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TRIP.COM-S Drops Approximately 6%; Reports Indicate Certain Platforms Benefiting from Official Free Waitlist Ticketing Feature of 12306 Railway Ticketing Site

4.5

02-04aastocks

TRIP.COM-S Falls Over 5%, MEITUAN-W Hits Nearly 2-Year Low Amid Travel Restrictions

6.5

01-30aastocks

Citi Anticipates TRIP.COM-S 4Q25 Results to Align with Expectations, Lowers US Stock Price Target to $82 Due to Survey Effects

4.0

01-28aastocks

BofAS Lowers TRIP.COM's Target Price to HKD612, Anticipates 7% Year-over-Year Increase in Last Quarter's Adjusted Net Profit

6.5

01-26aastocks

UBS Predicts Trip.com Stock Prices Will Stay Stable in the Short Term Following Initial Market Reaction to Antitrust Investigation

Money Flow

Over the past 66 trading days, overall net money flow is 319.93M, with retail investors contributing -101.76M and major investors adding 513.00M.

Net Buy $ Volume

Net Sell $ Volume

Citi

Citi Research

Buy

downgrade

$86 -> $82

2026-01-30

Reason

Citi Research maintained a "Buy" rating for TRIP.COM-S (09961.HK) due to its industry-leading position and expectations that the company's 4Q25 revenue and adjusted operating profit will align with market expectations. The firm anticipates that TRIP.COM-S will continue to expand its market share during the peak season and benefit from a rebound in average daily rates and growth in room nights in its domestic hotel business. However, they lowered their adjusted earnings forecasts for 2026 and 2027 to account for potential impacts on the domestic hotel business and adjusted the target price for Trip.com Group's US stock. The rating reflects confidence in the company's fundamentals, especially once the ongoing antitrust investigation concludes, providing clearer visibility for investors.

Citi

Buy

Price Target

$86 -> $82

2026-01-30

downgrade

Citi Research maintained a "Buy" rating for TRIP.COM-S (09961.HK) due to its industry-leading position and expectations that the company's 4Q25 revenue and adjusted operating profit will align with market expectations. The firm anticipates that TRIP.COM-S will continue to expand its market share during the peak season and benefit from a rebound in average daily rates and growth in room nights in its domestic hotel business. However, they lowered their adjusted earnings forecasts for 2026 and 2027 to account for potential impacts on the domestic hotel business and adjusted the target price for Trip.com Group's US stock. The rating reflects confidence in the company's fundamentals, especially once the ongoing antitrust investigation concludes, providing clearer visibility for investors.

UBS

Buy

maintain

$90 -> $90

2026-01-26

Reason

The analyst rating from UBS is influenced by the ongoing antitrust investigation into TRIP.COM-S, which has caused the company's share price to decline. Despite this, UBS believes the market has largely absorbed the news. The primary concern for investors is the potential for future penalties that could impact TRIP.COM-S' business model, fee structure, or market share. UBS finds it challenging to predict the financial implications of the investigation beyond potential fines, leading them to expect the stock to remain range-bound in the short term. Nevertheless, UBS maintains a positive outlook with a target price of USD90 for Trip.com and HKD700 for its H-shares, both rated as Buy.

UBS

Buy

Price Target

$90 -> $90

2026-01-26

maintain

The analyst rating from UBS is influenced by the ongoing antitrust investigation into TRIP.COM-S, which has caused the company's share price to decline. Despite this, UBS believes the market has largely absorbed the news. The primary concern for investors is the potential for future penalties that could impact TRIP.COM-S' business model, fee structure, or market share. UBS finds it challenging to predict the financial implications of the investigation beyond potential fines, leading them to expect the stock to remain range-bound in the short term. Nevertheless, UBS maintains a positive outlook with a target price of USD90 for Trip.com and HKD700 for its H-shares, both rated as Buy.

