Oshkosh Faces Order Decline Amid Competitive Pressures
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: May 19 2026
0mins
Source: Fool
Oshkosh Corp's stock rose by 5.03% as it crossed above the 5-day SMA, reflecting positive market conditions. However, the company has seen an average backlog drop of 4.7% over the past two years, indicating a loss of orders amid increasing competition, which has led to a 6.8% annual contraction in earnings per share. This situation puts pressure on stock prices despite the recent uptick.
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Analyst Views on OSK
Wall Street analysts forecast OSK stock price to rise
10 Analyst Rating
7 Buy
3 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 129.650
Low
132.00
Averages
152.40
High
180.00
Current: 129.650
Low
132.00
Averages
152.40
High
180.00
About OSK
Oshkosh Corporation is an industrial technology company focused on the design, development and manufacturing of purpose-built vehicles and equipment. It operates through three segments: Access, Vocational and Transport. The Access segment designs and manufactures access and material handling equipment for use in a range of construction, industrial, agricultural, vegetation management, and maintenance applications to position workers and materials at height under brands such as JLG and SkyTrak. The segment's customer base includes equipment rental companies, construction contractors, manufacturing companies and home improvement centers. The Vocational segment includes the Pierce, Maxi-Metal, Oshkosh AeroTech, Oshkosh Airport Products, McNeilus, IMT, Oshkosh S-Series and others. The transport segment designs, manufactures and sustains best-in-class specialty vehicles and mobility systems for the United States Department of Defense (DoD) and approved foreign customers.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Wall Street Bullish on Several Stocks Despite Concerns
- Arhaus Sales Weakness: Arhaus (NASDAQ:ARHS) has experienced disappointing same-store sales over the past two years, resulting in a revenue base of only $1.38 billion, which has hindered its ability to achieve economies of scale enjoyed by industry giants, while its earnings per share have declined by 25.6% annually, indicating that its product selection and store experience are failing to attract customers.
- Oshkosh Order Decline: Oshkosh (NYSE:OSK) has seen an average backlog drop of 4.7% over the past two years, suggesting a loss of orders amid increasing competition, and its gross margin of 16.3% reflects high production costs, leading to a 6.8% annual contraction in earnings per share, which puts pressure on stock prices.
- Fastly Customer Spending Challenges: Fastly (NASDAQ:FSLY) has a net revenue retention rate of 107%, trailing the industry benchmark of 110%, indicating difficulties in increasing customer spending, while its gross margin of 59.4% highlights high servicing costs, and its history of operating margin losses further underscores its suboptimal cost structure.
- Market Opportunity Analysis: Despite Wall Street's bullish outlook on these stocks, analysts point out significant fundamental issues with Arhaus, Oshkosh, and Fastly, suggesting that investors should exercise caution regarding their investment value and explore other potentially more rewarding opportunities.
See More
U.S. Begins Tariff Refunds, Benefiting Companies
- Tariff Refunds Initiated: Following the Supreme Court's ruling that some tariffs were unconstitutional, Oshkosh Corporation CFO Matt Field confirmed that the company began receiving tariff refunds on Tuesday, marking the initial payments from their total claims submitted, although the total refund amount remains unverified.
- Basic Fun's Gains: Basic Fun CEO Jay Foreman stated that the refunds received so far represent only 5% of the company's total claim on early invoices, yet these funds will be utilized to support 2026 cash flow and increase employee salaries to offset rising living costs.
- Logistics Companies' Role: Logistics giants UPS, FedEx, and DHL have indicated they will file for tariff refunds on behalf of their customers, requiring no further action from them, highlighting the crucial role of the logistics sector in this refund process.
- Massive Refund Scale: The U.S. Customs and Border Protection anticipates paying out $35.46 billion in refunds across 8.3 million shipments, indicating the potential positive impact of this policy on corporate cash flows.
See More
First Wave of Tariff Refunds Begins After Supreme Court Ruling
- Refunds Initiated: Following the Supreme Court's ruling that some of Trump's tariffs were unconstitutional, Oshkosh Corporation confirmed on Tuesday that it has begun receiving tariff refunds, although the total refund amount remains unverified, providing initial financial relief amid uncertainty for businesses.
- Basic Fun's Situation: Basic Fun reported that the refunds received so far represent only 5% of its total claims, allowing the company to utilize these funds to support its 2026 cash flow while planning to increase employee salaries to offset rising living costs during a challenging period for the toy industry.
- Logistics Companies Involvement: Logistics giants UPS, FedEx, and DHL have stated they will file for tariff refunds on behalf of their customers, streamlining the refund process, although the first phase only covers requests finalized by CBP in the past 80 days, with the process potentially taking months to reach customers.
