Company Reaffirms 2026 EBITDA Margin Guidance of 16%-18%
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 2 days ago
0mins
Should l Buy SSTI?
The company reaffirmed its adjusted EBITDA margin guidance range of 16% - 18% for 2026. The company also reaffirmed its expectation for annual recurring revenue to increase from $95.4M at the beginning of 2026 to $110M at the start of 2027. The company said, "We are reaffirming our full-year outlook and believe we are well positioned to deliver improved performance as we move through 2026, even without a ShotSpotter contract renewal in Chicago. We await the outcome of the current gunshot detection RFP process that remains underway, and believe our submission represents a comprehensive and compelling proposal. Our long-term financial targets of 70% gross margin and 40% Adjusted EBITDA margin do not include Chicago, as we remain confident in the enduring success of ShotSpotter and accelerating adoption of our broader SafetySmart platform."
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Analyst Views on SSTI
Wall Street analysts forecast SSTI stock price to rise
6 Analyst Rating
3 Buy
3 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 6.570
Low
10.00
Averages
14.20
High
20.00
Current: 6.570
Low
10.00
Averages
14.20
High
20.00
About SSTI
SoundThinking, Inc. is a public safety technology company that delivers artificial intelligence (AI) and data-driven solutions for law enforcement, civic leadership, and security professionals. The Company’s SafetySmart platform includes ShotSpotter, an acoustic gunshot detection system; CrimeTracer, the law enforcement search engine; CaseBuilder, a one-stop investigation management system; ResourceRouter, software that directs patrol and community anti-violence resources to help maximize their impact; SafePointe, an AI-based weapons detection system, and PlateRanger powered by Rekor, an advanced license plate recognition (ALPR) solution. It also offers other security solutions within its flagship product offering, ShotSpotter, including, ShotSpotter for Campus and ShotSpotter for Corporate, which are typically smaller-scale deployments of ShotSpotter vertically marketed to universities, corporate campuses and key infrastructure centers.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
SoundThinking Reports Q1 Earnings Miss
- Earnings Miss: SoundThinking's Q1 GAAP EPS of -$0.54 fell short of expectations by $0.27, indicating challenges in profitability that may affect investor confidence.
- Revenue Decline: The company reported Q1 revenue of $24.18M, a 14.6% year-over-year decrease, missing expectations by $0.09M, reflecting weak market demand that could hinder future growth.
- Annual Growth Target: Despite short-term challenges, SoundThinking aims for a 15% annual recurring revenue growth in 2026, demonstrating confidence in future prospects and strategic adjustments.
- Sales Leadership Enhancement: The company is strengthening its sales leadership to support the expansion of SafePointe, a strategic move aimed at improving market competitiveness and performance outcomes.
See More
SoundThinking, Inc. Q1 2026 Earnings Call Insights
- Revenue Performance: SoundThinking reported Q1 revenue of $24.2 million, down from $28.3 million in Q1 2025, reflecting revenue volatility under cost pressures, although the full-year guidance remains at $109 million to $111 million, indicating management's confidence in future performance.
- Adjusted EBITDA: The adjusted EBITDA for Q1 was approximately negative $100,000, primarily impacted by ongoing product development costs, particularly in the SafePointe project, which is expected to achieve profitability by 2028, highlighting the company's long-term strategic investment in technology.
- Customer Expansion: The company launched ShotSpotter across seven customer accounts and added 50 PlateRanger cameras, demonstrating its market expansion capabilities, while Cleveland's recognition of ShotSpotter technology enhances the company's market reputation, likely boosting future renewals and new contracts.
- Future Outlook: Management reiterated the full-year revenue guidance and expects approximately $50 million in the first half and $60 million in the second half, relying on the upcoming CrimeTracer contract and Puerto Rico renewal, reflecting the company's positive outlook for future growth.
See More
SoundThinking Honors Law Enforcement During National Police Week
- Honoring Officers: SoundThinking pays tribute to the 111 law enforcement officers who lost their lives in 2025 during National Police Week, highlighting the company's commitment to supporting the law enforcement community and raising awareness of the risks they face.
- Community Engagement: The company partners with First Responders' Bridge to enhance officer wellness, hosting webinars to raise awareness about the lasting impacts of trauma, demonstrating its ongoing support for officers and their families.
