Astrana Health Stock Plummets 22% Amid Medicare Payment Concerns
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 1d ago
0mins
Source: Benzinga
- Significant Stock Drop: Astrana Health Inc. shares fell approximately 22% to close at $21.48 on Tuesday, primarily due to CMS's proposed 0.09% payment growth for Medicare Advantage in 2027, indicating weak payment growth that could impact future revenues.
- High Revenue Dependency: Analysts noted that Medicare accounts for about 61% of Astrana Health's revenue, and despite the sharp decline, the stock's drop was more severe than peers like Agilon Health and Alignment Healthcare, which fell around 10% and 12%, respectively, reflecting greater market concerns about Astrana.
- Differentiated Risk Adjustment Practices: Analyst William Blair highlighted that Astrana Health's risk adjustment practices differ from larger payers, relying on direct patient care rather than audio-only visits or standalone chart reviews, resulting in lower exposure to the risk score impacts proposed by CMS.
- Long-Term Value Potential: Despite short-term pressures, analysts believe that CMS's proposals could enhance the company's long-term value, as payers will need to rely on fully delegated care delivery partners to manage patients and costs, potentially leading to more delegated contract agreements in 2027 and beyond.
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Analyst Views on ASTH
Wall Street analysts forecast ASTH stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ASTH is 31.50 USD with a low forecast of 26.00 USD and a high forecast of 37.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
8 Analyst Rating
6 Buy
2 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 21.480
Low
26.00
Averages
31.50
High
37.00
Current: 21.480
Low
26.00
Averages
31.50
High
37.00
About ASTH
Astrana Health, Inc. is a physician-centric, artificial intelligence (AI)-powered healthcare company focused on delivering patient-centered care. The Company provides care coordination services to each major constituent of the healthcare delivery system, including patients, families, primary care physicians, specialists, acute care hospitals, alternative sites of inpatient care, physician groups, and health plans. The Company's segments include Care Partners, Care Delivery, and Care Enablement. Its Care Partners segment is focused on building and managing provider networks by partnering with, empowering, and investing in provider partners aligned on a shared vision for coordinated care delivery. Its Care Delivery organization includes primary care, multi-specialty care, and ancillary care services. Its Care Enablement segment represents a comprehensive platform that integrates clinical, operational, financial, and administrative information. It supports more than 20,000 providers.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Astrana Health Stock Plummets 22% Amid Medicare Payment Concerns
- Significant Stock Drop: Astrana Health Inc. shares fell approximately 22% to close at $21.48 on Tuesday, primarily due to CMS's proposed 0.09% payment growth for Medicare Advantage in 2027, indicating weak payment growth that could impact future revenues.
- High Revenue Dependency: Analysts noted that Medicare accounts for about 61% of Astrana Health's revenue, and despite the sharp decline, the stock's drop was more severe than peers like Agilon Health and Alignment Healthcare, which fell around 10% and 12%, respectively, reflecting greater market concerns about Astrana.
- Differentiated Risk Adjustment Practices: Analyst William Blair highlighted that Astrana Health's risk adjustment practices differ from larger payers, relying on direct patient care rather than audio-only visits or standalone chart reviews, resulting in lower exposure to the risk score impacts proposed by CMS.
- Long-Term Value Potential: Despite short-term pressures, analysts believe that CMS's proposals could enhance the company's long-term value, as payers will need to rely on fully delegated care delivery partners to manage patients and costs, potentially leading to more delegated contract agreements in 2027 and beyond.
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Astrana Health to Present at 2026 JP Morgan Healthcare Conference, Showcasing AI Innovations
- Conference Participation: Astrana Health will present at the J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference on January 12, 2026, in San Francisco, showcasing its latest advancements in healthcare technology, which is expected to attract investor and industry attention, thereby enhancing the company's visibility in the healthcare sector.
- Technology-Driven: As a physician-centric, AI-powered healthcare company, Astrana Health supports over 20,000 providers and 1.6 million patients through its proprietary technology platform and aligned provider networks, driving the implementation of value-based care that enhances patient experiences and outcomes.
- Market Positioning: Astrana Health's business model integrates scalable care delivery infrastructure with proactive preventive care capabilities, aiming to improve the overall value of the healthcare system and strengthen the company's strategic position in a competitive healthcare market.
- Future Outlook: By participating in key industry conferences, Astrana Health not only showcases its technological innovations but also paves the way for future investment opportunities, further solidifying its leadership position in the healthcare sector.
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