Intel Stock Plunges After Weak Guidance and Supply Shortage Warning
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Jan 23 2026
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Should l Buy INTC?
Source: Newsfilter
Intel's stock fell 5.01% as it crossed below the 20-day SMA, reflecting investor concerns following a weak earnings outlook and supply shortage warning.
Intel's guidance indicates first-quarter revenue between $11.7 billion and $12.7 billion, with breakeven adjusted earnings per share, falling short of market expectations of $12.51 billion and 5 cents. CEO Lip-Bu Tan warned that production efficiency is below targets, and the company cannot meet full product demand, suggesting a multi-year journey to restore production capabilities. Despite previous investments from the U.S. government and others, investors are seeking clear progress on foundry customers as the next catalyst for stock growth.
The implications of this guidance are significant, as it highlights ongoing challenges for Intel in a competitive semiconductor market. The inability to meet demand could hinder future growth and investor confidence.
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Analyst Views on INTC
Wall Street analysts forecast INTC stock price to fall
29 Analyst Rating
5 Buy
19 Hold
5 Sell
Hold
Current: 46.480
Low
20.00
Averages
39.30
High
52.00
Current: 46.480
Low
20.00
Averages
39.30
High
52.00
About INTC
Intel Corporation is a global designer and manufacturer of semiconductor products. The Company operates through three segments: Intel Products, Intel Foundry, and All Other. Its Intel Products segment includes Client Computing Group (CCG), Data Center and AI (DCAI), Network and Edge (NEX). The CCG is bringing together the operating system, system architecture, hardware, and software application integration to enable PC experiences. DCAI delivers workload-optimized solutions to cloud service providers and enterprises, along with silicon devices for communications service providers, network and edge, and HPC customers. NEX helps networks and edge compute systems from fixed-function hardware to general-purpose compute, acceleration, and networking devices running cloud native software on programmable hardware. The Intel Foundry segment comprises technology development, manufacturing and foundry services. All Other segments include Altera, Mobileye, Other.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Management Changes: Following $15.9 billion in impairment and $2.8 billion in restructuring charges, Intel's board forced former CEO Pat Gelsinger to resign, appointing Lip-Bu Tan as the new CEO in hopes of revitalizing performance.
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See More
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- Stock Rebound: Intel's stock nearly doubled in 2025, yet the company's fundamental business metrics remain unhealed, indicating disappointment among long-term shareholders.
- Revenue and Profit Decline: In 2022, Intel's revenue plunged by 20% and net income fell nearly 40%, with a further 80% drop in net income in 2023, reflecting the impact of high inflation and macroeconomic pressures on demand.
- Management Changes: Following $15.9 billion in impairment and $2.8 billion in restructuring charges, Intel's board forced former CEO Pat Gelsinger to resign, appointing Lip-Bu Tan as the new CEO in hopes of revitalizing performance.
- Future Outlook: Despite a rise in gross margin to 34.8% in 2025, Intel reported a GAAP loss of approximately $300 million, as weakness in the PC segment offset gains in data center and AI sales, leaving the success of its rebound uncertain.
See More
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- Significant Stock Decline: IBM's stock fell 12.2% last week, reaching a five-month low and marking its steepest weekly decline in nearly six years, reflecting heightened investor concerns over technology stocks amid rising Treasury yields.
- Market Sentiment Shift: Despite an upbeat earnings report from IBM last month and generally positive results from major tech firms, the sector faced a sharp selloff, with the Nasdaq 100 declining 2.1% for the fifth consecutive week, indicating a broader profit-taking trend.
- Acquisition Plans and Growth Outlook: IBM's recent $11 billion acquisition of cloud company Confluent and rapid growth in its AI business, along with a forecast for 2026 revenue exceeding analyst expectations, position the company as a long-term investment opportunity despite short-term stock price declines.
- Divergent Analyst Opinions: Among 21 analysts covering IBM, 11 recommend 'Buy' or higher, 7 suggest 'Hold', and 3 advise 'Sell', with an average price target of $324.95 indicating a potential 24% upside, highlighting the mixed sentiment regarding IBM's future prospects.
See More
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- Shift in Market Sentiment: Since 2022, investor fears of a bear market have intensified, with value, dividend, and international stocks leading the way despite the S&P 500 being virtually flat in 2026, indicating a cautious outlook on economic prospects.
- Economic Growth Expectations: While current GDP and earnings growth expectations remain stable and inflation is not raising immediate concerns, worries about the job market and tariff impacts could make stocks vulnerable to corrections, prompting investors to consider portfolio adjustments in anticipation of potential changes.
- Bond Investment Strategy: The Vanguard Short-Term Treasury ETF (VGSH) focuses on short-term bonds, offering a 3.6% yield that helps investors maintain low volatility during stock downturns, effectively eliminating default risk and serving as a preferred safe asset.
- Defensive Stock Allocation: The Vanguard U.S. Minimum Volatility ETF (VFMV) reduces portfolio risk by investing in low-volatility stocks, with current sector allocations of 26% technology, 12% industrials, and 11% consumer discretionary, providing a buffer against market fluctuations.
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- Clear Competitive Advantage: With U.S. energy demand skyrocketing and a projected grid deficit of over 100 gigawatts in the next five years, Bloom Energy's solid oxide fuel cell technology allows for rapid installation, positioning the company favorably in a competitive landscape.
- Sustained Growth Momentum: Partnerships with Brookfield Asset Management and Oracle are set to increase Bloom's capacity from 1 GW to 2 GW by the end of 2026, further solidifying its market position and driving revenue growth.
- Impressive Financial Performance: Bloom Energy has achieved record revenue for four consecutive quarters and reported profitability in its latest earnings, with 2026 revenue guidance exceeding $3 billion and a backlog of $20 billion, indicating strong business growth potential.
See More
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- Merger Prospects for AWK: American Water Works (AWK) faces pressure from high interest rates and regulatory scrutiny, yet its merger with Essential Utilities has shareholder approval; if regulatory approval is granted, it could help maintain long-term earnings and dividend growth targets of 7%-9%.
- PayPal Management Change: Following a 21% drop in PayPal's stock price, the new CEO may consider strategic alternatives; with a current valuation below 8 times forward earnings, any proactive measures from management could trigger a rebound in stock price and restore investor confidence.
- Widespread AI Concerns: The market's apprehension regarding the potential disruptive impact of generative AI across various sectors has led to significant sell-offs, affecting not only tech stocks but also non-tech names, reflecting a cautious investor sentiment about the economic outlook.
See More
Intel Faces Challenges in Transformation Strategy
- Escalating Financial Losses: Intel's foundry segment reported $4.5 billion in revenue for Q4 2025 but suffered an operating loss of $2.5 billion, with operating margins plummeting to -50%, indicating severe profitability issues that could jeopardize the company's overall financial health.
- Strategic Transformation Uncertainty: Despite CEO Lip-Bu Tan's strategic shifts over the past year, there remains significant uncertainty in the market regarding Intel's direction over the next five years, necessitating patience from investors as they await tangible results from the turnaround efforts.
- AI Market Opportunities: Intel views artificial intelligence as a critical growth avenue, aiming to leverage its x86 CPU architecture and AI accelerator chips to meet the demands of hyperscale data centers, although it still needs to catch up with rivals Nvidia and AMD in the GPU space.
- High Stock Price Risks: Although Intel's stock has surged over the past year, its forward P/E ratio is now close to 50 times, reflecting excessive optimism about the company's ability to transform quickly, which may lead to potential disappointment for investors.
See More
