Aflac Faces Performance Decline Risks
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: May 18 2026
0mins
Source: Yahoo Finance
- Declining Net Premiums: Aflac's net premiums earned have decreased by 6.2% annually over the past five years, significantly underperforming the broader insurance industry, indicating weaknesses in policy underwriting that could further harm future profitability.
- Unfavorable Revenue Projections: Wall Street analysts forecast a 2.7% drop in Aflac's revenue over the next 12 months, contrasting with the flat results of the past two years, suggesting that the company's products and services may face demand headwinds that could impact overall financial health.
- Book Value Per Share Decline: Consensus estimates predict Aflac's book value per share will shrink by 4.8% to $54.37 in the next 12 months, reflecting challenges in profit margin maintenance and investment portfolio management, which may undermine investor confidence.
- Lagging Market Performance: Although Aflac's stock trades at $115.26 with a forward P/B ratio of 2, its recent performance has lagged behind the S&P 500's 9.9% gain, prompting analysts to suggest that investors consider other more promising investment opportunities.
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Analyst Views on AFL
Wall Street analysts forecast AFL stock price to fall
11 Analyst Rating
3 Buy
5 Hold
3 Sell
Hold
Current: 112.630
Low
100.00
Averages
110.90
High
125.00
Current: 112.630
Low
100.00
Averages
110.90
High
125.00
About AFL
Aflac Incorporated provides financial protection to policyholders and customers through its subsidiaries in the United States and Japan. The Company's principal business is supplemental health and life insurance products. Its segments include Aflac Japan, which includes Aflac Life Insurance Japan Ltd. (ALIJ), and Aflac U.S., which includes American Family Life Assurance Company of Columbus (Aflac), American Family Life Assurance Company of New York (Aflac New York), Continental American Insurance Company (CAIC), Tier One Insurance Company (TOIC), and Aflac Benefits Solutions, Inc. (ABS). The Aflac Japan segment is the insurer in Japan in terms of cancer and medical (third sector insurance products) policies in force. The Company designs its United States insurance products to provide supplemental coverage for people who already have major medical or primary insurance coverage, as Aflac U.S. insurance policies pay benefits regardless of other insurance.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Aflac Issues ¥65.9B Yen Bonds Amid Strong Demand
- Bond Issuance Scale: Aflac successfully issued approximately ¥65.9 billion ($415 million) in yen-denominated bonds across four tranches on Thursday, indicating sustained investor demand for foreign credit.
- Interest Rate Level: The transaction featured a 10-year coupon of roughly 3.482%, reflecting the attractiveness of Japan's bond market, particularly amid changing global interest rate environments.
- Market Participation: Aflac's bond issuance follows Alphabet's $3.6 billion yen bond deal, highlighting a growing trend of foreign issuers tapping into Japan's bond market.
- Strategic Goals: Aflac aims to target sales in Japan closer to ¥80 billion while expanding its reinsurance franchise, intending to further solidify its position in the Japanese market.
See More
Aflac Faces Performance Decline Risks
- Declining Net Premiums: Aflac's net premiums earned have decreased by 6.2% annually over the past five years, significantly underperforming the broader insurance industry, indicating weaknesses in policy underwriting that could further harm future profitability.
- Unfavorable Revenue Projections: Wall Street analysts forecast a 2.7% drop in Aflac's revenue over the next 12 months, contrasting with the flat results of the past two years, suggesting that the company's products and services may face demand headwinds that could impact overall financial health.
- Book Value Per Share Decline: Consensus estimates predict Aflac's book value per share will shrink by 4.8% to $54.37 in the next 12 months, reflecting challenges in profit margin maintenance and investment portfolio management, which may undermine investor confidence.
- Lagging Market Performance: Although Aflac's stock trades at $115.26 with a forward P/B ratio of 2, its recent performance has lagged behind the S&P 500's 9.9% gain, prompting analysts to suggest that investors consider other more promising investment opportunities.
See More
Aflac Misses Q1 Revenue Expectations, Faces Challenges
- Revenue Shortfall: Aflac's Q1 revenue of $4.24 billion fell 1.8% year-over-year and missed analyst expectations of $4.32 billion, indicating challenges in maintaining revenue growth that could impact investor confidence moving forward.
- Profitability Decline: The adjusted EPS of $1.75 was 2.5% below the expected $1.80, reflecting pressures on cost control and sales growth, which may lead to short-term stock price pressure as investors reassess the company's performance.
