Company Reports Q4 Revenue of $1.13B, In Line with Expectations
Reports Q4 revenue $1.13B, consensus $1.13B. Comparable store sales decreased 4.8%. Brad Paulsen, Chief Executive Officer, stated, "We are pleased to deliver fiscal 2025 fourth quarter diluted earnings per share of $0.36, in line with the midpoint of the earnings guidance provided on our third quarter earnings conference call. For the full fiscal year, diluted earnings per share was $1.92, compared with $1.90 in the prior year. I'm incredibly proud of what our teams accomplished in 2025. Despite pressure on comparable store sales driven by softness in existing home sales activity, we expanded our market share, navigated tariff complexities, increased our gross margin rate, opened 20 new warehouse stores, and delivered year-over-year earnings growth. This performance reflects the resilience of our model and our unwavering commitment to disciplined execution and strategic investments in our future."
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- Earnings Highlights: Floor & Decor reported diluted earnings per share of $0.36 for Q4 2025, aligning with the midpoint of guidance, while full-year EPS reached $1.92; despite a 2% sales increase in Q4, comparable store sales fell by 4.8%, indicating competitive market pressures.
- Market Share Expansion: The company achieved $4.684 billion in sales for FY 2025, a 5.1% increase, and opened 20 new stores, although comparable store sales declined by 1.8%, management emphasized enhancing market competitiveness through supply chain optimization and improved gross margins.
- Future Outlook: The CFO projected 2026 sales between $4.880 billion and $5.030 billion, representing a 4% to 7% increase, with plans to open 20 new warehouse format stores in 2026, reflecting the company's confidence in future growth.
- Operational Efficiency Gains: Management noted that while SG&A expenses rose due to new store openings, the Q4 gross margin remained flat at 43.5%, and net cash provided by operating activities was $381.8 million, demonstrating efforts in cost control and operational efficiency.
- Earnings Performance: Floor & Decor reported a Q4 GAAP EPS of $0.36, beating estimates by $0.01, indicating stable profitability despite a modest revenue growth of 2.7% year-over-year.
- Annual Sales Growth: For the fiscal year ending December 25, 2025, net sales reached $4.684 billion, a 5.1% increase, reflecting the company's sustained growth potential in the market, even as comparable store sales fell by 1.8%.
- Operating Income Increase: Operating income stood at $270.1 million, up 5.4% from fiscal 2024, with an operating margin flat at 5.8%, showcasing the company's success in cost control and efficiency improvements.
- Adjusted EBITDA Growth: Adjusted EBITDA reached $538.2 million, a 5.0% increase, demonstrating robust performance in non-GAAP financial metrics, further bolstering investor confidence in the company's long-term growth prospects.
- Earnings Announcement Schedule: Floor & Decor Holdings is set to release its Q4 earnings on February 19 after market close, with consensus EPS estimate at $0.34, reflecting a 22.7% year-over-year decline, while revenue is expected to reach $1.13 billion, a 2.7% increase year-over-year, which will significantly impact the company's market performance.
- Historical Performance Review: Over the past two years, FND has beaten EPS estimates 88% of the time, indicating strong profitability, although it has only surpassed revenue estimates 38% of the time, suggesting challenges in revenue growth.
- Expectation Revision Dynamics: In the last three months, EPS estimates have seen 2 upward revisions and 5 downward revisions, while revenue estimates experienced 2 upward and 2 downward revisions, reflecting market divergence regarding the company's future performance, which may affect investor confidence.
- Market Environment Analysis: Despite facing macroeconomic challenges, Floor & Decor Holdings is still viewed as an attractive investment opportunity, particularly in the current economic backdrop, prompting investors to closely monitor market reactions following the earnings release.
- AI Market Competition: In 2026, Alphabet's Gemini is expected to achieve market share parity with OpenAI's ChatGPT, which saw a 19-point drop to 68% market share over the past year, while Gemini gained 13 points to reach 18%, indicating strong momentum in generative AI.
- Solar Industry Outlook: Experts predict the solar industry will outperform the market in 2026, with Tyler Crowe asserting that solar is the short-term solution for AI power needs, as its deployment speed surpasses that of natural gas turbines, potentially leading to significant growth in the coming years.
- Housing Market Recovery: Matt Frankel forecasts a 30% rise in average homebuilder stocks in 2026, driven by increased demand for new homes and anticipated rate cuts, which could attract more buyers and stimulate industry recovery.
- Battery Storage Demand: As solar energy becomes more prevalent, battery storage systems will be crucial; Tyler Crowe noted that in 2024, battery systems were the fourth largest source of added grid capacity, highlighting their importance in mitigating solar energy's intermittency.
- Market Share Competition: In 2026, Alphabet's Gemini is expected to achieve market share parity with OpenAI's ChatGPT, which has seen a 19-point drop to 68% over the past year, while Gemini has gained 13 points to reach 18%.
- Technological Advantages: Gemini is not just a chatbot; it also supports technologies like video creation, and with Alphabet's distribution and cloud infrastructure, it is poised to accelerate market penetration and enhance its competitive edge in generative AI.
- Industry Predictions: Analysts believe that while Gemini's market share is growing rapidly, ChatGPT will still face pressure from smaller competitors, indicating potential shifts in the overall market landscape in the coming years.
- Investment Opportunities: As AI technology evolves quickly, investors are encouraged to focus on the potential returns of Gemini and its related technologies, especially given Alphabet's ability to sustain its generative AI business.
- Active Options Trading: Occidental Petroleum Corp (OXY) saw options trading volume of 57,471 contracts today, representing approximately 5.7 million shares, which is about 51.4% of its average daily trading volume over the past month, indicating heightened market interest in its stock.
- High Volume Analysis: The $43 strike call option expiring on January 23, 2026, has seen the highest volume among OXY options, with 8,458 contracts traded today, equating to approximately 845,800 shares, suggesting increased investor expectations for future price appreciation.
- Floor & Decor Options Activity: Floor & Decor Holdings Inc (FND) has recorded an options trading volume of 12,650 contracts today, representing around 1.3 million shares, which constitutes 50% of its average daily trading volume over the past month, reflecting significant market activity for the stock.
- FND High Volume Situation: The $60 strike put option expiring on February 20, 2026, has seen a trading volume of 12,531 contracts today, approximately 1.3 million shares, indicating market concerns regarding potential downside risks for the stock.










