Moderna's Flu Vaccine Shows Strong Efficacy in FDA Review
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: May 21 2026
0mins
Source: seekingalpha
Moderna Inc's stock rose by 6.14% as it reached a 20-day high amid a challenging market environment where the Nasdaq-100 is down 1.34% and the S&P 500 is down 0.26%.
The FDA has reviewed data indicating that Moderna's flu vaccine, mFlusiva, demonstrates a strong immune response in older adults, particularly those aged 65 and older. This positive assessment may enhance the vaccine's market acceptance, especially as Jefferies analyst Andrew Tsai forecasts U.S. sales for Moderna's flu and COVID-flu combo vaccine could reach $750 million by 2030. However, the FDA's upcoming meeting on June 18 will assess the risk-benefit profile of mFlusiva, following a previous rejection due to clinical trial design issues, making future approvals uncertain.
This news reflects a significant potential for Moderna's growth in the vaccine market, especially as it navigates the complexities of regulatory approvals. The strong immune response data could lead to increased investor confidence and market interest in Moderna's future products.
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Analyst Views on MRNA
Wall Street analysts forecast MRNA stock price to fall
20 Analyst Rating
1 Buy
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Hold
Current: 61.800
Low
17.00
Averages
32.47
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Current: 61.800
Low
17.00
Averages
32.47
High
63.00
About MRNA
Moderna, Inc. is a biotechnology company advancing a new class of medicines made of messenger ribonucleic acid (mRNA). It is engaged in developing medicines across infectious disease vaccines, oncology therapeutics and rare disease therapeutics. Its platform incorporates advances across three components, mRNA, delivery, and the manufacturing process, to advance its medicines. Its products are Spikevax and mNEXSPIKE (its COVID vaccines), and mRESVIA (its vaccine against respiratory syncytial virus (RSV)). It also has a diverse development pipeline that consists of 35 therapeutic and vaccine programs, six of which are in late-stage development. It has regulatory filings under review for its seasonal flu+COVID vaccine (mRNA-1083) in Europe and Canada and for its seasonal flu vaccine (mRNA-1010) in the United States, Europe, Canada and Australia. Its rare disease programs are Propionic acidemia (mRNA-3927); Methylmalonic acidemia (mRNA-3705), and Cystic Fibrosis (mRNA-3692/VX-522).
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Moderna Reports 260% Revenue Growth in Q1, Expands mRNA Applications
- Significant Revenue Growth: Moderna reported $389 million in revenue for Q1, marking a 260% year-over-year increase, demonstrating the company's successful diversification despite challenges from declining COVID-19 vaccine sales.
- Vaccine Development Progress: The mFlusiva seasonal influenza vaccine performed well in phase 3 trials, with the FDA's decision expected on August 5; if approved, it could provide a significant boost to the company's market share for the 2026-2027 flu season.
- Cancer Vaccine Development: The personalized cancer vaccine intismeran (mRNA-4157), developed in partnership with Merck, showed sustained efficacy in high-risk melanoma patients, with pivotal phase 3 data readouts expected later this year, potentially redefining the company's valuation.
- Financial Status and Risks: Despite reporting a Q1 EPS loss of $3.40, Moderna maintains $7.5 billion in cash and low debt levels, providing a solid financial runway for upcoming product launches, with a goal of achieving overall breakeven by 2028.
See More
Moderna's Diversification Strategy Boosts Stock Recovery
- Vaccine Development Progress: Moderna is aggressively developing its mFlusiva seasonal influenza vaccine, which performed well in phase 3 trials, with the FDA's decision expected on August 5; if approved, it could provide a new revenue stream for the 2026-2027 flu season.
- Cancer Vaccine Innovation: The personalized cancer vaccine intismeran (mRNA-4157), developed in partnership with Merck, shows promising sustained efficacy in high-risk melanoma patients, with pivotal phase 3 data expected later this year, potentially opening new market opportunities for Moderna.
- Commercial Expansion Plans: Moderna aims to launch up to three new products between 2027 and 2028, including a novel norovirus vaccine and treatments for rare diseases, recently appointing a new chief commercial officer to drive successful global launches, reflecting confidence in future growth.
- Financial Status Analysis: Despite reporting $389 million in revenue for Q1, a 260% year-over-year increase, the company faced a $3.40 EPS loss due to a one-time litigation charge; however, with $7.5 billion in cash, Moderna has a comfortable runway to achieve its goal of breakeven by 2028.
See More
Moderna's Progress in Vaccine Diversification
- Vaccine Diversification Strategy: Moderna is aggressively expanding its vaccine portfolio, particularly with the mFlusiva vaccine for influenza, which performed well in phase 3 trials, with the FDA expected to make a decision by August 5; if approved, it could provide a new option for the 2026-2027 flu season, significantly enhancing the company's competitive position in the vaccine market.
- Personalized Cancer Vaccine Development: The individualized cancer vaccine intismeran (mRNA-4157), developed in partnership with Merck, has shown promising efficacy in high-risk melanoma patients, with pivotal phase 3 data expected later this year, which could redefine the company's valuation outlook.