- Expected Total Refund Amount: The U.S. Customs and Border Protection anticipates paying out $35.46 billion in refunds across 8.3 million shipments, a substantial amount that could significantly impact the cash flow of affected businesses, particularly in the context of economic recovery.
See More
Oshkosh Reports Lower-Than-Expected Q1 Results
- Performance Results: Oshkosh reported Q1 results that fell short of market expectations, with specific financial metrics undisclosed, potentially leading to decreased investor confidence in the company's future growth and impacting stock performance.
- Earnings Guidance Reaffirmed: Despite the disappointing Q1 results, Oshkosh reaffirmed its FY2026 EPS guidance, indicating the company's confidence in long-term growth, which may attract shareholders looking for stable investments.
- Analyst Rating Changes: The company received mixed price target adjustments from analysts, with some lowering their targets, reflecting market uncertainty regarding the company's future performance and influencing investor decisions.
- Market Reaction: Given the underwhelming results and mixed analyst feedback, Oshkosh's stock price may face pressure, prompting investors to monitor subsequent market dynamics and potential strategic adjustments by the company.
See More
Oshkosh Corporation Reports Mixed Q1 Earnings, Stock Plummets
- Sales Beat Expectations: Oshkosh reported Q1 sales exceeding $2.3 billion, although year-over-year growth was only 0.2%, indicating stable market demand; however, the sluggish growth may undermine future investor confidence.
- Earnings Plummet: The company's earnings per share fell to $0.68, a 60% decline year-over-year, significantly below the analyst forecast of $1.04, reflecting a sharp deterioration in profitability that could raise shareholder concerns about management.
- Negative Cash Flow Issues: Oshkosh experienced negative free cash flow of $189.1 million in Q1, an improvement from $435.2 million in Q1 2025, yet still indicating challenges in cash management that may affect future capital expenditures and investment plans.
- Optimistic Future Outlook: Despite the disappointing current performance, Oshkosh's management reiterated a 2026 EPS guidance of $10.90, resulting in a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.7 at the current stock price, and with a 1.5% dividend yield and a 12% long-term growth forecast, the stock may still attract investor interest.
See More
Oshkosh Beats Sales Expectations but Earnings Plummet
- Strong Sales Performance: Oshkosh reported first-quarter sales exceeding $2.3 billion with a year-over-year growth of only 0.2%, indicating that while sales surpassed analyst expectations, the sluggish growth reflects increasing market competition pressures.
- Earnings Plummet: The reported earnings per share of $0.85 fell short of expectations, with actual GAAP earnings at only $0.68, representing a 60% year-over-year decline, highlighting significant challenges to the company's profitability.
- Poor Cash Flow Situation: Oshkosh experienced negative free cash flow of $189.1 million in Q1, although this was an improvement from $435.2 million in Q1 2025, it still indicates ongoing difficulties in cash management for the company.
- Full-Year Guidance Maintained: Despite disappointing first-quarter results, Oshkosh reiterated its guidance for 2026 earnings at $10.90 per share, reflecting management's confidence in future demand, although the market remains cautious about the company's ability to meet these targets.
See More
Wall Street Bullish on Several Stocks Despite Concerns
- Arhaus Sales Weakness: Arhaus (NASDAQ:ARHS) has experienced disappointing same-store sales over the past two years, resulting in a revenue base of only $1.38 billion, which has hindered its ability to achieve economies of scale enjoyed by industry giants, while its earnings per share have declined by 25.6% annually, indicating that its product selection and store experience are failing to attract customers.
- Oshkosh Order Decline: Oshkosh (NYSE:OSK) has seen an average backlog drop of 4.7% over the past two years, suggesting a loss of orders amid increasing competition, and its gross margin of 16.3% reflects high production costs, leading to a 6.8% annual contraction in earnings per share, which puts pressure on stock prices.
- Fastly Customer Spending Challenges: Fastly (NASDAQ:FSLY) has a net revenue retention rate of 107%, trailing the industry benchmark of 110%, indicating difficulties in increasing customer spending, while its gross margin of 59.4% highlights high servicing costs, and its history of operating margin losses further underscores its suboptimal cost structure.
- Market Opportunity Analysis: Despite Wall Street's bullish outlook on these stocks, analysts point out significant fundamental issues with Arhaus, Oshkosh, and Fastly, suggesting that investors should exercise caution regarding their investment value and explore other potentially more rewarding opportunities.
See More
U.S. Begins Tariff Refunds, Benefiting Companies
- Tariff Refunds Initiated: Following the Supreme Court's ruling that some tariffs were unconstitutional, Oshkosh Corporation CFO Matt Field confirmed that the company began receiving tariff refunds on Tuesday, marking the initial payments from their total claims submitted, although the total refund amount remains unverified.
