Analysis of SpaceX IPO Impact on Space Stocks
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 4 days ago
0mins
Source: Fool
- Space Stock Performance: Intuitive Machines saw a 71% increase in stock price over the past four months, reflecting market enthusiasm for the space sector driven by SpaceX IPO expectations, although the stock fell 10% on the IPO day.
- Investor Behavior: As the SpaceX IPO approaches, investors may be selling off other space stocks to raise cash, leading to a decline in Intuitive Machines' stock price, indicating that the focus on SpaceX could negatively impact other companies' stock performance.
- Market Expectations: Despite Intuitive Machines' strong performance in recent months, its profitability remains inferior to SpaceX, which may lead investors to be more cautious in their investment choices, particularly in the context of the SpaceX IPO.
- Future Outlook: While the SpaceX IPO may affect the stock prices of other space companies, Intuitive Machines could still stand out if it achieves profitability, especially as market attention increasingly shifts towards earnings potential.
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Analyst Views on LUNR
Wall Street analysts forecast LUNR stock price to fall
10 Analyst Rating
8 Buy
1 Hold
1 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 25.760
Low
9.50
Averages
17.74
High
25.00
Current: 25.760
Low
9.50
Averages
17.74
High
25.00
About LUNR
Intuitive Machines, Inc. is a space technology, infrastructure, and services company. It is a provider and supplier of space products and services that enable sustained robotic and human exploration to the Moon, Mars, and beyond. Its services include delivery services, data transmission services, and infrastructure as a service. Its delivery services provide transportation and delivery of payloads, such as satellites, scientific instruments and cargo to various destinations in space, in addition to rideshare delivery and lunar surface access. Its data transmission services offerings include the collection, processing, and interpretation of space-based data, utilizing applications, such as command, control, communications, reconnaissance and prospecting. Its infrastructure as a service delivers space assets, performing tasks and making decisions without human intervention that are designed to perform essential functions, such as navigation, scientific data collection, and others.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Intuitive Machines Stock Falls 23.5% Amid SpaceX IPO
- Stock Decline: Intuitive Machines' stock has fallen 23.5% since SpaceX's IPO, reflecting a waning investor confidence in second-tier space stocks, leading to capital outflows towards the industry leader, SpaceX.
- Market Reaction: As of 10:50 AM today, Intuitive's stock dropped another 9%, while SpaceX's stock gained 10%, indicating a growing preference among investors for SpaceX, further suppressing Intuitive's market performance.
- Options Market Dynamics: Although call options for Intuitive outnumber put options at a 1.6-to-1 ratio, suggesting some investors expect a turnaround, this difference is not substantial, reflecting a cautious market outlook on its future.
- Valuation Gap: Intuitive trades at less than 10x sales compared to SpaceX's 130x, despite both being unprofitable; this significant valuation gap may close over time, potentially pushing Intuitive's stock price upward.
See More
SpaceX IPO Sparks Wall Street Attention
- Market Volatility Risk: SpaceX's IPO, valued at approximately $1.75 trillion, has generated high expectations; however, historical trends indicate that stocks can experience significant volatility post-IPO, necessitating cautious risk assessment by investors.
- Infrastructure Development Opportunity: The SpaceX listing represents not just a public offering but an infrastructure event that propels the growth of the space economy, involving Starlink's satellite network expansion and new ground station construction, which is expected to attract more customers and partners.
- Intuitive Machines Opportunity: Intuitive Machines secured a $180.4 million NASA contract, with projected revenues of $900 million to $1 billion in 2026, and its collaboration with SpaceX is set to enhance its market position and drive lunar economic development.
- AST SpaceMobile Outlook: AST SpaceMobile aims to deploy around 45 satellites in orbit by the end of 2026; despite execution challenges, its partnership with SpaceX is likely to bolster its competitiveness in the global mobile broadband market, drawing increased investor interest.
See More
SpaceX Expansion Fuels Growth in Space Economy
- Surge in Market Demand: SpaceX's expansion of Starlink and launch capabilities is driving demand across the broader space economy, with direct beneficiaries like Intuitive Machines and AST SpaceMobile relying on SpaceX launches and poised to benefit from increased investments in lunar missions and satellite connectivity.
- Opportunity for Intuitive Machines: The company secured a $180.4 million contract from NASA to deliver seven science and technology payloads to the lunar South Pole in March 2026, and its backlog reached $1.055 billion in Q1 2026, nearly tripling year-over-year, indicating strong growth potential in the commercial space sector.
- Strategic Shift for AST SpaceMobile: This company is building a satellite-based mobile broadband network and has secured multi-year commercial agreements with AT&T and Vodafone, targeting approximately 45 satellites in orbit by year-end 2026; despite market volatility, its long-term opportunities remain significant.
