at just 13, indicating a stark difference in investor sentiment, which may suggest over-optimism for Eli Lilly and potential undervaluation for Novo Nordisk.
- Investment Outlook Analysis: Despite current challenges, Novo Nordisk's rollout of its GLP-1 weight loss pill offers hope for future growth, and considering its more attractive valuation, it may represent a better long-term investment choice compared to Eli Lilly.
See More
FDA Accuses Novo Nordisk of Misleading Wegovy Ad Claims
- FDA Regulatory Warning: The FDA issued a letter to Novo Nordisk on February 5, accusing the company of including 'false or misleading' claims in its Wegovy drug advertisement, demanding immediate corrective actions which may include halting all misleading ads, thereby directly impacting the company's marketing strategy.
- Advertising Content Issues: The FDA highlighted that the ad misleadingly suggests Wegovy offers superior weight loss benefits compared to other approved GLP-1 drugs, using phrases like 'live lighter' and 'a way forward' that imply additional benefits beyond weight loss, yet lacks evidence to support these claims, potentially leading to consumer misunderstanding and affecting market acceptance.
- Market Competition Pressure: Novo Nordisk is under pressure to regain market share from chief rival Eli Lilly and cheaper compounded alternatives, with Wegovy being the first GLP-1 weight loss pill launched in January, already prescribed to over 170,000 American patients; however, the FDA's warning may hinder its marketing and sales strategies.
- Legal Action: Novo Nordisk has also filed a lawsuit against Hims & Hers, seeking to stop the telehealth company from mass marketing compounded versions of its Wegovy pill and injections, indicating the company's proactive stance in protecting its market position and intellectual property.
See More
China Warning Impacts Gold Market Liquidity
- Money Flow Trends: In the Magnificent Seven stocks, Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:MSFT) shows positive early money flows, indicating increased investor confidence that could drive its stock price higher.
- Market Sentiment Analysis: Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL) and Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ:META) exhibit neutral money flows, suggesting investors are taking a wait-and-see approach, which may affect their short-term performance.
- Negative Money Flows: Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN), Alphabet Inc Class C (NASDAQ:GOOG), NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ:NVDA), and Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) experience negative early money flows, reflecting diminished market confidence in these tech stocks, potentially leading to price declines.
- Gold Market Reaction: The warning from China triggers selling in the gold market (CRYPTO:BTC), prompting investors to carefully assess their positions and consider tactical adjustments based on market signals to navigate potential volatility.
See More
