Add Up The Pieces: ONEY Could Be Worth $124
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Mar 24 2025
0mins
Should l Buy HOG?
Source: NASDAQ.COM
ETF Analysis: The SPDR Russell 1000 Yield Focus ETF (ONEY) has an implied analyst target price of $123.88, indicating a potential upside of 14.32% from its current trading price of $108.36.
Stock Performance Insights: Notable underlying holdings such as Webster Financial Corp, Harley-Davidson Inc, and XP Inc show significant upside potential based on analysts' target prices, raising questions about the validity and optimism of these projections.
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Analyst Views on HOG
Wall Street analysts forecast HOG stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for HOG is 32.67 USD with a low forecast of 32.00 USD and a high forecast of 34.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
4 Analyst Rating
3 Buy
1 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 20.580
Low
32.00
Averages
32.67
High
34.00
Current: 20.580
Low
32.00
Averages
32.67
High
34.00
About HOG
Harley-Davidson, Inc. is the parent company of Harley-Davidson Motor Company and Harley-Davidson Financial Services. The Company operates through three segments: Harley-Davidson Motor Company (HDMC), LiveWire, and Harley-Davidson Financial Services (HDFS). The HDMC segment designs, manufactures and sells Harley-Davidson motorcycles. The HDMC segment also sells motorcycle parts, accessories, and apparel as well as licenses its trademarks. The HDMC segment conducts business on a global basis, with sales in the United States, Canada, Europe/Middle East/Africa, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. The LiveWire segment sells electric motorcycles, electric balance bikes for kids, parts and accessories and apparel in the United States and certain international markets. The HDFS segment is engaged in the business of financing and servicing wholesale inventory receivables and retail consumer loans, primarily for the purchase of Harley-Davidson and LiveWire motorcycles.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Harley-Davidson Q4 2025 Earnings Call Insights
- Sales and Revenue Decline: Harley-Davidson reported a 28% year-over-year decline in consolidated revenue for Q4, totaling $4.5 billion, primarily driven by a 10% drop in HDMC revenue and a staggering 59% decrease in HDFS revenue, indicating significant market pressures.
- Inventory Management Challenges: While North American retail sales grew by 5%, dealer inventory fell by 17% year-over-year, failing to fully alleviate high inventory issues, leading management to express caution regarding future profitability and cost control.
- Cost-Saving Initiatives: Management anticipates achieving at least $150 million in annual savings starting in 2027, aimed at improving financial health through operational optimization and cost reduction, although short-term profit pressures remain a concern.
- 2026 Outlook: Management views 2026 as a transition year, forecasting operating income between $10 million and a loss of $40 million, while facing new tariff costs estimated between $75 million and $105 million, reflecting ongoing uncertainties ahead.
See More
Harley-Davidson Earnings Snapshot Highlights
- Global Sales Performance: Harley-Davidson's global motorcycle retail sales fell 1% year-over-year, with North America up 5% driven by touring models, while Latin America grew 10% supported by Brazil and Mexico; however, EMEA sales dropped 24% and APAC fell 1%, with China remaining soft.
- Revenue and Shipment Trends: Global motorcycle shipments decreased 4% year-over-year, with revenue down 10% due to lower volumes, net pricing, and higher incentive spending, as motorcycle revenue fell 16%, parts and accessories dropped 1%, apparel declined 13%, while licensing revenue surged 61%.
- Financial Losses: The segment reported a gross loss of $30 million compared to a $3 million loss a year ago, primarily due to rising tariffs and ongoing pricing and incentive pressures, indicating challenges in cost management for the company.
- Share Buyback Plan: Harley-Davidson announced a $200 million accelerated share repurchase agreement with Goldman Sachs, with final settlement expected in Q2 2026, reflecting the company's proactive approach to shareholder returns despite facing operational losses.
See More
HARLEY CEO: MANAGEMENT TEAM IS FOCUSING THE COMPANY ON A DEFINITE PRIORITY
- Leadership Focus: The CEO of Harley is emphasizing the importance of reorienting the leadership team to align with the company's core priorities.
- Strategic Direction: The leadership team is tasked with clarifying and prioritizing the company's goals to enhance overall performance and direction.
See More
Harley-Davidson Reports Declining Sales and Revenue Challenges
- Retail Sales Decline: Harley-Davidson's retail segment experienced a 10% revenue drop, leading to a 28% overall revenue decline to $496 million, although better than Wall Street's $480 million forecast, indicating persistent sales weakness that impacts profitability.
- Financial Arm Losses: The financing segment saw a staggering 59% revenue drop, resulting in a loss of $2.44 per share, significantly worse than the anticipated $1.38 loss, highlighting severe challenges across multiple business areas.
- Regional Sales Disparities: While motorcycle sales increased by 5% in North America and 10% in Latin America, the 24% decline in EMEA and 1% drop in Asia Pacific severely impacted overall performance, reflecting uneven market demand.
- Electric Vehicle Brand Improvement: Harley-Davidson's electric vehicle brand LiveWire saw a 61% increase in shipments and a 9% rise in revenue, reducing its operating loss by $8 million compared to last year, showcasing the potential in the electric vehicle market.
See More
Harley-Davidson Reports 2025 Financial Results and 2026 Outlook
- Declining Financial Performance: In Q4 2025, Harley-Davidson reported revenue of $496 million, a 28% decrease year-over-year, with full-year revenue at $4.473 billion, down 14%, reflecting challenges in restoring dealer confidence and aligning wholesale activities with retail demand.
- Increased Operating Loss: The operating loss for Q4 reached $361 million, an 87% increase from the $193 million loss in the prior year, indicating significant pressure on the company regarding cost control and weak market demand.