- Sales Growth in Japan: Strong sales momentum in Japan, particularly from new medical and cancer insurance products, saw a 25.5% increase; however, persistency and lapse issues prevented a corresponding rise in earned premiums, highlighting a gap between market potential and actual performance.
- Reinsurance Strategy Expansion: Aflac executed its first third-party reinsurance deal in Japan, which, while having a minor short-term financial impact, is viewed by management as a strategic platform for future growth and diversification of earnings, indicating a forward-looking approach in their strategic planning.
See More
Aflac Reports Mixed Q1 Earnings Amid Yen Weakness
- Earnings Performance: Aflac's adjusted earnings per diluted share rose 5.4% year-over-year to $1.75, although this fell short of the Visible Alpha consensus of $1.80, indicating pressure on the company's profitability.
- Exchange Rate Impact: The average yen/dollar exchange rate was 156.87, 2.8% weaker than last year's 152.40, negatively impacting adjusted EPS by $0.02, reflecting the direct effect of currency fluctuations on financial results.
- Revenue Growth: The company reported revenue of $4.35 billion for the first quarter, a 27.9% increase year-over-year, surpassing market expectations of $4.32 billion, indicating strong performance in revenue generation.
- Premium Variations: Net earned premiums in Japan decreased by 6.4% to $1.6 billion, while net earned premiums in the U.S. increased by 3.5% to $1.6 billion, highlighting performance disparities across different markets and their impact on overall results.
See More
Aflac Launches Check for Cancer Champions Program
- Cancer Screening Advocacy: Aflac launches the Check for Cancer Champions program during Cancer Prevention and Early Detection Month to raise public awareness about the importance of cancer screening, emphasizing that preventive care and early detection can save lives.
- Initial Participants: The inaugural edition will feature six individuals who have shown unwavering commitment to raising awareness about cancer screening, reflecting Aflac's social responsibility in the health insurance sector.
- Impact Expansion: Through this initiative, Aflac not only enhances its brand image but also solidifies its market position as the leading supplemental health insurance provider in the U.S., promoting increased health awareness.
- Long-term Strategic Goals: This event aligns with Aflac's broader Check for Cancer initiative, aiming to promote early detection through education and outreach, thereby reducing cancer-related mortality rates in the future.
See More
AFLAC Q1 Earnings Announcement Scheduled
- Earnings Release Date: AFLAC is set to announce its Q1 earnings on April 29 after market close, with a consensus EPS estimate of $1.80, reflecting an 8.4% year-over-year growth, indicating sustained profitability that could positively impact stock prices.
- Revenue Expectations: The anticipated revenue for Q1 is $4.33 billion, representing a 27.4% year-over-year increase, which highlights the company's strong market performance and may bolster investor confidence, potentially driving stock prices higher.
- Historical Performance: Over the past two years, AFLAC has exceeded EPS and revenue estimates 63% of the time, demonstrating stability and reliability in financial forecasting, which could attract more institutional investor interest.
- Estimate Revision Dynamics: In the last three months, EPS estimates have seen five upward and five downward revisions, while revenue estimates experienced one upward revision with no downward adjustments, indicating a cautiously optimistic market outlook on AFLAC's profitability and revenue growth, which may influence future stock price movements.
See More
Aflac Issues ¥65.9B Yen Bonds Amid Strong Demand
- Bond Issuance Scale: Aflac successfully issued approximately ¥65.9 billion ($415 million) in yen-denominated bonds across four tranches on Thursday, indicating sustained investor demand for foreign credit.
- Interest Rate Level: The transaction featured a 10-year coupon of roughly 3.482%, reflecting the attractiveness of Japan's bond market, particularly amid changing global interest rate environments.
- Market Participation: Aflac's bond issuance follows Alphabet's $3.6 billion yen bond deal, highlighting a growing trend of foreign issuers tapping into Japan's bond market.
- Strategic Goals: Aflac aims to target sales in Japan closer to ¥80 billion while expanding its reinsurance franchise, intending to further solidify its position in the Japanese market.
See More
Aflac Faces Performance Decline Risks
- Declining Net Premiums: Aflac's net premiums earned have decreased by 6.2% annually over the past five years, significantly underperforming the broader insurance industry, indicating weaknesses in policy underwriting that could further harm future profitability.