JPMorgan

Overweight

maintain

$90 -> $700

2026-01-19

Reason

The analyst rating from JPMorgan for TRIP.COM-S (09961.HK) is "Overweight" based on several key reasons: 1. Constructive Outlook Despite Investigation: JPMorgan believes that even if the State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR) requires TRIP.COM-S to stop its automatic repricing mechanism, it will not significantly disrupt the company's domestic hotel distribution model. 2. Dominant Market Position: TRIP.COM-S holds a dominant position in the online travel agency market, with a market share of about 70-80%. This gives hotels a strong incentive to maintain competitive prices on the platform, which limits the likelihood of significant price adjustments away from TRIP.COM-S. 3. Valuation Perspective: The current price corresponds to a 15x forecasted P/E ratio for 2026, which is considered at the low end of the valuation range for leading internet stocks in China. While this is attractive, it is not viewed as a significant undervaluation. 4. Market Consensus Considerations: The market consensus has not yet fully accounted for the potential that TRIP.COM-S may intentionally suppress earnings during the investigation period, which could affect future valuations. Overall, these factors contribute to JPMorgan's positive outlook and "Overweight" rating for TRIP.COM-S.

JPMorgan

Overweight

Price Target

$90 -> $700

2026-01-19

maintain

The analyst rating from JPMorgan for TRIP.COM-S (09961.HK) is "Overweight" based on several key reasons: 1. Constructive Outlook Despite Investigation: JPMorgan believes that even if the State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR) requires TRIP.COM-S to stop its automatic repricing mechanism, it will not significantly disrupt the company's domestic hotel distribution model. 2. Dominant Market Position: TRIP.COM-S holds a dominant position in the online travel agency market, with a market share of about 70-80%. This gives hotels a strong incentive to maintain competitive prices on the platform, which limits the likelihood of significant price adjustments away from TRIP.COM-S. 3. Valuation Perspective: The current price corresponds to a 15x forecasted P/E ratio for 2026, which is considered at the low end of the valuation range for leading internet stocks in China. While this is attractive, it is not viewed as a significant undervaluation. 4. Market Consensus Considerations: The market consensus has not yet fully accounted for the potential that TRIP.COM-S may intentionally suppress earnings during the investigation period, which could affect future valuations. Overall, these factors contribute to JPMorgan's positive outlook and "Overweight" rating for TRIP.COM-S.

CMBI

Buy

maintain

$76 -> $83

2025-11-19

Reason

The analyst rating for TRIP.COM-S (09961.HK) was maintained as a "Buy" and the target price was raised from USD 76 to USD 83 due to several positive factors. The company reported a year-over-year revenue increase of 15.5% in its 3Q25 total revenue, which was 1% higher than both the broker's and market expectations. Additionally, TRIP.COM-S achieved a non-GAAP operating profit of RMB 6.1 billion, exceeding CMBI's expectations by 5%. The significant one-off gain from the sale of MakeMyTrip shares also contributed to a non-GAAP net profit of RMB 19.2 billion, which was substantially above the market expectation of RMB 5.6 billion. These results indicate strong operating leverage and overall better-than-expected financial performance, justifying the positive rating and increased target price.

CMBI

Buy

Price Target

$76 -> $83

2025-11-19

maintain

The analyst rating for TRIP.COM-S (09961.HK) was maintained as a "Buy" and the target price was raised from USD 76 to USD 83 due to several positive factors. The company reported a year-over-year revenue increase of 15.5% in its 3Q25 total revenue, which was 1% higher than both the broker's and market expectations. Additionally, TRIP.COM-S achieved a non-GAAP operating profit of RMB 6.1 billion, exceeding CMBI's expectations by 5%. The significant one-off gain from the sale of MakeMyTrip shares also contributed to a non-GAAP net profit of RMB 19.2 billion, which was substantially above the market expectation of RMB 5.6 billion. These results indicate strong operating leverage and overall better-than-expected financial performance, justifying the positive rating and increased target price.