- Diverse Initiatives: SoundThinking participates in various programs, such as Miami's Do the Right Thing and Strides for Peace's Race Against Gun Violence, aimed at improving public safety through community-driven efforts, showcasing the company's active role in social responsibility.
- Technological Leadership: As a leading public safety technology firm, SoundThinking delivers AI-driven solutions to over 300 customers and approximately 2,100 agencies, driving more efficient and equitable public safety outcomes, thereby reinforcing its leadership position in the industry.
See More
SoundThinking Reports Q4 2025 Earnings with Record Revenue and Strategic Outlook
- Record Revenue: SoundThinking achieved a record revenue of $104.1 million in 2025, reflecting a 2% increase from 2024, demonstrating the company's commitment to critical growth investments that are expected to position it well for future opportunities.
- ARR Growth Outlook: The company anticipates a 15% growth in Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) for 2026, reaching approximately $95.4 million, despite an expected attrition of $3.1 million, indicating sustained demand for its core products.
- Strategic Management Changes: New appointments include Kirk Arthur as Senior VP of Global Sales and Manuel Nylen as VP of Sales for SafePointe, aimed at enhancing the sales team to drive business growth, particularly in the healthcare vertical.
- Revenue Guidance Adjustment: Management has reduced the 2026 revenue guidance from $114 million–$116 million to $109 million–$111 million, primarily due to delays in expected contracts for CrimeTracer and ShotSpotter, reflecting uncertainty in future revenue streams.
See More
SoundThinking Q4 Earnings Report Analysis
- Earnings Performance: SoundThinking reported a Q4 non-GAAP EPS of -$0.20, missing expectations by $0.02, indicating ongoing profitability challenges that may affect investor confidence.
- Revenue Growth: The company achieved revenue of $24.8 million, a 6.0% year-over-year increase, exceeding expectations by $0.11 million, suggesting a degree of growth potential in the market environment that could attract more investor interest.
- Gross Profit Improvement: Gross profit rose by 8% to $12.6 million, representing 51% of revenues, compared to $11.7 million (50%) in the same quarter of 2024, indicating positive progress in cost control and profitability.
- Reduced Net Loss: GAAP net loss totaled $2.8 million, down from $4.1 million in the same quarter of 2024, reflecting improvements in the company's financial health that may lay the groundwork for future profitability.
See More
SoundThinking Scheduled to Announce Q4 Earnings on March 3rd
- Earnings Announcement Schedule: SoundThinking (SSTI) is set to release its Q4 earnings report on March 3rd after market close, drawing significant attention from investors regarding its performance.
- Earnings Expectations: The consensus EPS estimate stands at -$0.18, reflecting a 43.8% year-over-year decline, indicating potential profitability challenges for the company.
- Revenue Forecast: The anticipated revenue for Q4 is $24.69 million, representing a 5.5% year-over-year increase, suggesting some level of market demand despite the modest growth.
- Historical Performance Review: Over the past year, SSTI has failed to beat EPS estimates 100% of the time and has only surpassed revenue estimates 25% of the time, highlighting challenges in the company's earnings stability.
See More
SoundThinking Reports Q1 Earnings Miss
- Earnings Miss: SoundThinking's Q1 GAAP EPS of -$0.54 fell short of expectations by $0.27, indicating challenges in profitability that may affect investor confidence.
- Revenue Decline: The company reported Q1 revenue of $24.18M, a 14.6% year-over-year decrease, missing expectations by $0.09M, reflecting weak market demand that could hinder future growth.
- Annual Growth Target: Despite short-term challenges, SoundThinking aims for a 15% annual recurring revenue growth in 2026, demonstrating confidence in future prospects and strategic adjustments.
- Sales Leadership Enhancement: The company is strengthening its sales leadership to support the expansion of SafePointe, a strategic move aimed at improving market competitiveness and performance outcomes.
See More
SoundThinking, Inc. Q1 2026 Earnings Call Insights
- Revenue Performance: SoundThinking reported Q1 revenue of $24.2 million, down from $28.3 million in Q1 2025, reflecting revenue volatility under cost pressures, although the full-year guidance remains at $109 million to $111 million, indicating management's confidence in future performance.
