Analysis of SpaceX IPO Prospects and Market Potential
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Jun 08 2026
0mins
Source: NASDAQ.COM
- Massive Market Potential: SpaceX claims a total addressable market of $28.5 trillion, with $26.5 trillion focused on artificial intelligence, highlighting the company's significant strategic position in future technological advancements.
- IPO Valuation Target: SpaceX aims for a valuation of $1.77 trillion in its IPO, raising up to $75 billion in new capital, which will be rapidly deployed to accelerate investments in AI and space technologies.
- Investor Caution: Despite the optimistic market outlook for SpaceX, a Morningstar report indicates the company's current valuation at only $780 billion, below the IPO's upper target, advising investors to be cautious when participating in the IPO.
- AI Development Risks: SpaceX's investments in AI carry substantial risks, as the company aims to become the largest AI firm globally, yet this division remains unprofitable and faces increasing competition from other major tech players.
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Analyst Views on MORN
Wall Street analysts forecast MORN stock price to rise
2 Analyst Rating
2 Buy
0 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 153.410
Low
250.00
Averages
285.00
High
320.00
Current: 153.410
Low
250.00
Averages
285.00
High
320.00
About MORN
Morningstar, Inc. is a provider of independent investment insights. The Company's segments include Morningstar Direct Platform, PitchBook, Morningstar Credit, Morningstar Wealth, and Morningstar Retirement. The Morningstar Direct Platform provides investors with data, research and insights, and investment analysis to empower investment decision-making. The PitchBook provides investors with access to data, research, analytics, and artificial intelligence (AI) enabled software across private capital markets, including venture capital, private equity, private credit, bank loans, and mergers & acquisitions (M&A). Morningstar Credit provides investors with credit ratings, research, data, and credit analytics solutions. Morningstar Wealth provides investment products, investor tools, and an advisor platform powered by research and data. The Morningstar Retirement offers products designed to help individuals reach retirement goals.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Market Dominance: Although the stock has pulled back post-IPO, SpaceX continues to dominate the satellite internet services market, with robust performance in its Falcon 9 rocket launches and Starship reusable spacecraft, ensuring long-term growth potential for the business.
- Valuation Concerns: Former Nasdaq CEO Bob Greifeld warned that SpaceX's stock price is disconnected from its fundamentals, with a limited float and inclusion in major indexes like Nasdaq-100 inflating its value; Morningstar analysts suggest a fair value of $63 per share, significantly lower than its current market cap.
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- Market Outlook Analysis: While SpaceX is currently the only IPO stock available for investment, analysts caution that its valuation may be excessive, recommending that investors wait for a more attractive entry point, whereas Anthropic's upcoming IPO is viewed as a potentially more promising investment opportunity.
See More
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- Climate Risk Product Development: Morningstar Sustainalytics collaborates with XDI and Veridion to address a critical gap in existing climate risk tools by translating physical hazard exposure into financially relevant insights, aiding asset managers and owners in making informed investment decisions.
- Asset Materiality Assessment: The newly introduced Asset Materiality Assessment methodology will help investors identify which physical assets are crucial to a company's core business activities, thereby clarifying the weighting of climate risk signals in relation to operations and long-term earnings capacity.
- Data Integration Capabilities: XDI's Climate Risk Engines will combine sub-asset data and climate modeling to assess how climate hazards translate into operational disruptions, while Veridion provides the mapping of companies to their physical assets globally, enhancing data accessibility and accuracy.
- Investment Decision Support: By integrating asset-level climate risk data with company-level financial signals, Morningstar's product aims to provide investors with a comprehensive view that spans granular exposure details to portfolio-level financial implications, facilitating more effective risk management and portfolio construction.
See More
SpaceX IPO Valuation Reaches $1.8 Trillion
- Spectacular IPO Performance: SpaceX's initial public offering (IPO) achieved a valuation of approximately $1.8 trillion, propelling it into the ranks of the top ten companies by market capitalization, reflecting strong market confidence in its growth prospects.
- Market Dominance: Although the stock has pulled back post-IPO, SpaceX continues to dominate the satellite internet services market, with robust performance in its Falcon 9 rocket launches and Starship reusable spacecraft, ensuring long-term growth potential for the business.
- Valuation Concerns: Former Nasdaq CEO Bob Greifeld warned that SpaceX's stock price is disconnected from its fundamentals, with a limited float and inclusion in major indexes like Nasdaq-100 inflating its value; Morningstar analysts suggest a fair value of $63 per share, significantly lower than its current market cap.