- Viasat's Defense Advantage: While Viasat faces competition from Starlink in the consumer broadband market, its government and defense communications business is growing, and the successful launch of the ViaSat-3 F3 satellite on April 29 will further strengthen its position in the defense sector.
See More
Space Stocks Diverge as Rocket Lab Gains Amid Broader Decline
- Rocket Lab's Resilience: Despite a drop of over 10%, Rocket Lab announced its upcoming inclusion in the Nasdaq-100 index, which is expected to attract more investment from index funds, highlighting its business stability and market recognition.
- AST SpaceMobile's Hard Hit: AST SpaceMobile's stock fell more than 15%, generating only $14.7 million in revenue in Q1 while holding a market value in the tens of billions, indicating the speculative nature of its business model and investor concerns about its future development.
- Intuitive Machines' Revenue Surge: Intuitive Machines saw a drop of about 13%, yet its Q1 sales reached $187 million, nearly tripling year-over-year, with a backlog of $1.1 billion, showcasing its visibility into future revenue.
- Market Sentiment Fluctuations: Investor enthusiasm for SpaceX led to a rotation of funds; while the short-term drop in these stocks may be noise, high-flying space stocks often face larger corrections when market sentiment shifts.
See More
SpaceX Debut Triggers Volatility in Space Stocks
- Market Reaction Analysis: SpaceX surged approximately 19% on its debut, while space stocks like Rocket Lab, AST SpaceMobile, and Intuitive Machines saw significant declines of over 10%, 15%, and 13% respectively, highlighting a stark contrast between investor enthusiasm for new shares and indifference towards existing space stocks.
- Capital Rotation Phenomenon: Analysts suggest that investors may have sold existing space stocks to free up cash for SpaceX shares, indicating that while this capital movement impacted stock prices in the short term, it may not reflect fundamental changes in these companies.
- Rocket Lab's Performance: Despite its stock decline, Rocket Lab is set to join the Nasdaq-100 index, which is expected to attract more investment from index funds, and its first-quarter revenue rose approximately 63.5% year-over-year, demonstrating the robustness of its business.
- AST SpaceMobile Risks: AST SpaceMobile's stock fell over 15%, with first-quarter revenue at just $14.7 million while its market value is in the tens of billions, indicating a highly speculative business model and cash burn risk, despite holding over $3 billion to fund its satellite network construction.
See More
SpaceX IPO Triggers Plunge in Space Stocks
- Market Reaction: SpaceX's debut saw a 28% surge in stock price, achieving a valuation exceeding $2 trillion, yet the overall decline in space stocks indicates investors are locking in profits while maintaining confidence in the sector's potential.
- Price Volatility: Shares of Rocket Lab and Planet Labs fell approximately 8% each, Intuitive Machines dropped 11%, and Virgin Galactic plummeted 28%, reflecting concerns over the high valuations in the space industry.
- Investor Behavior: Analysts suggest that investors may be engaging in capital recycling to allocate funds for SpaceX, indicating that the market's enthusiasm for the space sector might face reality checks.
- Industry Outlook: Despite space stocks rising between 34% and 89% this year, analysts express concerns over their steep valuations, suggesting that such gains may not be sustainable, particularly following SpaceX's IPO.
See More
Intuitive Machines Stock Falls 23.5% Amid SpaceX IPO
- Stock Decline: Intuitive Machines' stock has fallen 23.5% since SpaceX's IPO, reflecting a waning investor confidence in second-tier space stocks, leading to capital outflows towards the industry leader, SpaceX.
- Market Reaction: As of 10:50 AM today, Intuitive's stock dropped another 9%, while SpaceX's stock gained 10%, indicating a growing preference among investors for SpaceX, further suppressing Intuitive's market performance.
- Options Market Dynamics: Although call options for Intuitive outnumber put options at a 1.6-to-1 ratio, suggesting some investors expect a turnaround, this difference is not substantial, reflecting a cautious market outlook on its future.
- Valuation Gap: Intuitive trades at less than 10x sales compared to SpaceX's 130x, despite both being unprofitable; this significant valuation gap may close over time, potentially pushing Intuitive's stock price upward.
See More
SpaceX IPO Sparks Wall Street Attention
- Market Volatility Risk: SpaceX's IPO, valued at approximately $1.75 trillion, has generated high expectations; however, historical trends indicate that stocks can experience significant volatility post-IPO, necessitating cautious risk assessment by investors.
- Infrastructure Development Opportunity: The SpaceX listing represents not just a public offering but an infrastructure event that propels the growth of the space economy, involving Starlink's satellite network expansion and new ground station construction, which is expected to attract more customers and partners.
