CLSA Anticipates Pressure on Trip.com's Short-Term Profit Margin as China's Antitrust Actions Normalize
Investigation into TRIP.COM-S: China's State Administration for Market Regulation is investigating TRIP.COM-S for potential monopolistic behavior, leading to a significant drop in its ADR price by 17%.
Impact on Profit Margins: CLSA predicts that TRIP.COM-S may face pressure on profit margins in the short term as it might need to offer more support to merchants, despite retaining competitiveness due to its transaction volume and relationships with hotels.
Short Selling Activity: The company has experienced substantial short selling, amounting to $708.57 million, with a short selling ratio of 22.748%.
Future Antitrust Actions: CLSA suggests that China's antitrust actions may become more routine, indicating a broader trend in regulatory scrutiny within the market.
Trade with 70% Backtested Accuracy
Analyst Views on 09961
About the author
CLSA: TONGCHENGTRAVEL Expected to Gain Little from TRIP.COM-S Antitrust Probe; Rating Remains Hold
Agentic AI and OTAs: The narrative of agentic AI overtaking online travel agencies (OTAs) is prevalent in the US, but stricter supply chain controls in China mitigate this risk for local OTAs.
TONGCHENGTRAVEL's Future: CLSA forecasts that TONGCHENGTRAVEL's hotel management business will significantly contribute to revenue growth by 2026, maintaining a target price of $22 and a Hold rating.
Impact of Antitrust Investigation: CLSA notes that TONGCHENGTRAVEL may not benefit from the antitrust investigation of TRIP.COM-S, as a large portion of its hotel trading volume relies on TRIP.COM-S' inventory.
Market Reactions: Citi reports that agentic AI's impact on the sector is limited in the short to mid-term, maintaining Buy ratings for both Trip.com and TONGCHENGTRAVEL.
TRIP.COM-S Drops Approximately 6%; Reports Indicate Certain Platforms Benefiting from Official Free Waitlist Ticketing Feature of 12306 Railway Ticketing Site
Stock Performance: TRIP.COM-S (09961.HK) experienced a significant decline, opening 1.7% lower and settling at HK$456.8, down 5.78%, with a trading volume of 6.8988 million shares.
Short Selling Activity: The stock saw short selling amounting to $389.10 million, with a short selling ratio of 10.806%.
Controversial Ticketing Practices: A commentary from Xinhua News Agency criticized platforms for misrepresenting the official free waitlist ticketing function of the 12306 railway website as "paid privileges," promoting misleading "acceleration packages" and "VIP channels."
Consumer Rights Concerns: The article highlighted the potential risks to consumer rights due to the opaque nature of these services and urged passengers to utilize official channels to avoid unnecessary fees.
TRIP.COM-S Falls Over 5%, MEITUAN-W Hits Nearly 2-Year Low Amid Travel Restrictions
US Stock Market Reaction: The three major US stock indices softened following the US military's action against an Iranian drone, while precious metals, particularly gold, saw an increase, surpassing the US$5,000 mark.
Hong Kong Stock Market Performance: The Hong Kong Stock Exchange opened lower, with the HSI declining nearly 0.6% to close at 26,676 points, amid significant trading activity.
Travel Platform Stocks Decline: Stocks related to travel platforms, including TRIP.COM and MEITUAN, experienced notable declines, with TRIP.COM dropping over 6% and MEITUAN hitting a nearly two-year low.
Short Selling Activity: There was significant short selling in various stocks, with TRIP.COM and MEITUAN showing high short selling ratios, indicating bearish sentiment among investors.
Citi Anticipates TRIP.COM-S 4Q25 Results to Align with Expectations, Lowers US Stock Price Target to $82 Due to Survey Effects
Citi Research Forecast: Citi Research anticipates TRIP.COM-S's 4Q25 revenue and adjusted operating profit to align with market expectations, with potential market share expansion and benefits from a rebound in average daily rates in the domestic hotel sector.
Earnings Adjustments: The broker has reduced its adjusted earnings forecasts for 2026 and 2027 by 9% and 5%, respectively, and lowered the target price for Trip.com Group's US stock from $86 to $82 due to anticipated impacts on the domestic hotel business.
Antitrust Investigation Impact: UBS predicts that Trip.com’s share price will remain range-bound in the near term as the market has already factored in the effects of the ongoing antitrust investigation.
Investment Outlook: Despite the challenges, Citi Research maintains a Buy rating on TRIP.COM-S, citing its industry-leading position and the expectation of clearer visibility on fundamentals once the investigation concludes.
BofAS Lowers TRIP.COM's Target Price to HKD612, Anticipates 7% Year-over-Year Increase in Last Quarter's Adjusted Net Profit
Company Performance: TRIP.COM-S is expected to report a 16% year-over-year increase in net revenue for Q4 2025, reaching RMB14.9 billion, driven by growth in hotel accommodation and transportation ticketing.
Profit Expectations: Under non-GAAP standards, the company anticipates an 18% increase in operating profit and a 7% rise in net profit, both aligning with market forecasts.
Market Sentiment: BofA Securities has maintained a Buy rating for TRIP.COM-S but has lowered its target price from HKD667 to HKD612.
Short Selling Activity: The stock has seen significant short selling activity, with a ratio of 27.484% and a total short selling amount of $324.00 million.
UBS Predicts Trip.com Stock Prices Will Stay Stable in the Short Term Following Initial Market Reaction to Antitrust Investigation
Antitrust Investigation Impact: TRIP.COM-S's share price has dropped due to an antitrust investigation, but the market has largely absorbed the news according to UBS.