- Commercial Expansion Plans: Moderna plans to launch up to three new products between 2027 and 2028, including a novel norovirus vaccine and treatments for rare diseases, with a newly appointed chief commercial officer overseeing global launches, reflecting the company's confidence in future growth.
- Financial Status and Risks: Despite a 260% year-over-year revenue increase to $389 million in Q1, the company reported an EPS loss of $3.40, primarily due to a one-time litigation loss; however, with $7.5 billion in cash and low debt levels, Moderna is well-positioned for future development and achieving breakeven by 2028.
See More
Moderna's Flu Vaccine Gains FDA Advisory Panel Support
- Vaccine Safety Assessment: The FDA advisory panel unanimously concluded that the benefits of Moderna's mRNA flu vaccine, mRNA-1010, outweigh the risks for individuals aged 50 to 75, indicating its potential value in the elderly population.
- Clinical Trial Data: The committee's decision was based on data from several studies, including a late-stage trial involving over 40,000 adults aged 50 and older (Study 304) and another targeting nearly 3,000 adults aged 65 and above (Study 303 Part C), providing robust support for the vaccine's efficacy.
- Approval Process Review: Despite facing a significant setback in February when the FDA issued a refusal-to-file letter citing a lack of “adequate and well-controlled” trials, the agency reversed its decision later that month, reflecting a renewed assessment of the vaccine's potential.
- Future Outlook: Moderna's Biologics License Application (BLA) is expected to reach an FDA action date of August 5, and if approved, it will lay the groundwork for the company's further expansion in the flu vaccine market.
See More
Moderna's mRNA Flu Vaccine Receives Key Support from Advisory Committee
- Vaccine Receives Unanimous Support: The Vaccines and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee voted 9-0 that the benefits of mRNA-1010 (mFLUSIVA) outweigh its risks for adults aged 50-64, highlighting its potential importance for seasonal flu prevention in older adults.
- FDA Review Progress: The FDA is considering the advisory committee's non-binding recommendations and is expected to make a decision on Moderna's Biologics License Application by August 5, which could significantly impact the company's future market performance.
- Positive Stock Reaction: Following the committee's vote, Moderna's (MRNA) shares rose about 3%, with a cumulative increase of over 28% this week, marking its best performance since March 2022, reflecting market optimism regarding vaccine approval.
- Future Product Strategy: Moderna announced organizational changes to prepare for multiple product launches expected in 2027 and 2028, with the CEO stating that these moves will strengthen execution and support the commercialization of the flu vaccine and flu-COVID combination vaccine.
See More
Moderna's Influenza Vaccine Receives FDA Advisory Support
- Clinical Trial Results: Moderna's mRNA-1010 influenza vaccine received a 9-0 vote of support from the FDA's Vaccines Advisory Committee, indicating that its benefits outweigh risks for adults aged 50-64 and those 65 and older, highlighting its potential market value among older demographics.
- Safety Assessment: The safety profile observed in the Phase 3 clinical trial was consistent with previous candidates, enhancing its credibility as a differentiated non-egg-based option for influenza prevention, which may attract more healthcare institutions focused on elderly health.
- Regulatory Review Progress: The FDA has accepted the Biologics License Application (BLA) for mRNA-1010, setting a PDUFA goal date of August 5, 2026, indicating a clearer timeline for market launch that could provide new revenue streams for Moderna.
- Global Expansion Plans: Moderna plans to submit regulatory applications in 2026 across multiple countries including the U.S., EU, Canada, and Australia, demonstrating its strategic intent to promote mRNA-1010 globally and further solidify its leadership in the mRNA medicine field.
See More
Moderna Reports 260% Revenue Growth in Q1, Expands mRNA Applications
- Significant Revenue Growth: Moderna reported $389 million in revenue for Q1, marking a 260% year-over-year increase, demonstrating the company's successful diversification despite challenges from declining COVID-19 vaccine sales.
- Vaccine Development Progress: The mFlusiva seasonal influenza vaccine performed well in phase 3 trials, with the FDA's decision expected on August 5; if approved, it could provide a significant boost to the company's market share for the 2026-2027 flu season.
- Cancer Vaccine Development: The personalized cancer vaccine intismeran (mRNA-4157), developed in partnership with Merck, showed sustained efficacy in high-risk melanoma patients, with pivotal phase 3 data readouts expected later this year, potentially redefining the company's valuation.
- Financial Status and Risks: Despite reporting a Q1 EPS loss of $3.40, Moderna maintains $7.5 billion in cash and low debt levels, providing a solid financial runway for upcoming product launches, with a goal of achieving overall breakeven by 2028.
See More
Moderna's Diversification Strategy Boosts Stock Recovery
- Vaccine Development Progress: Moderna is aggressively developing its mFlusiva seasonal influenza vaccine, which performed well in phase 3 trials, with the FDA's decision expected on August 5; if approved, it could provide a new revenue stream for the 2026-2027 flu season.