- Unfavorable Revenue Projections: Wall Street analysts forecast a 2.7% drop in Aflac's revenue over the next 12 months, contrasting with the flat results of the past two years, suggesting that the company's products and services may face demand headwinds that could impact overall financial health.
- Book Value Per Share Decline: Consensus estimates predict Aflac's book value per share will shrink by 4.8% to $54.37 in the next 12 months, reflecting challenges in profit margin maintenance and investment portfolio management, which may undermine investor confidence.
- Lagging Market Performance: Although Aflac's stock trades at $115.26 with a forward P/B ratio of 2, its recent performance has lagged behind the S&P 500's 9.9% gain, prompting analysts to suggest that investors consider other more promising investment opportunities.
See More
Aflac Misses Q1 Revenue Expectations, Faces Challenges
- Revenue Shortfall: Aflac's Q1 revenue of $4.24 billion fell 1.8% year-over-year and missed analyst expectations of $4.32 billion, indicating challenges in maintaining revenue growth that could impact investor confidence moving forward.
- Profitability Decline: The adjusted EPS of $1.75 was 2.5% below the expected $1.80, reflecting pressures on cost control and sales growth, which may lead to short-term stock price pressure as investors reassess the company's performance.
- Sales Growth in Japan: Strong sales momentum in Japan, particularly from new medical and cancer insurance products, saw a 25.5% increase; however, persistency and lapse issues prevented a corresponding rise in earned premiums, highlighting a gap between market potential and actual performance.
- Reinsurance Strategy Expansion: Aflac executed its first third-party reinsurance deal in Japan, which, while having a minor short-term financial impact, is viewed by management as a strategic platform for future growth and diversification of earnings, indicating a forward-looking approach in their strategic planning.
See More
Aflac Reports Mixed Q1 Earnings Amid Yen Weakness
- Earnings Performance: Aflac's adjusted earnings per diluted share rose 5.4% year-over-year to $1.75, although this fell short of the Visible Alpha consensus of $1.80, indicating pressure on the company's profitability.
- Exchange Rate Impact: The average yen/dollar exchange rate was 156.87, 2.8% weaker than last year's 152.40, negatively impacting adjusted EPS by $0.02, reflecting the direct effect of currency fluctuations on financial results.
- Revenue Growth: The company reported revenue of $4.35 billion for the first quarter, a 27.9% increase year-over-year, surpassing market expectations of $4.32 billion, indicating strong performance in revenue generation.
- Premium Variations: Net earned premiums in Japan decreased by 6.4% to $1.6 billion, while net earned premiums in the U.S. increased by 3.5% to $1.6 billion, highlighting performance disparities across different markets and their impact on overall results.
See More
Aflac Launches Check for Cancer Champions Program
- Cancer Screening Advocacy: Aflac launches the Check for Cancer Champions program during Cancer Prevention and Early Detection Month to raise public awareness about the importance of cancer screening, emphasizing that preventive care and early detection can save lives.
- Initial Participants: The inaugural edition will feature six individuals who have shown unwavering commitment to raising awareness about cancer screening, reflecting Aflac's social responsibility in the health insurance sector.
- Impact Expansion: Through this initiative, Aflac not only enhances its brand image but also solidifies its market position as the leading supplemental health insurance provider in the U.S., promoting increased health awareness.
- Long-term Strategic Goals: This event aligns with Aflac's broader Check for Cancer initiative, aiming to promote early detection through education and outreach, thereby reducing cancer-related mortality rates in the future.
See More
AFLAC Q1 Earnings Announcement Scheduled
- Earnings Release Date: AFLAC is set to announce its Q1 earnings on April 29 after market close, with a consensus EPS estimate of $1.80, reflecting an 8.4% year-over-year growth, indicating sustained profitability that could positively impact stock prices.
- Revenue Expectations: The anticipated revenue for Q1 is $4.33 billion, representing a 27.4% year-over-year increase, which highlights the company's strong market performance and may bolster investor confidence, potentially driving stock prices higher.
- Historical Performance: Over the past two years, AFLAC has exceeded EPS and revenue estimates 63% of the time, demonstrating stability and reliability in financial forecasting, which could attract more institutional investor interest.
- Estimate Revision Dynamics: In the last three months, EPS estimates have seen five upward and five downward revisions, while revenue estimates experienced one upward revision with no downward adjustments, indicating a cautiously optimistic market outlook on AFLAC's profitability and revenue growth, which may influence future stock price movements.
See More