- Basic Fun's Gains: Basic Fun CEO Jay Foreman stated that the refunds received so far represent only 5% of the company's total claim on early invoices, yet these funds will be utilized to support 2026 cash flow and increase employee salaries to offset rising living costs.
- Logistics Companies' Role: Logistics giants UPS, FedEx, and DHL have indicated they will file for tariff refunds on behalf of their customers, requiring no further action from them, highlighting the crucial role of the logistics sector in this refund process.
- Massive Refund Scale: The U.S. Customs and Border Protection anticipates paying out $35.46 billion in refunds across 8.3 million shipments, indicating the potential positive impact of this policy on corporate cash flows.
See More
First Wave of Tariff Refunds Begins After Supreme Court Ruling
- Refunds Initiated: Following the Supreme Court's ruling that some of Trump's tariffs were unconstitutional, Oshkosh Corporation confirmed on Tuesday that it has begun receiving tariff refunds, although the total refund amount remains unverified, providing initial financial relief amid uncertainty for businesses.
- Basic Fun's Situation: Basic Fun reported that the refunds received so far represent only 5% of its total claims, allowing the company to utilize these funds to support its 2026 cash flow while planning to increase employee salaries to offset rising living costs during a challenging period for the toy industry.
- Logistics Companies Involvement: Logistics giants UPS, FedEx, and DHL have stated they will file for tariff refunds on behalf of their customers, streamlining the refund process, although the first phase only covers requests finalized by CBP in the past 80 days, with the process potentially taking months to reach customers.
- Expected Total Refund Amount: The U.S. Customs and Border Protection anticipates paying out $35.46 billion in refunds across 8.3 million shipments, a substantial amount that could significantly impact the cash flow of affected businesses, particularly in the context of economic recovery.
See More
Oshkosh Reports Lower-Than-Expected Q1 Results
- Performance Results: Oshkosh reported Q1 results that fell short of market expectations, with specific financial metrics undisclosed, potentially leading to decreased investor confidence in the company's future growth and impacting stock performance.
- Earnings Guidance Reaffirmed: Despite the disappointing Q1 results, Oshkosh reaffirmed its FY2026 EPS guidance, indicating the company's confidence in long-term growth, which may attract shareholders looking for stable investments.
- Analyst Rating Changes: The company received mixed price target adjustments from analysts, with some lowering their targets, reflecting market uncertainty regarding the company's future performance and influencing investor decisions.
- Market Reaction: Given the underwhelming results and mixed analyst feedback, Oshkosh's stock price may face pressure, prompting investors to monitor subsequent market dynamics and potential strategic adjustments by the company.
See More
Oshkosh Corporation Reports Mixed Q1 Earnings, Stock Plummets
- Sales Beat Expectations: Oshkosh reported Q1 sales exceeding $2.3 billion, although year-over-year growth was only 0.2%, indicating stable market demand; however, the sluggish growth may undermine future investor confidence.
- Earnings Plummet: The company's earnings per share fell to $0.68, a 60% decline year-over-year, significantly below the analyst forecast of $1.04, reflecting a sharp deterioration in profitability that could raise shareholder concerns about management.
- Negative Cash Flow Issues: Oshkosh experienced negative free cash flow of $189.1 million in Q1, an improvement from $435.2 million in Q1 2025, yet still indicating challenges in cash management that may affect future capital expenditures and investment plans.
- Optimistic Future Outlook: Despite the disappointing current performance, Oshkosh's management reiterated a 2026 EPS guidance of $10.90, resulting in a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.7 at the current stock price, and with a 1.5% dividend yield and a 12% long-term growth forecast, the stock may still attract investor interest.
See More
Oshkosh Beats Sales Expectations but Earnings Plummet
- Strong Sales Performance: Oshkosh reported first-quarter sales exceeding $2.3 billion with a year-over-year growth of only 0.2%, indicating that while sales surpassed analyst expectations, the sluggish growth reflects increasing market competition pressures.
- Earnings Plummet: The reported earnings per share of $0.85 fell short of expectations, with actual GAAP earnings at only $0.68, representing a 60% year-over-year decline, highlighting significant challenges to the company's profitability.
- Poor Cash Flow Situation: Oshkosh experienced negative free cash flow of $189.1 million in Q1, although this was an improvement from $435.2 million in Q1 2025, it still indicates ongoing difficulties in cash management for the company.
- Full-Year Guidance Maintained: Despite disappointing first-quarter results, Oshkosh reiterated its guidance for 2026 earnings at $10.90 per share, reflecting management's confidence in future demand, although the market remains cautious about the company's ability to meet these targets.
See More