- Adjusted EBITDA: The adjusted EBITDA for Q1 was approximately negative $100,000, primarily impacted by ongoing product development costs, particularly in the SafePointe project, which is expected to achieve profitability by 2028, highlighting the company's long-term strategic investment in technology.
- Customer Expansion: The company launched ShotSpotter across seven customer accounts and added 50 PlateRanger cameras, demonstrating its market expansion capabilities, while Cleveland's recognition of ShotSpotter technology enhances the company's market reputation, likely boosting future renewals and new contracts.
- Future Outlook: Management reiterated the full-year revenue guidance and expects approximately $50 million in the first half and $60 million in the second half, relying on the upcoming CrimeTracer contract and Puerto Rico renewal, reflecting the company's positive outlook for future growth.
See More
SoundThinking Honors Law Enforcement During National Police Week
- Honoring Officers: SoundThinking pays tribute to the 111 law enforcement officers who lost their lives in 2025 during National Police Week, highlighting the company's commitment to supporting the law enforcement community and raising awareness of the risks they face.
- Community Engagement: The company partners with First Responders' Bridge to enhance officer wellness, hosting webinars to raise awareness about the lasting impacts of trauma, demonstrating its ongoing support for officers and their families.
- Diverse Initiatives: SoundThinking participates in various programs, such as Miami's Do the Right Thing and Strides for Peace's Race Against Gun Violence, aimed at improving public safety through community-driven efforts, showcasing the company's active role in social responsibility.
- Technological Leadership: As a leading public safety technology firm, SoundThinking delivers AI-driven solutions to over 300 customers and approximately 2,100 agencies, driving more efficient and equitable public safety outcomes, thereby reinforcing its leadership position in the industry.
See More
SoundThinking Reports Q4 2025 Earnings with Record Revenue and Strategic Outlook
- Record Revenue: SoundThinking achieved a record revenue of $104.1 million in 2025, reflecting a 2% increase from 2024, demonstrating the company's commitment to critical growth investments that are expected to position it well for future opportunities.
- ARR Growth Outlook: The company anticipates a 15% growth in Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) for 2026, reaching approximately $95.4 million, despite an expected attrition of $3.1 million, indicating sustained demand for its core products.
- Strategic Management Changes: New appointments include Kirk Arthur as Senior VP of Global Sales and Manuel Nylen as VP of Sales for SafePointe, aimed at enhancing the sales team to drive business growth, particularly in the healthcare vertical.
- Revenue Guidance Adjustment: Management has reduced the 2026 revenue guidance from $114 million–$116 million to $109 million–$111 million, primarily due to delays in expected contracts for CrimeTracer and ShotSpotter, reflecting uncertainty in future revenue streams.
See More
SoundThinking Q4 Earnings Report Analysis
- Earnings Performance: SoundThinking reported a Q4 non-GAAP EPS of -$0.20, missing expectations by $0.02, indicating ongoing profitability challenges that may affect investor confidence.
- Revenue Growth: The company achieved revenue of $24.8 million, a 6.0% year-over-year increase, exceeding expectations by $0.11 million, suggesting a degree of growth potential in the market environment that could attract more investor interest.
- Gross Profit Improvement: Gross profit rose by 8% to $12.6 million, representing 51% of revenues, compared to $11.7 million (50%) in the same quarter of 2024, indicating positive progress in cost control and profitability.
- Reduced Net Loss: GAAP net loss totaled $2.8 million, down from $4.1 million in the same quarter of 2024, reflecting improvements in the company's financial health that may lay the groundwork for future profitability.
See More
SoundThinking Scheduled to Announce Q4 Earnings on March 3rd
- Earnings Announcement Schedule: SoundThinking (SSTI) is set to release its Q4 earnings report on March 3rd after market close, drawing significant attention from investors regarding its performance.
- Earnings Expectations: The consensus EPS estimate stands at -$0.18, reflecting a 43.8% year-over-year decline, indicating potential profitability challenges for the company.
- Revenue Forecast: The anticipated revenue for Q4 is $24.69 million, representing a 5.5% year-over-year increase, suggesting some level of market demand despite the modest growth.
- Historical Performance Review: Over the past year, SSTI has failed to beat EPS estimates 100% of the time and has only surpassed revenue estimates 25% of the time, highlighting challenges in the company's earnings stability.
See More