- Future Growth Outlook: Despite the current stock price not being attractive for investors, analysts remain optimistic about SpaceX's business model, predicting strong growth in the coming years, particularly in the commercialization of space opportunities.
See More
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- Impressive IPO Valuation: SpaceX's initial public offering (IPO) valuation of approximately $1.8 trillion positioned it among the top ten companies by market cap, and despite a recent pullback, its market standing remains robust.
- Strong Business Outlook: SpaceX continues to dominate the satellite internet services market, with its Falcon 9 rockets and Starship reusable spacecraft maintaining strong launch business, showcasing the company's competitive edge in the aerospace sector.
- Valuation Concerns: While SpaceX's fundamentals remain unchanged, former Nasdaq CEO Bob Greifeld warned that the stock price is disconnected from its true value, primarily due to a restricted float and inclusion in major indexes like the Nasdaq-100.
- Future Investment Opportunities: Morningstar analysts estimate SpaceX's fair value at $63 per share, translating to a market cap of about $830 billion, significantly lower than its current valuation, suggesting a potentially more attractive entry point later this year.
See More
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- Economic Growth Setback: Stanford professor Nicholas Bloom estimates that by 2025, Brexit will reduce the UK's GDP by 6-8%, reflecting a combination of heightened uncertainty, reduced demand, and misallocation of resources, indicating long-term negative impacts on the economy.
- Immigration Policy Changes: Post-Brexit, the UK has seen net emigration from EU countries, while immigration from non-EU states surged due to labor shortages and increased international students, presenting new challenges for the UK's immigration policy and affecting labor market dynamics.
- Pound Depreciation: Following the Brexit vote, the pound has depreciated by approximately 10% and has yet to recover to pre-referendum levels, leading to increased costs for imported goods and assets, which exacerbates the cost of living pressures for UK citizens, particularly in essential areas like food and energy.
- Divergent Stock Market Performance: The FTSE 100 has outperformed the domestically-focused FTSE 250 due to its global revenue exposure, yet the overall market performance has not kept pace with the gains seen in U.S. equity markets, highlighting the ongoing impact of Brexit on investor confidence.
See More
Comparing Three Major IPOs: SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI
- SpaceX Valuation Surge: SpaceX's IPO price initially valued the company at approximately $1.8 trillion, but by June 19, 2026, its market cap soared to $2.4 trillion, making it the sixth-largest company by market cap, reflecting strong investor confidence in its growth prospects.
- Anthropic Revenue Explosion: Anthropic's revenue run rate reached $14 billion by February 2026 and topped $47 billion by May 28, 2026, indicating robust market demand despite significant expenses that challenge profitability, with its valuation nearing $1 trillion.
- OpenAI's Success and Challenges: Following the launch of ChatGPT, OpenAI experienced rapid growth, generating $1 billion in quarterly revenue by the end of 2024 and $2 billion monthly by March 2026; however, it faced a staggering loss of $38.5 billion last year, highlighting the pressure of high expenditures on profitability.
- Investment Recommendations and Outlook: Currently, SpaceX is the only IPO stock available for investors, although a significant price pullback is anticipated once insiders can sell their shares; nonetheless, Anthropic's revenue growth and future prospects position it as the most anticipated IPO among the three.
See More
SpaceX Achieves Record-Breaking IPO Valuation
- SpaceX IPO Performance: SpaceX successfully went public on June 12, 2026, with an IPO price that valued the company at approximately $1.8 trillion, which soared to $2.4 trillion shortly after, making it the sixth-largest company by market cap, reflecting strong investor confidence in its growth prospects.
- Anthropic Revenue Surge: Anthropic's revenue run rate reached $14 billion by February 2026 and topped $47 billion by May 2026, with a valuation nearing $1 trillion, indicating robust growth in the AI sector, although its significant infrastructure expenses remain a challenge.
- OpenAI Financial Status: OpenAI's ChatGPT rapidly gained 100 million active users post-launch, generating $2 billion in monthly revenue by March 2026; however, it reported a staggering loss of $38.5 billion last year, highlighting financial pressures amid rapid expansion.
- Market Outlook Analysis: While SpaceX is currently the only IPO stock available for investment, analysts caution that its valuation may be excessive, recommending that investors wait for a more attractive entry point, whereas Anthropic's upcoming IPO is viewed as a potentially more promising investment opportunity.
See More
