Five Below's new toy drives growth potential and sales forecast upgrade
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: May 05 2026
0mins
Source: CNBC
Five Below Inc's stock fell 6.74% and hit a 20-day low amid broader market gains.
Analyst Spencer Hanus highlighted that Five Below's new 'squish' toy dumpling is a crucial growth driver, with a projected 26% upside in stock price. He anticipates that same-store sales could reach as high as 20% in Q1, significantly exceeding the market consensus of 16%, indicating strong consumer enthusiasm for the new toys. The scarcity of 'squish' toys has notably boosted customer revisit rates, enhancing the company's competitive position in the market.
The positive outlook from analysts regarding the new product and sales growth suggests that Five Below is well-positioned to capitalize on current market trends, despite the recent stock decline.
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Analyst Views on FIVE
Wall Street analysts forecast FIVE stock price to fall
19 Analyst Rating
11 Buy
7 Hold
1 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 224.900
Low
132.00
Averages
193.47
High
242.00
Current: 224.900
Low
132.00
Averages
193.47
High
242.00
About FIVE
Five Below, Inc. is a specialty value retailer offering merchandise targeted at the tween and teen demographics. Its assortment of products, including select brands and licensed merchandise. It is engaged in offering a group of products, including leisure, fashion and home, and snacks and seasonal. Leisure includes items such as sporting goods, games, toys, tech, books, electronic accessories, arts and crafts, and party. Fashion and home include items, such as personal accessories, attitude t-shirts, beauty offerings, home goods and storage options. Snack and seasonal include items, such as seasonal goods, greeting cards, candy and other snacks, and beverages. It also offers its merchandise on the Internet, through its fivebelow.com e-commerce Website, offering home delivery and the option to buy online and pick up in store. It also sells its merchandise through on-demand third-party delivery services to enable its customers to shop online and receive convenient delivery.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Conference Call Timing: The company will host a conference call at 4:30 p.m. Eastern Time to discuss the financial results, which is anticipated to attract significant attention from investors and analysts, thereby enhancing market transparency and trust in its performance.
- Online Webcast: The conference call will be available via live audio webcast on Five Below's investor website, with a replay accessible shortly after the call, ensuring that investors who cannot participate live can still obtain key information, thus improving information accessibility.
- Company Background: Founded in 2002, Five Below is a leading growth retailer offering high-quality products priced between $1 and $5, with over 1,900 stores across 46 states, showcasing strong market expansion capabilities and brand appeal, further solidifying its position in the retail industry.
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- Optimistic Sales Expectations: Citi Research analyst Paul Lejuez anticipates that Five Below's Q1 comparable store sales will reach 19%, exceeding the company's guidance of 14% to 16% and the consensus estimate of 16.5%, reflecting strong market demand for its products.
- Cost Pressures Impacting Profits: Despite the optimistic sales outlook, increased freight costs associated with the squish dumpling product are expected to pressure profits and gross margins, particularly as rising fuel prices account for 3.5% of COGS.
- Cautious Future Guidance: Lejuez expects that, while the first quarter shows strong performance, Five Below may raise its FY26 comp guidance to 5% to 7%, yet management remains cautious about consumer spending in the second half due to high gas prices affecting discretionary income.
See More
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