Algoma Steel Group Provides Q2 Guidance
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Jun 30 2026
0mins
Algoma Steel Group provided guidance for its quarter ended June 30. Total steel shipments for the quarter are expected to be in the range of 175,000 tons to 180,000 tons and Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be in the range of C$5M-C$15M. Note that the guidance for Adjusted EBITDA includes the benefit of a final insurance settlement amount of C$45M related to the coke-making utility corridor incident in January 2024, as well as an expected capacity utilization adjustment benefit of approximately C$50M-C$55M. Rajat Marwah, CEO of Algoma, commented, "The Q2 demonstrated the continued resilience of our transformed business, with record plate sales and our first electric arc furnace, or EAF, unit continuing to ramp up as expected, even as broader market conditions continued to weigh on total shipment volumes. We look forward to bringing our second EAF unit online in the second half of the year and beginning its ramp up to our full expected capacity, completing our transformation. While tariffs remain a structural headwind, we continue to make strong progress on our pivot to a more Canada-centric strategy, and the recent rise in steel prices is encouraging. As Canada's only producer of discrete plate, we remain well-positioned to serve growing infrastructure, construction, and defence demand."
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Analyst Views on ASTL
Wall Street analysts forecast ASTL stock price to rise
3 Analyst Rating
1 Buy
2 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 3.760
Low
4.43
Averages
5.79
High
8.49
Current: 3.760
Low
4.43
Averages
5.79
High
8.49
About ASTL
Algoma Steel Group Inc. is a Canada-based integrated producer of hot and cold rolled steel products including sheet and plate. The Company delivers responsive, customer-driven product solutions for applications in the automotive, construction, energy, defense, and manufacturing sectors. It is a key supplier of steel products to customers in North America and is the producer of discrete plate products in Canada. The Company offers a wide range of steel plate products, which include AR225, Heat Treated Plate, AlgoLaser, AlgoGrip, and The Heavies. Its sheet products include Hot Rolled Sheet - DSPC, AR200, and Cold Rolled Sheet. The Company has a raw steel production capacity of an estimated over 2.8 million liquid tons per year. Its Direct Strip Production Complex is a continuous casting and rolling mill, producing high-quality hot-rolled sheet steel directly from liquid steel. The Company also generates by-products from its operations.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Algoma Steel Issues Q2 2026 Guidance with Strong Outlook
- Shipment Expectations: Algoma anticipates steel shipments for Q2 2026 to range between 175,000 tons and 180,000 tons, reflecting the company's resilience amid market fluctuations, despite total shipment volumes being impacted by broader market conditions.
- Adjusted EBITDA Forecast: The company expects Adjusted EBITDA to be between CAD 5 million and CAD 15 million, which includes a CAD 45 million insurance settlement benefit and an expected capacity utilization adjustment benefit of CAD 50 million to CAD 55 million, indicating a significant improvement in financial performance.
- EAF Transition: Algoma's first electric arc furnace (EAF) unit is ramping up as planned, with a second EAF unit expected to come online in the second half of 2026, further advancing the company's transition to more sustainable steel production, projected to reduce carbon emissions by approximately 70%.
- Market Positioning Advantage: As Canada's only producer of discrete plate, Algoma demonstrates strong competitive positioning in the face of growing demand in infrastructure, construction, and defense sectors, particularly as rising steel prices enhance the strategic significance of its transformation for long-term growth potential.
See More
Algoma Steel Releases 2025 Sustainability Report Highlighting EAF Transition
- EAF Commissioning: Algoma successfully commissioned its first Electric Arc Furnace (EAF) in July 2025, marking the start of Volta™ steel production, which is expected to significantly enhance the company's low-carbon steel production capabilities in North American and global markets.
- Emission Reduction Goals: With the decommissioning of Blast Furnace No. 7, Algoma's transition is projected to reduce carbon emissions intensity by approximately 70%, aligning with global decarbonization trends and strengthening its competitive position in the green steel market.
- Commitment to Transparency: The 2025 Sustainability Report, prepared in accordance with SASB and TCFD standards, underscores Algoma's ongoing commitment to transparency and accountability, aiming to provide investors and stakeholders with a clear pathway for long-term value creation.
- Future Outlook: Algoma plans to complete the construction of its second EAF unit in 2026, further advancing its commercial strategy and ensuring its leadership position in the steel industry while supporting Canada's industrial decarbonization efforts.
See More
Algoma Steel Q1 2026 Earnings Call Insights
- Transformation Milestone: On January 18, Algoma Steel permanently halted blast furnace operations, ending 125 years of coal-based steelmaking and transitioning to a fully electric arc furnace operation, marking a significant strategic shift expected to enhance long-term operational efficiency.