Investor Concerns: Investors are worried about potential future penalties that could impact TRIP.COM-S's business model, fee structure, or market share.
Stock Performance Outlook: UBS anticipates that the stock will remain range-bound in the short term as the financial impact of the investigation is difficult to assess beyond potential fines.
Target Price and Ratings: UBS maintains a target price of USD90 for Trip.com and HKD700 for its H-shares, both rated as Buy.
CLSA: TONGCHENGTRAVEL Expected to Gain Little from TRIP.COM-S Antitrust Probe; Rating Remains Hold
Agentic AI and OTAs: The narrative of agentic AI overtaking online travel agencies (OTAs) is prevalent in the US, but stricter supply chain controls in China mitigate this risk for local OTAs.
TONGCHENGTRAVEL's Future: CLSA forecasts that TONGCHENGTRAVEL's hotel management business will significantly contribute to revenue growth by 2026, maintaining a target price of $22 and a Hold rating.
Impact of Antitrust Investigation: CLSA notes that TONGCHENGTRAVEL may not benefit from the antitrust investigation of TRIP.COM-S, as a large portion of its hotel trading volume relies on TRIP.COM-S' inventory.
Market Reactions: Citi reports that agentic AI's impact on the sector is limited in the short to mid-term, maintaining Buy ratings for both Trip.com and TONGCHENGTRAVEL.
TRIP.COM-S Drops Approximately 6%; Reports Indicate Certain Platforms Benefiting from Official Free Waitlist Ticketing Feature of 12306 Railway Ticketing Site
Stock Performance: TRIP.COM-S (09961.HK) experienced a significant decline, opening 1.7% lower and settling at HK$456.8, down 5.78%, with a trading volume of 6.8988 million shares.
Short Selling Activity: The stock saw short selling amounting to $389.10 million, with a short selling ratio of 10.806%.
Controversial Ticketing Practices: A commentary from Xinhua News Agency criticized platforms for misrepresenting the official free waitlist ticketing function of the 12306 railway website as "paid privileges," promoting misleading "acceleration packages" and "VIP channels."
Consumer Rights Concerns: The article highlighted the potential risks to consumer rights due to the opaque nature of these services and urged passengers to utilize official channels to avoid unnecessary fees.
TRIP.COM-S Falls Over 5%, MEITUAN-W Hits Nearly 2-Year Low Amid Travel Restrictions
US Stock Market Reaction: The three major US stock indices softened following the US military's action against an Iranian drone, while precious metals, particularly gold, saw an increase, surpassing the US$5,000 mark.
Hong Kong Stock Market Performance: The Hong Kong Stock Exchange opened lower, with the HSI declining nearly 0.6% to close at 26,676 points, amid significant trading activity.
Travel Platform Stocks Decline: Stocks related to travel platforms, including TRIP.COM and MEITUAN, experienced notable declines, with TRIP.COM dropping over 6% and MEITUAN hitting a nearly two-year low.
Short Selling Activity: There was significant short selling in various stocks, with TRIP.COM and MEITUAN showing high short selling ratios, indicating bearish sentiment among investors.
Citi Anticipates TRIP.COM-S 4Q25 Results to Align with Expectations, Lowers US Stock Price Target to $82 Due to Survey Effects
Citi Research Forecast: Citi Research anticipates TRIP.COM-S's 4Q25 revenue and adjusted operating profit to align with market expectations, with potential market share expansion and benefits from a rebound in average daily rates in the domestic hotel sector.
Earnings Adjustments: The broker has reduced its adjusted earnings forecasts for 2026 and 2027 by 9% and 5%, respectively, and lowered the target price for Trip.com Group's US stock from $86 to $82 due to anticipated impacts on the domestic hotel business.
Antitrust Investigation Impact: UBS predicts that Trip.com’s share price will remain range-bound in the near term as the market has already factored in the effects of the ongoing antitrust investigation.
Investment Outlook: Despite the challenges, Citi Research maintains a Buy rating on TRIP.COM-S, citing its industry-leading position and the expectation of clearer visibility on fundamentals once the investigation concludes.
BofAS Lowers TRIP.COM's Target Price to HKD612, Anticipates 7% Year-over-Year Increase in Last Quarter's Adjusted Net Profit
Company Performance: TRIP.COM-S is expected to report a 16% year-over-year increase in net revenue for Q4 2025, reaching RMB14.9 billion, driven by growth in hotel accommodation and transportation ticketing.
Profit Expectations: Under non-GAAP standards, the company anticipates an 18% increase in operating profit and a 7% rise in net profit, both aligning with market forecasts.
Market Sentiment: BofA Securities has maintained a Buy rating for TRIP.COM-S but has lowered its target price from HKD667 to HKD612.
Short Selling Activity: The stock has seen significant short selling activity, with a ratio of 27.484% and a total short selling amount of $324.00 million.
UBS Predicts Trip.com Stock Prices Will Stay Stable in the Short Term Following Initial Market Reaction to Antitrust Investigation
Antitrust Investigation Impact: TRIP.COM-S's share price has dropped due to an antitrust investigation, but the market has largely absorbed the news according to UBS.
Investor Concerns: Investors are worried about potential future penalties that could impact TRIP.COM-S's business model, fee structure, or market share.
Stock Performance Outlook: UBS anticipates that the stock will remain range-bound in the short term as the financial impact of the investigation is difficult to assess beyond potential fines.
Target Price and Ratings: UBS maintains a target price of USD90 for Trip.com and HKD700 for its H-shares, both rated as Buy.
