Centene Q4 2025 Earnings Exceed Expectations

Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst

Source: seekingalpha

Updated: 1h ago

0mins

CNC-2.54%

Should l Buy CNC?

Source: seekingalpha

Earnings Highlights: Centene reported a Q4 2025 non-GAAP EPS of -$1.19, beating expectations by $0.03, indicating resilience in profitability despite challenges.
Revenue Growth: The company achieved $49.73 billion in revenue for Q4, a 21.9% year-over-year increase that surpassed market expectations by $1.38 billion, reflecting strong demand in the healthcare sector and an increase in market share.
HBR Performance: The consolidated HBR for Q4 reached 94.3%, with a commercial HBR of 95.4%, exceeding expectations by 100 basis points, showcasing effective management of healthcare costs.
Future Outlook: The adjusted diluted EPS guidance for 2026 is greater than $3.00, compared to the consensus of $2.99, demonstrating the company's confidence in future growth, which may attract more investor interest.

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Analyst Views on CNC

Wall Street analysts forecast CNC stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for CNC is 43.07 USD with a low forecast of 32.00 USD and a high forecast of 59.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

15 Analyst Rating

5 Buy

8 Hold

2 Sell

Hold

Current: 40.960

Low

32.00

Averages

43.07

High

59.00

Current: 40.960

Low

32.00

Averages

43.07

High

59.00

Mizuho

Neutral

maintain

$40 -> $47

2026-01-09

Reason

Mizuho

Price Target

$40 -> $47

AI Analysis

2026-01-09

maintain

Neutral

Reason

Mizuho raised the firm's price target on Centene to $47 from $40 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm updated targets in the healthcare facilities and managed care group as part of a Q4 preview. Mizuho's physician survey indicated healthcare utilization growth trends decelerated sequentially despite easier year-over-year comps, which could indicate trend is peaking, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

Wells Fargo

Equal Weight

maintain

$35 -> $43

2026-01-07

Reason

Wells Fargo

Price Target

$35 -> $43

2026-01-07

maintain

Equal Weight

Reason

Wells Fargo raised the firm's price target on Centene to $43 from $35 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. For managed care organizations, the firm is most constructive on Medicare Advantage with uncertainty high for Medicaid/Exchanges. Wells sees a more difficult backdrop for hospitals in 2026 as post-COVID tailwinds wane and legislative risks near. Distributor debate remains revisions vs. multiples.

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About CNC

Centene Corporation is a healthcare company. The Company provides fully integrated services to government-sponsored and commercial healthcare programs, focusing on under-insured and uninsured individuals. Its segments include Medicaid, Medicare, Commercial and Other. Specifically, the Medicaid segment includes the Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) program, Medicaid Expansion programs, the Aged, Blind or Disabled (ABD) program, the Children's Health Insurance Program (CHIP), Long-Term Services and Supports (LTSS), Foster Care, Medicare-Medicaid Plans (MMP), which cover beneficiaries who are dually eligible for Medicaid and Medicare and other state-based programs. The Medicare segment includes Medicare Advantage, Medicare Supplement, Dual Eligible Special Needs Plans and Medicare Prescription Drug Plans. The Commercial segment includes the Health Insurance Marketplace product along with individual, small group, and large group commercial health insurance products.

About the author

Emily J. Thompson

Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.

Centene to Announce Q4 Earnings on February 6

18 hours agoseekingalpha

Earnings Announcement Date: Centene (CNC) is set to release its Q4 earnings on February 6 before market open, with a consensus EPS estimate of -$1.22, reflecting a significant year-over-year decline of 252.5%, indicating substantial profitability challenges ahead.
Revenue Growth Expectations: The revenue estimate for Q4 stands at $48.35 billion, representing an 18.5% year-over-year increase, suggesting that despite declining profitability, Centene continues to exhibit strong revenue growth, potentially indicating an expansion in market share.
Historical Performance Review: Over the past two years, Centene has beaten EPS estimates 75% of the time and revenue estimates 100% of the time, demonstrating a track record of financial stability, even amidst current challenges.
Estimate Revision Dynamics: In the last three months, EPS estimates have seen one upward revision and nine downward revisions, while revenue estimates have experienced five upward revisions with no downward adjustments, reflecting market uncertainty and divergence regarding Centene's future performance.

Centene Issues 2026 Profit Guidance Exceeding Expectations

29 minutes agoseekingalpha

Profit Guidance Exceeds Expectations: Centene forecasts a non-GAAP EPS of over $3.00 for 2026, surpassing Wall Street's average estimate of $2.88, indicating improved profitability amid rising healthcare costs.
Strong Q4 Performance: The company reported Q4 revenue of $49.73 billion, a 21.9% year-over-year increase, with premium and service revenues rising 23% to $44.7 billion, driven by membership growth in the prescription drug plan and market expansion.
Improved Health Benefits Ratio: The expected health benefits ratio for 2026 is projected to range between 90.9% and 91.7%, an improvement from 91.9% in 2025, reflecting the company's efforts in managing medical costs effectively.
Robust Cash Position: Centene ended the year with $38.8 billion in cash, investments, and restricted deposits, including $400 million available for general corporate use, demonstrating financial stability in a turbulent market environment.

Centene Reports 2025 Losses with 2026 EPS Guidance Above $3.00

44 minutes agoPRnewswire

Financial Overview: Centene reported total revenues of $19.48 billion for 2025, with fourth-quarter revenues of $4.97 billion reflecting an 11% year-over-year growth, indicating stability in the healthcare insurance market despite challenges.
Earnings Analysis: The company recorded a GAAP diluted loss per share of $13.53 for 2025, while adjusted diluted earnings per share stood at $2.08, with guidance for 2026 suggesting adjusted EPS will exceed $3.00, highlighting a positive outlook for restoring profitability.
Membership Trends: As of December 31, 2025, Centene's total membership reached 27.63 million, a decrease of approximately 970,000 from 2024, reflecting pressures from increased competition in the market.
Operational Efficiency Gains: The company generated $437 million in cash flow from operations in 2025, despite facing medical claims liabilities of $20.54 billion, demonstrating ongoing efforts in cash management and operational efficiency.

Centene Reports 2025 Financial Results: Losses Amid Growth

58 minutes agoNewsfilter

Financial Overview: Centene's total revenue for Q4 2025 reached $49.725 billion, a 23% increase year-over-year, with full-year revenue at $194.777 billion, indicating significant growth potential despite challenges.
Adjusted EPS Guidance: The company expects adjusted diluted EPS for 2026 to exceed $3.00, marking important progress in restoring profitability and reflecting management's confidence in future performance.
Health Benefits Ratio Improvement: The health benefits ratio for Q4 2025 was 94.3%, up from 89.6% in Q4 2024, primarily driven by rising medical costs in the marketplace, highlighting ongoing cost control challenges.
Non-Cash Impairment Loss: Centene recorded a non-cash impairment charge of $513 million related to the pending divestiture of Magellan Health, which will impact the company's financials but also pave the way for future strategic restructuring.