- Sales Performance: The company achieved record plate sales of 116,000 tonnes in Q1, despite incurring CAD 27.4 million in tariff costs, demonstrating resilience under market pressures while reflecting a strategic pivot towards the Canadian market.
- Financial Position: At quarter-end, total available liquidity was approximately $553 million with cash of $65.3 million; although adjusted EBITDA showed a loss of $28.7 million, management remains confident in reaching breakeven EBITDA by Q4, indicating optimism for future performance.
- Market Challenges: Coil pricing in Canada is suppressed due to domestic oversupply and import pressures, prompting Algoma to adopt a plate-focused strategy aimed at addressing market challenges through diversification initiatives to enhance competitiveness.
See More
Algoma Steel Group Reports Q1 Earnings
- Disappointing Earnings: Algoma Steel Group reported a Q1 GAAP EPS of -C$1.46, indicating significant challenges in profitability, reflecting weak market demand and increased cost pressures.
- Revenue Decline: The company’s revenue of C$296.9 million represents a 42.6% year-over-year decrease, suggesting that Algoma's sales have been severely impacted in a competitive market environment, potentially leading to tighter future cash flows.
- Market Attention: Despite the concerning financial performance, the market remains attentive to Algoma's partnership for ballistic steel production, which could provide potential opportunities for recovery in the future.
- Cautious Investor Sentiment: Analysts advise investors to remain cautious regarding Algoma, as early signs of recovery exist, but the overall market environment remains uncertain, which may affect the company's long-term growth prospects.
See More
Algoma Steel Completes Electric Arc Furnace Transition
- EAF Fully Operational: Algoma permanently closed its blast furnace on January 18, 2026, marking the end of 125 years of coal-based steelmaking and completing its transition to Electric Arc Furnace (EAF) production, with an operational loss of $153.5 million during the transition period highlighting the challenges faced in modernizing to low-carbon steel production.
- Significant Revenue Decline: The company reported first-quarter revenue of $296.9 million, a 42.5% decrease from $517.1 million in the prior year, primarily due to reduced shipments and increased tariff costs during the EAF transition, indicating the difficulties in adapting to the new market environment.
- Adjusted EBITDA Loss Narrowed: The first quarter saw an adjusted EBITDA loss of $28.7 million, an improvement from a loss of $46.7 million in the previous year, reflecting better product mix and lower administrative expenses, despite incurring a $90.2 million capacity utilization charge.
- Strategic Partnerships Expand Market Reach: Algoma's joint venture with Roshel Inc. aims to enhance its competitiveness in the defense market by focusing on ballistic steel production, while the MOU with Hanwha Ocean could open new opportunities in the shipbuilding supply chain, showcasing the company's strategic growth initiatives.
See More
Algoma Steel Group to Release Q1 2026 Financial Results
- Earnings Release Schedule: Algoma Steel Group plans to release its first quarter financial results for 2026 after market close on May 12, showcasing the company's ongoing performance and growth in the steel industry.
- Conference Call Details: A webcast and conference call will be held on May 13, 2026, at 11:00 a.m. Eastern Time to review financial results and address investor questions, enhancing transparency and investor relations.
- EAF Transition: Algoma is transitioning to electric arc furnace steelmaking, expected to reduce carbon emissions by approximately 70%, marking one of North America's largest industrial decarbonization initiatives and aligning with sustainability goals.
- Launch of Volta Brand: The newly introduced Volta brand represents steel produced through EAF technology, promising the same performance with significantly lower emissions, further solidifying Algoma's leadership in the green steel market.
See More
Algoma Steel Issues Q2 2026 Guidance with Strong Outlook
- Shipment Expectations: Algoma anticipates steel shipments for Q2 2026 to range between 175,000 tons and 180,000 tons, reflecting the company's resilience amid market fluctuations, despite total shipment volumes being impacted by broader market conditions.
- Adjusted EBITDA Forecast: The company expects Adjusted EBITDA to be between CAD 5 million and CAD 15 million, which includes a CAD 45 million insurance settlement benefit and an expected capacity utilization adjustment benefit of CAD 50 million to CAD 55 million, indicating a significant improvement in financial performance.
- EAF Transition: Algoma's first electric arc furnace (EAF) unit is ramping up as planned, with a second EAF unit expected to come online in the second half of 2026, further advancing the company's transition to more sustainable steel production, projected to reduce carbon emissions by approximately 70%.
- Market Positioning Advantage: As Canada's only producer of discrete plate, Algoma demonstrates strong competitive positioning in the face of growing demand in infrastructure, construction, and defense sectors, particularly as rising steel prices enhance the strategic significance of its transformation for long-term growth potential.