BOCI

Buy

upgrade

$630 -> $638

2025-11-19

Reason

The analyst rating for TRIP.COM-S (09961.HK) is based on the company's strong 3Q25 financial performance, which exceeded market expectations with a 16% increase in revenue and a 12% growth in non-GAAP operating profit year-over-year. This growth reflects significant progress in traffic acquisition in both domestic and international markets. Despite potential impacts from recent tensions between China and Japan on outbound business, the overall effect on TRIP.COM-S' revenue is considered relatively limited, as evidenced by the experience of reduced Chinese tourism to Thailand. Consequently, BOCI has reiterated a Buy rating and raised the target price from HKD630 to HKD638.

BOCI

Buy

Price Target

$630 -> $638

2025-11-19

upgrade

The analyst rating for TRIP.COM-S (09961.HK) is based on the company's strong 3Q25 financial performance, which exceeded market expectations with a 16% increase in revenue and a 12% growth in non-GAAP operating profit year-over-year. This growth reflects significant progress in traffic acquisition in both domestic and international markets. Despite potential impacts from recent tensions between China and Japan on outbound business, the overall effect on TRIP.COM-S' revenue is considered relatively limited, as evidenced by the experience of reduced Chinese tourism to Thailand. Consequently, BOCI has reiterated a Buy rating and raised the target price from HKD630 to HKD638.

CLSA

upgrade

$75 -> $82

2025-11-19

Reason

The analyst rating for TRIP.COM-S (09961.HK) has been maintained as "Outperform" due to several positive factors highlighted in the CLSA research report. The company's 3Q25 results exceeded expectations, with total revenue and adjusted EBIT increasing by 15.5% and 11.7% year-over-year, respectively. Additionally, significant growth in outbound and international travel businesses—over 20% and 60% year-over-year—was noted, driven by increased popularity of long-distance travel during peak seasons. Furthermore, CLSA raised its 2025 full-year adjusted earnings forecast by 80% to account for strong performance in 4Q25 and the proceeds from the sale of MakeMyTrip shares. Consequently, the target price for TRIP.COM-S was increased from USD 75 to USD 82.

CLSA

Price Target

$75 -> $82

2025-11-19

upgrade

The analyst rating for TRIP.COM-S (09961.HK) has been maintained as "Outperform" due to several positive factors highlighted in the CLSA research report. The company's 3Q25 results exceeded expectations, with total revenue and adjusted EBIT increasing by 15.5% and 11.7% year-over-year, respectively. Additionally, significant growth in outbound and international travel businesses—over 20% and 60% year-over-year—was noted, driven by increased popularity of long-distance travel during peak seasons. Furthermore, CLSA raised its 2025 full-year adjusted earnings forecast by 80% to account for strong performance in 4Q25 and the proceeds from the sale of MakeMyTrip shares. Consequently, the target price for TRIP.COM-S was increased from USD 75 to USD 82.

UOB Kay Hian

Buy

maintain

$725 -> $727

2025-11-19

Reason

The analyst rating for TRIP.COM-S (09961.HK) was maintained at "Buy" due to the company's 3Q25 results beating expectations, with a revenue increase of 15.5% year-over-year to RMB18.4 billion, aligning with market consensus. Additionally, the forecast for 4Q25 revenue growth of 15-20% YoY to RMB16.7 billion also met market expectations. As a result, the broker raised its target price from $725 to $727.

UOB Kay Hian

Buy

Price Target

$725 -> $727

2025-11-19

maintain

The analyst rating for TRIP.COM-S (09961.HK) was maintained at "Buy" due to the company's 3Q25 results beating expectations, with a revenue increase of 15.5% year-over-year to RMB18.4 billion, aligning with market consensus. Additionally, the forecast for 4Q25 revenue growth of 15-20% YoY to RMB16.7 billion also met market expectations. As a result, the broker raised its target price from $725 to $727.

Valuation Metrics

Forward PE

N/A

5Y Average PE

17.94

Current PE

17.18

Overvalued PE

139.73

Undervalued PE

-103.85

Forward EV/EBITDA

N/A

5Y Average EV/EBITDA

26.28

Current EV/EBITDA

0.00

Overvalued EV/EBITDA

54.24

Undervalued EV/EBITDA

-1.68

Forward PS

N/A

5Y Average PS

4.60

Current PS

0.00

Overvalued PS

5.57

Undervalued PS

3.63

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