- Decreased Motorcycle Shipments: Global motorcycle shipments fell 16% year-over-year in 2025, with Q4 shipments at 135,000 units, down 4% from the previous year, suggesting ongoing weak market demand impacting the company's sales strategy.
- Sharp Decline in Financial Services Revenue: Harley-Davidson Financial Services saw a 59% drop in Q4 revenue to $106 million, primarily due to reduced retail and wholesale finance receivables, highlighting challenges faced in the financial services sector.
See More
Harley-Davidson Shares Drop Following Disappointing Guidance.
- Harley-Davidson's Stock Performance: Shares of Harley-Davidson declined early Tuesday following disappointing fourth-quarter results.
- Financial Guidance Concerns: The company's financial guidance for 2026 did not meet market expectations, contributing to the drop in stock value.
See More
Harley-Davidson Q4 2025 Earnings Call Insights
- Sales and Revenue Decline: Harley-Davidson reported a 28% year-over-year decline in consolidated revenue for Q4, totaling $4.5 billion, primarily driven by a 10% drop in HDMC revenue and a staggering 59% decrease in HDFS revenue, indicating significant market pressures.
- Inventory Management Challenges: While North American retail sales grew by 5%, dealer inventory fell by 17% year-over-year, failing to fully alleviate high inventory issues, leading management to express caution regarding future profitability and cost control.
- Cost-Saving Initiatives: Management anticipates achieving at least $150 million in annual savings starting in 2027, aimed at improving financial health through operational optimization and cost reduction, although short-term profit pressures remain a concern.
- 2026 Outlook: Management views 2026 as a transition year, forecasting operating income between $10 million and a loss of $40 million, while facing new tariff costs estimated between $75 million and $105 million, reflecting ongoing uncertainties ahead.
See More
Harley-Davidson Earnings Snapshot Highlights
- Global Sales Performance: Harley-Davidson's global motorcycle retail sales fell 1% year-over-year, with North America up 5% driven by touring models, while Latin America grew 10% supported by Brazil and Mexico; however, EMEA sales dropped 24% and APAC fell 1%, with China remaining soft.
- Revenue and Shipment Trends: Global motorcycle shipments decreased 4% year-over-year, with revenue down 10% due to lower volumes, net pricing, and higher incentive spending, as motorcycle revenue fell 16%, parts and accessories dropped 1%, apparel declined 13%, while licensing revenue surged 61%.
- Financial Losses: The segment reported a gross loss of $30 million compared to a $3 million loss a year ago, primarily due to rising tariffs and ongoing pricing and incentive pressures, indicating challenges in cost management for the company.
- Share Buyback Plan: Harley-Davidson announced a $200 million accelerated share repurchase agreement with Goldman Sachs, with final settlement expected in Q2 2026, reflecting the company's proactive approach to shareholder returns despite facing operational losses.
See More
HARLEY CEO: MANAGEMENT TEAM IS FOCUSING THE COMPANY ON A DEFINITE PRIORITY
- Leadership Focus: The CEO of Harley is emphasizing the importance of reorienting the leadership team to align with the company's core priorities.
- Strategic Direction: The leadership team is tasked with clarifying and prioritizing the company's goals to enhance overall performance and direction.
See More
Harley-Davidson Reports Declining Sales and Revenue Challenges
- Retail Sales Decline: Harley-Davidson's retail segment experienced a 10% revenue drop, leading to a 28% overall revenue decline to $496 million, although better than Wall Street's $480 million forecast, indicating persistent sales weakness that impacts profitability.
- Financial Arm Losses: The financing segment saw a staggering 59% revenue drop, resulting in a loss of $2.44 per share, significantly worse than the anticipated $1.38 loss, highlighting severe challenges across multiple business areas.
- Regional Sales Disparities: While motorcycle sales increased by 5% in North America and 10% in Latin America, the 24% decline in EMEA and 1% drop in Asia Pacific severely impacted overall performance, reflecting uneven market demand.
- Electric Vehicle Brand Improvement: Harley-Davidson's electric vehicle brand LiveWire saw a 61% increase in shipments and a 9% rise in revenue, reducing its operating loss by $8 million compared to last year, showcasing the potential in the electric vehicle market.
See More
Harley-Davidson Reports 2025 Financial Results and 2026 Outlook
- Declining Financial Performance: In Q4 2025, Harley-Davidson reported revenue of $496 million, a 28% decrease year-over-year, with full-year revenue at $4.473 billion, down 14%, reflecting challenges in restoring dealer confidence and aligning wholesale activities with retail demand.
- Increased Operating Loss: The operating loss for Q4 reached $361 million, an 87% increase from the $193 million loss in the prior year, indicating significant pressure on the company regarding cost control and weak market demand.
- Decreased Motorcycle Shipments: Global motorcycle shipments fell 16% year-over-year in 2025, with Q4 shipments at 135,000 units, down 4% from the previous year, suggesting ongoing weak market demand impacting the company's sales strategy.
- Sharp Decline in Financial Services Revenue: Harley-Davidson Financial Services saw a 59% drop in Q4 revenue to $106 million, primarily due to reduced retail and wholesale finance receivables, highlighting challenges faced in the financial services sector.
See More
Harley-Davidson Shares Drop Following Disappointing Guidance.
- Harley-Davidson's Stock Performance: Shares of Harley-Davidson declined early Tuesday following disappointing fourth-quarter results.
- Financial Guidance Concerns: The company's financial guidance for 2026 did not meet market expectations, contributing to the drop in stock value.
See More