- Cancer Vaccine Innovation: The personalized cancer vaccine intismeran (mRNA-4157), developed in partnership with Merck, shows promising sustained efficacy in high-risk melanoma patients, with pivotal phase 3 data expected later this year, potentially opening new market opportunities for Moderna.
- Commercial Expansion Plans: Moderna aims to launch up to three new products between 2027 and 2028, including a novel norovirus vaccine and treatments for rare diseases, recently appointing a new chief commercial officer to drive successful global launches, reflecting confidence in future growth.
- Financial Status Analysis: Despite reporting $389 million in revenue for Q1, a 260% year-over-year increase, the company faced a $3.40 EPS loss due to a one-time litigation charge; however, with $7.5 billion in cash, Moderna has a comfortable runway to achieve its goal of breakeven by 2028.
See More
Moderna's Progress in Vaccine Diversification
- Vaccine Diversification Strategy: Moderna is aggressively expanding its vaccine portfolio, particularly with the mFlusiva vaccine for influenza, which performed well in phase 3 trials, with the FDA expected to make a decision by August 5; if approved, it could provide a new option for the 2026-2027 flu season, significantly enhancing the company's competitive position in the vaccine market.
- Personalized Cancer Vaccine Development: The individualized cancer vaccine intismeran (mRNA-4157), developed in partnership with Merck, has shown promising efficacy in high-risk melanoma patients, with pivotal phase 3 data expected later this year, which could redefine the company's valuation outlook.
- Commercial Expansion Plans: Moderna plans to launch up to three new products between 2027 and 2028, including a novel norovirus vaccine and treatments for rare diseases, with a newly appointed chief commercial officer overseeing global launches, reflecting the company's confidence in future growth.
- Financial Status and Risks: Despite a 260% year-over-year revenue increase to $389 million in Q1, the company reported an EPS loss of $3.40, primarily due to a one-time litigation loss; however, with $7.5 billion in cash and low debt levels, Moderna is well-positioned for future development and achieving breakeven by 2028.
See More
Moderna's Flu Vaccine Gains FDA Advisory Panel Support
- Vaccine Safety Assessment: The FDA advisory panel unanimously concluded that the benefits of Moderna's mRNA flu vaccine, mRNA-1010, outweigh the risks for individuals aged 50 to 75, indicating its potential value in the elderly population.
- Clinical Trial Data: The committee's decision was based on data from several studies, including a late-stage trial involving over 40,000 adults aged 50 and older (Study 304) and another targeting nearly 3,000 adults aged 65 and above (Study 303 Part C), providing robust support for the vaccine's efficacy.
- Approval Process Review: Despite facing a significant setback in February when the FDA issued a refusal-to-file letter citing a lack of “adequate and well-controlled” trials, the agency reversed its decision later that month, reflecting a renewed assessment of the vaccine's potential.
- Future Outlook: Moderna's Biologics License Application (BLA) is expected to reach an FDA action date of August 5, and if approved, it will lay the groundwork for the company's further expansion in the flu vaccine market.
See More
Moderna's mRNA Flu Vaccine Receives Key Support from Advisory Committee
- Vaccine Receives Unanimous Support: The Vaccines and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee voted 9-0 that the benefits of mRNA-1010 (mFLUSIVA) outweigh its risks for adults aged 50-64, highlighting its potential importance for seasonal flu prevention in older adults.
- FDA Review Progress: The FDA is considering the advisory committee's non-binding recommendations and is expected to make a decision on Moderna's Biologics License Application by August 5, which could significantly impact the company's future market performance.
- Positive Stock Reaction: Following the committee's vote, Moderna's (MRNA) shares rose about 3%, with a cumulative increase of over 28% this week, marking its best performance since March 2022, reflecting market optimism regarding vaccine approval.
- Future Product Strategy: Moderna announced organizational changes to prepare for multiple product launches expected in 2027 and 2028, with the CEO stating that these moves will strengthen execution and support the commercialization of the flu vaccine and flu-COVID combination vaccine.
See More
Moderna's Influenza Vaccine Receives FDA Advisory Support
- Clinical Trial Results: Moderna's mRNA-1010 influenza vaccine received a 9-0 vote of support from the FDA's Vaccines Advisory Committee, indicating that its benefits outweigh risks for adults aged 50-64 and those 65 and older, highlighting its potential market value among older demographics.
- Safety Assessment: The safety profile observed in the Phase 3 clinical trial was consistent with previous candidates, enhancing its credibility as a differentiated non-egg-based option for influenza prevention, which may attract more healthcare institutions focused on elderly health.
- Regulatory Review Progress: The FDA has accepted the Biologics License Application (BLA) for mRNA-1010, setting a PDUFA goal date of August 5, 2026, indicating a clearer timeline for market launch that could provide new revenue streams for Moderna.
- Global Expansion Plans: Moderna plans to submit regulatory applications in 2026 across multiple countries including the U.S., EU, Canada, and Australia, demonstrating its strategic intent to promote mRNA-1010 globally and further solidify its leadership in the mRNA medicine field.
See More
