CF Industries projects significant ammonia production growth by 2025
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Jan 19 2026
0mins
Should l Buy CF?
Source: NASDAQ.COM
CF Industries' stock rose 3.30% as it reached a 20-day high amid a challenging market environment where both the Nasdaq-100 and S&P 500 fell by 1.32%.
The company maintains its forecast of producing 10 million tons of ammonia by 2025, driven by tight global nitrogen supply and low inventories, which are expected to ensure robust demand across North America, India, and Brazil. Additionally, CF Industries reported a 6% earnings beat in Q3, with high ammonia network utilization, further solidifying its leadership in the nitrogen fertilizer market. Analysts have raised price targets to $95, indicating potential for the stock to break long-term resistance.
This positive outlook on production and earnings reflects CF Industries' strong position in the market, suggesting that the company is well-prepared to capitalize on increasing demand for nitrogen fertilizers, which could lead to further stock appreciation.
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Analyst Views on CF
Wall Street analysts forecast CF stock price to fall
11 Analyst Rating
2 Buy
7 Hold
2 Sell
Hold
Current: 95.820
Low
72.00
Averages
87.55
High
100.00
Current: 95.820
Low
72.00
Averages
87.55
High
100.00
About CF
CF Industries Holdings, Inc. is a global manufacturer of hydrogen and nitrogen products. The Company is focused on decarbonizing its ammonia production network to enable low-carbon hydrogen and nitrogen products for energy, fertilizer, emissions abatement and other industrial activities. The Company's segments include Ammonia, Granular Urea, UAN, AN and Other. Ammonia segment produces anhydrous ammonia (ammonia), which is the base product that it manufactures (containing 82% nitrogen and 18% hydrogen). Granular Urea segment produces granular urea, which contains 46% nitrogen. UAN segment produces urea ammonium nitrate solution (UAN). AN segment produces ammonium nitrate (AN). Other segment primarily includes products, such as diesel exhaust fluid (DEF), urea liquor and nitric acid. Its manufacturing complexes in the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom, a storage, transportation and distribution network in North America, and logistics capabilities enable a global reach.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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See More
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- Comparison with Estimates: This figure exceeds Ibes' estimate of USD 1,781 million.
See More
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- Financial Performance: The financial results indicate a strong performance for the company in the last quarter of the fiscal year.
See More
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- Earnings Estimate Fluctuations: Over the past three months, EPS estimates for CF Industries have seen four upward revisions and four downward adjustments, indicating a divergence in analysts' views on the company's profitability, which could impact investor confidence and stock price volatility.
- Revenue Estimate Adjustments: Similarly, revenue estimates have experienced three upward and three downward revisions, reflecting varying market perceptions of the company's sales capabilities in the current economic climate, which may directly affect its market performance.
- Industry Dynamics: CF Industries will also present at the Goldman Sachs Industrials and Materials Conference in 2025, enhancing its visibility in the industry while monitoring Mosaic's upgrade in the fertilizer market, which could influence CF's market strategy.
See More
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- Market Weakness: The S&P 500 index fell by 0.28%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased by 0.54%, and the Nasdaq 100 index dropped by 0.41%, indicating market concerns over the outlook for artificial intelligence, particularly affecting chipmakers and AI infrastructure stocks.
- Mixed Economic Data: Initial jobless claims in the US fell to 206,000, a 5-week low, indicating a strong labor market; however, the December trade deficit widened to $70.3 billion, exceeding expectations, reflecting uncertainties in economic recovery.
- Shifts in Fed Policy Expectations: Hawkish comments from Fed officials suggest a potential need for interest rate hikes to combat persistent inflation, leading to a more hawkish outlook for future rate paths, which further dampens market sentiment.
- Earnings Season Nearing Conclusion: With over three-quarters of S&P 500 companies reporting, 74% exceeded expectations, and Q4 earnings are projected to grow by 8.4%, demonstrating corporate resilience, yet the market remains cautious about future growth prospects.
See More
CF Industries Q4 2025 Earnings Call Insights
- Strong Performance: CF Industries reported approximately $2.9 billion in adjusted EBITDA for 2025, reflecting outstanding operational performance and favorable industry dynamics, indicating sustained market competitiveness into 2026.
- Shareholder Returns: The company returned $1.7 billion to shareholders in 2025, including the repurchase of 16.6 million shares, approximately 10% of the outstanding shares at the beginning of the year, demonstrating a strong commitment to shareholder value.
- Production Outlook Downgrade: Due to the Yazoo City incident, total ammonia production is expected to drop to approximately 9.5 million tons in 2026, down from previous expectations of 10 million tons, which could impact future revenue growth.
- Capital Expenditure Plans: Projected capital expenditures for 2026 are approximately $1.3 billion, with CF Industries' share around $950 million, covering sustaining CapEx for existing networks and the Blue Point joint venture, indicating ongoing investment in expanding and maintaining production capacity.
See More
