Barclays Downgrades Kennametal to Underweight Amid Tungsten Price Concerns
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: May 27 2026
0mins
Source: seekingalpha
- Rating Downgrade Impact: Barclays downgraded Kennametal (KMT) from Equal Weight to Underweight with a price target cut from $40 to $33, resulting in a 6.2% drop in its stock price on Wednesday, reflecting market concerns over future profitability.
- Tungsten Price Downside Risk: The analyst noted that tungsten prices, after a long-term rise, are showing signs of fatigue, and any easing of tensions in Iran could accelerate price declines, posing significant risks to Kennametal's earnings, especially given the company's inability to sustainably expand operating margins over the past decade.
- Earnings Forecast Adjustment: A decline in tungsten prices could lead to substantial downside risks for Kennametal's headline earnings, with the analyst suggesting that if the stock trades at an ex-tungsten P/E similar to its historical average of around 15x, it could imply a share price of approximately $25, indicating current overvaluation.
- Market Reaction Analysis: Kennametal's P/E ratio is significantly high compared to its historical levels, leading the analyst to believe that market expectations for its future profitability are overly optimistic, particularly in light of tungsten price volatility, which may prompt investors to reassess its investment value.
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Analyst Views on KMT
Wall Street analysts forecast KMT stock price to fall
6 Analyst Rating
1 Buy
3 Hold
2 Sell
Hold
Current: 36.360
Low
25.00
Averages
29.83
High
40.00
Current: 36.360
Low
25.00
Averages
29.83
High
40.00
About KMT
Kennametal Inc. is an industrial technology company. The Company helps customers in the aerospace and defense, earthworks, energy, general engineering and transportation end markets. The Company's core expertise includes the development and application of tungsten carbides, ceramics, super-hard materials and solutions used in metal cutting and extreme wear applications to keep customers up and running longer against conditions such as corrosion and high temperatures. The Company operates through two segments: Metal Cutting and Infrastructure. The Metal Cutting segment develops and manufactures high-performance tooling and metal cutting products and services and offers an assortment of standard and custom metal cutting solutions. The Infrastructure segment produces engineered tungsten carbide and ceramic components, earth-cutting tools, and advanced metallurgical powders. Its wear-resistant products include compacts, nozzles, frac seats and others.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Credit Facility Expansion: Concurrently with the new loan, Kennametal increased its revolving credit facility to $850 million, utilizing the accordion feature of the existing facility, ensuring enhanced financial flexibility without altering existing terms.
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- Strong Growth Potential: Cummins boasts an expected earnings growth rate of 23.2%, and its diversified presence in the global power solutions market enhances its competitive edge, potentially increasing shareholder returns.
- Industry-Leading Performance: Kennametal's expected earnings growth rate of 123.1% highlights its leadership in advanced materials and industrial solutions, which may draw significant investor interest.
- Increased Market Attention: As the trend of earnings acceleration becomes evident, investor focus on these three companies (Costco, Cummins, and Kennametal) is expected to rise significantly, potentially leading to positive stock price reactions and boosting market investment enthusiasm.
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- Valuation Metrics Combination: The assessment utilizes a combination of valuation metrics, including P/E, PEG, and EV/Sales ratios, leveraging both current and forward estimates to provide investors with a comprehensive market insight.
- Leading Companies Performance: Among the cheapest stocks, American Airlines Group (AAL) and Allegiant Travel (ALGT) received A+ ratings, indicating their relative value advantages in the industry, which may attract investor interest.
- Market Dynamics Impact: As the U.S. travel industry faces challenges, such as plans to withdraw CBP agents from major airports, airlines may need to adjust strategies to navigate potential market volatility and competitive pressures.
See More
Brandes Investment Partners Reduces Stake in Kennametal
- Stake Reduction Details: Brandes Investment Partners sold 4,965,772 shares of Kennametal in Q1 2026, with an estimated transaction value of $180.99 million, indicating a strategic portfolio adjustment rather than a negative outlook on the company.
- Value Change in Holdings: Following the sale, Brandes's position in Kennametal decreased to 5,265,280 shares, with a quarter-end value of $190.23 million, reflecting a $100.43 million decline over the quarter due to both share sales and price fluctuations.
- Company Performance Highlights: Kennametal's stock surged 50% over the past year, with Q3 revenue rising 22% year-over-year to $593 million and adjusted EPS increasing 65% to $0.77, showcasing strong performance amid rising manufacturing demand and tungsten prices.
- Strategic Adjustments and Financing: In response to soaring tungsten prices, Kennametal secured $700 million in liquidity through a new term loan and expanded credit facility, extending debt maturities to 2036, demonstrating its adaptability to market changes.
See More
Brandes Investment Partners Reduces Kennametal Stake
- Share Reduction Details: Brandes Investment Partners sold 4,965,772 shares of Kennametal in Q1, with an estimated transaction value of $180.99 million, indicating a portfolio rebalancing rather than a bearish outlook on the company's fundamentals.
- Position Value Decline: Post-sale, Brandes holds 5,265,280 shares valued at $190.23 million, reflecting a decrease of $100.43 million over the quarter, which highlights the impact of trading activity and price fluctuations on the investment portfolio.
- Company Performance: Kennametal's stock has surged approximately 50% over the past year, with Q3 revenue rising 22% year-over-year to $593 million and adjusted EPS increasing 65% to $0.77, showcasing strong performance driven by robust manufacturing demand and a favorable tungsten market.
- Liquidity Management Actions: In response to increased working capital needs due to soaring tungsten prices, Kennametal secured $700 million in liquidity through a new term loan and expanded credit facility, extending debt maturities to 2036, which underscores the company's strategic focus on long-term value creation.
See More
Kennametal Inc. Financing Transactions Enhance Liquidity and Flexibility
- Financing Overview: Kennametal Inc. announced a series of financing transactions aimed at enhancing liquidity and extending debt maturities, thereby supporting near-term tungsten-related working capital needs and positioning the company to capture growth opportunities amid market recovery.
- Increased Financial Flexibility: These transactions not only maintain the company's existing investment-grade credit ratings but also enhance liquidity, ensuring the ability to respond to future market developments and showcasing a unique competitive advantage in the tungsten market.
- Market Opportunity Capture: President and CEO Sanjay Chowbey indicated that with market recovery and progress on strategic initiatives, the company anticipates share gain and volume growth, further solidifying its market position.
- Long-term Strategic Planning: This financing not only addresses short-term funding needs but also lays the groundwork for future growth, demonstrating the company's commitment to maintaining financial discipline while proactively addressing market challenges.
See More
Kennametal Inc. Financing Transactions Enhance Liquidity and Flexibility
- Financing Overview: Kennametal Inc. has announced a series of financing transactions, including raising an additional $700 million in liquidity and a new 3-year $500 million term loan, aimed at enhancing liquidity and extending debt maturities to capture near-term growth opportunities in the tungsten market.
- Debt Restructuring: The company successfully refinanced $300 million in bonds, extending their maturity to 2036, which helps maintain its investment-grade credit rating and provides flexibility to respond to future market developments.
- Credit Facility Expansion: Concurrently with the new loan, Kennametal increased its revolving credit facility to $850 million, utilizing the accordion feature of the existing facility, ensuring enhanced financial flexibility without altering existing terms.
- Market Outlook: The CEO indicated that with market recovery and progress on strategic initiatives, the company expects to gain market share and increase volume, with these financing transactions supporting near-term working capital needs related to tungsten.
See More