- Intuitive Machines Opportunity: Intuitive Machines secured a $180.4 million NASA contract, with projected revenues of $900 million to $1 billion in 2026, and its collaboration with SpaceX is set to enhance its market position and drive lunar economic development.
- AST SpaceMobile Outlook: AST SpaceMobile aims to deploy around 45 satellites in orbit by the end of 2026; despite execution challenges, its partnership with SpaceX is likely to bolster its competitiveness in the global mobile broadband market, drawing increased investor interest.
See More
SpaceX Expansion Fuels Growth in Space Economy
- Surge in Market Demand: SpaceX's expansion of Starlink and launch capabilities is driving demand across the broader space economy, with direct beneficiaries like Intuitive Machines and AST SpaceMobile relying on SpaceX launches and poised to benefit from increased investments in lunar missions and satellite connectivity.
- Opportunity for Intuitive Machines: The company secured a $180.4 million contract from NASA to deliver seven science and technology payloads to the lunar South Pole in March 2026, and its backlog reached $1.055 billion in Q1 2026, nearly tripling year-over-year, indicating strong growth potential in the commercial space sector.
- Strategic Shift for AST SpaceMobile: This company is building a satellite-based mobile broadband network and has secured multi-year commercial agreements with AT&T and Vodafone, targeting approximately 45 satellites in orbit by year-end 2026; despite market volatility, its long-term opportunities remain significant.
- Viasat's Defense Advantage: While Viasat faces competition from Starlink in the consumer broadband market, its government and defense communications business is growing, and the successful launch of the ViaSat-3 F3 satellite on April 29 will further strengthen its position in the defense sector.
See More
Space Stocks Diverge as Rocket Lab Gains Amid Broader Decline
- Rocket Lab's Resilience: Despite a drop of over 10%, Rocket Lab announced its upcoming inclusion in the Nasdaq-100 index, which is expected to attract more investment from index funds, highlighting its business stability and market recognition.
- AST SpaceMobile's Hard Hit: AST SpaceMobile's stock fell more than 15%, generating only $14.7 million in revenue in Q1 while holding a market value in the tens of billions, indicating the speculative nature of its business model and investor concerns about its future development.
- Intuitive Machines' Revenue Surge: Intuitive Machines saw a drop of about 13%, yet its Q1 sales reached $187 million, nearly tripling year-over-year, with a backlog of $1.1 billion, showcasing its visibility into future revenue.
- Market Sentiment Fluctuations: Investor enthusiasm for SpaceX led to a rotation of funds; while the short-term drop in these stocks may be noise, high-flying space stocks often face larger corrections when market sentiment shifts.
See More
SpaceX Debut Triggers Volatility in Space Stocks
- Market Reaction Analysis: SpaceX surged approximately 19% on its debut, while space stocks like Rocket Lab, AST SpaceMobile, and Intuitive Machines saw significant declines of over 10%, 15%, and 13% respectively, highlighting a stark contrast between investor enthusiasm for new shares and indifference towards existing space stocks.
- Capital Rotation Phenomenon: Analysts suggest that investors may have sold existing space stocks to free up cash for SpaceX shares, indicating that while this capital movement impacted stock prices in the short term, it may not reflect fundamental changes in these companies.
- Rocket Lab's Performance: Despite its stock decline, Rocket Lab is set to join the Nasdaq-100 index, which is expected to attract more investment from index funds, and its first-quarter revenue rose approximately 63.5% year-over-year, demonstrating the robustness of its business.
- AST SpaceMobile Risks: AST SpaceMobile's stock fell over 15%, with first-quarter revenue at just $14.7 million while its market value is in the tens of billions, indicating a highly speculative business model and cash burn risk, despite holding over $3 billion to fund its satellite network construction.
See More
SpaceX IPO Triggers Plunge in Space Stocks
- Market Reaction: SpaceX's debut saw a 28% surge in stock price, achieving a valuation exceeding $2 trillion, yet the overall decline in space stocks indicates investors are locking in profits while maintaining confidence in the sector's potential.
- Price Volatility: Shares of Rocket Lab and Planet Labs fell approximately 8% each, Intuitive Machines dropped 11%, and Virgin Galactic plummeted 28%, reflecting concerns over the high valuations in the space industry.
- Investor Behavior: Analysts suggest that investors may be engaging in capital recycling to allocate funds for SpaceX, indicating that the market's enthusiasm for the space sector might face reality checks.
- Industry Outlook: Despite space stocks rising between 34% and 89% this year, analysts express concerns over their steep valuations, suggesting that such gains may not be sustainable, particularly following SpaceX's IPO.
See More