See More
Algoma Steel Releases 2025 Sustainability Report Highlighting EAF Transition
- EAF Commissioning: Algoma successfully commissioned its first Electric Arc Furnace (EAF) in July 2025, marking the start of Volta™ steel production, which is expected to significantly enhance the company's low-carbon steel production capabilities in North American and global markets.
- Emission Reduction Goals: With the decommissioning of Blast Furnace No. 7, Algoma's transition is projected to reduce carbon emissions intensity by approximately 70%, aligning with global decarbonization trends and strengthening its competitive position in the green steel market.
- Commitment to Transparency: The 2025 Sustainability Report, prepared in accordance with SASB and TCFD standards, underscores Algoma's ongoing commitment to transparency and accountability, aiming to provide investors and stakeholders with a clear pathway for long-term value creation.
- Future Outlook: Algoma plans to complete the construction of its second EAF unit in 2026, further advancing its commercial strategy and ensuring its leadership position in the steel industry while supporting Canada's industrial decarbonization efforts.
See More
Algoma Steel Q1 2026 Earnings Call Insights
- Transformation Milestone: On January 18, Algoma Steel permanently halted blast furnace operations, ending 125 years of coal-based steelmaking and transitioning to a fully electric arc furnace operation, marking a significant strategic shift expected to enhance long-term operational efficiency.
- Sales Performance: The company achieved record plate sales of 116,000 tonnes in Q1, despite incurring CAD 27.4 million in tariff costs, demonstrating resilience under market pressures while reflecting a strategic pivot towards the Canadian market.
- Financial Position: At quarter-end, total available liquidity was approximately $553 million with cash of $65.3 million; although adjusted EBITDA showed a loss of $28.7 million, management remains confident in reaching breakeven EBITDA by Q4, indicating optimism for future performance.
- Market Challenges: Coil pricing in Canada is suppressed due to domestic oversupply and import pressures, prompting Algoma to adopt a plate-focused strategy aimed at addressing market challenges through diversification initiatives to enhance competitiveness.
See More
Algoma Steel Group Reports Q1 Earnings
- Disappointing Earnings: Algoma Steel Group reported a Q1 GAAP EPS of -C$1.46, indicating significant challenges in profitability, reflecting weak market demand and increased cost pressures.
- Revenue Decline: The company’s revenue of C$296.9 million represents a 42.6% year-over-year decrease, suggesting that Algoma's sales have been severely impacted in a competitive market environment, potentially leading to tighter future cash flows.
- Market Attention: Despite the concerning financial performance, the market remains attentive to Algoma's partnership for ballistic steel production, which could provide potential opportunities for recovery in the future.
- Cautious Investor Sentiment: Analysts advise investors to remain cautious regarding Algoma, as early signs of recovery exist, but the overall market environment remains uncertain, which may affect the company's long-term growth prospects.
See More
Algoma Steel Completes Electric Arc Furnace Transition
- EAF Fully Operational: Algoma permanently closed its blast furnace on January 18, 2026, marking the end of 125 years of coal-based steelmaking and completing its transition to Electric Arc Furnace (EAF) production, with an operational loss of $153.5 million during the transition period highlighting the challenges faced in modernizing to low-carbon steel production.
- Significant Revenue Decline: The company reported first-quarter revenue of $296.9 million, a 42.5% decrease from $517.1 million in the prior year, primarily due to reduced shipments and increased tariff costs during the EAF transition, indicating the difficulties in adapting to the new market environment.
- Adjusted EBITDA Loss Narrowed: The first quarter saw an adjusted EBITDA loss of $28.7 million, an improvement from a loss of $46.7 million in the previous year, reflecting better product mix and lower administrative expenses, despite incurring a $90.2 million capacity utilization charge.
- Strategic Partnerships Expand Market Reach: Algoma's joint venture with Roshel Inc. aims to enhance its competitiveness in the defense market by focusing on ballistic steel production, while the MOU with Hanwha Ocean could open new opportunities in the shipbuilding supply chain, showcasing the company's strategic growth initiatives.
See More
Algoma Steel Group to Release Q1 2026 Financial Results
- Earnings Release Schedule: Algoma Steel Group plans to release its first quarter financial results for 2026 after market close on May 12, showcasing the company's ongoing performance and growth in the steel industry.
- Conference Call Details: A webcast and conference call will be held on May 13, 2026, at 11:00 a.m. Eastern Time to review financial results and address investor questions, enhancing transparency and investor relations.
- EAF Transition: Algoma is transitioning to electric arc furnace steelmaking, expected to reduce carbon emissions by approximately 70%, marking one of North America's largest industrial decarbonization initiatives and aligning with sustainability goals.
- Launch of Volta Brand: The newly introduced Volta brand represents steel produced through EAF technology, promising the same performance with significantly lower emissions, further solidifying Algoma's leadership in the green steel market.
See More
