Aluminum Prices Surge Amid Supply Concerns, Affecting Alcoa
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Mar 17 2026
0mins
Source: seekingalpha
Alcoa Corp (AA) has seen a significant decline of 5.04%, hitting a 5-day low amid broader market weakness, with the Nasdaq-100 down 2.27% and the S&P 500 down 1.08%.
The recent surge in aluminum prices, which rose 1.3% to $3,765 per ton, is driven by supply concerns, particularly due to production losses in the Middle East. Alcoa's CEO has indicated that a real physical scarcity of aluminum could emerge in Europe or North America within the next six months, reflecting geopolitical risks that may impact the aluminum market. This context has led to a sector rotation, with Alcoa's stock moving down despite the positive outlook for aluminum prices.
The implications of these developments suggest that while aluminum prices are expected to rise, Alcoa's current stock performance is being negatively impacted by market conditions and supply chain issues. Investors may need to reassess their positions in light of these factors.
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Analyst Views on AA
Wall Street analysts forecast AA stock price to fall
8 Analyst Rating
2 Buy
4 Hold
2 Sell
Hold
Current: 61.730
Low
38.00
Averages
57.63
High
78.00
Current: 61.730
Low
38.00
Averages
57.63
High
78.00
About AA
Alcoa Corporation is a vertically integrated aluminum company comprised of bauxite mining, alumina refining, aluminum production (smelting and casting), and energy generation. The Company's operations are comprised of two business segments: Alumina and Aluminum. The Alumina segment primarily consists of its bauxite mines and alumina refineries, and its operations include the mining of bauxite and other aluminous ores, as well as the refining, production, and sale of smelter grade and non-metallurgical alumina. The alumina produced by this segment is sold primarily to internal and external aluminum smelter customers; a portion of the alumina is sold to external customers who process it into industrial chemical products. The Aluminum segment consists of the Company's aluminum smelting and casting operations along with the Company's energy production assets in Brazil, Canada, and the United States. It has direct and indirect ownership of over 25 operating locations across eight countries.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Successful Capacity Restart: The successful restart of Production Line 2 at Lista has achieved a nameplate capacity of 95,000 metric tonnes, following a restart of 31,000 metric tonnes, demonstrating the plant's production potential under stable power supply conditions.
- Electricity Delivery Volume: The new agreements cover approximately 4.8 TWh of electricity deliveries from 2028 to 2031, ensuring power stability for the coming years and supporting the plant's long-term operations and growth.
- Operational Milestone: Alcoa Lista's operations manager, Tor Arne Berg, emphasized that restarting operations at Lista is a significant milestone, with stable power supply being essential for the next steps, reflecting the company's confidence in future growth.
See More
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- Earnings Announcement Schedule: Alcoa Corporation plans to release its Q2 2026 financial results on July 16, 2026, after the NYSE closes, demonstrating its commitment to financial transparency and investor relations.
- Conference Call Details: The company will host a conference call on July 16, 2026, at 5:00 p.m. EDT, where executives will discuss the financial results, enhancing engagement and communication with investors.
- Webcast Availability: The earnings release and conference call will be webcast live on Alcoa's website, ensuring global investors can access real-time information, thereby improving information dissemination efficiency.
- Replay Information: A replay of the conference call will be available starting at 8:00 p.m. EDT on July 16 until July 23, allowing investors who cannot participate live to access key information.
See More
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- New Labor Agreement Effective: Alcoa Corporation has ratified a new labor agreement with the United Steelworkers covering approximately 965 employees, effective from May 16, 2023, to May 15, 2030, ensuring stable operations at its smelters in Indiana and New York.
- Employee Protections Enhanced: The agreement reflects the company's commitment to employee rights, aiming to improve working conditions and protections, thereby enhancing employee satisfaction and productivity, which is crucial for overall operational efficiency.
- Stock Price Volatility Impact: Despite the positive development of the new agreement, Alcoa's shares are trading at $65.02, down 5.45% on the New York Stock Exchange, indicating market concerns regarding the company's future outlook.
- Commitment to Community and Customers: Alcoa emphasizes its focus on maintaining safe and reliable operations while serving customers and communities, highlighting the company's strategic positioning in upholding social responsibility.
See More
Alcoa Ratifies New Labor Agreement with USW
- Agreement Overview: Alcoa has ratified a new labor agreement with the United Steelworkers (USW) that covers approximately 965 employees at Warrick Operations in Indiana and Massena Operations in New York, effective from May 16, 2026, to May 15, 2030.
- Voting Outcome: The agreement was ratified by a wide margin, indicating strong support from union members and reflecting a positive relationship between the company and the union, which is crucial for future collaboration and stability.
- Operational Commitment: Alcoa emphasizes its focus on maintaining safe and reliable operations while serving customers and communities, ensuring production efficiency and employee satisfaction throughout the agreement's duration.
- Company Vision: Alcoa aims to drive safety, efficiency, and sustainability through innovation and best practices, with a vision to build a legacy of excellence for future generations, further solidifying its global leadership in the aluminum industry.
See More
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- Aluminum Price Drop: Aluminum prices in London fell to a two-month low on Monday, with benchmark three-month aluminum futures dropping over 3% to $3,426 per metric ton, reflecting heightened market concerns over supply disruptions.
- Supply Chain Recovery: The US-Iran framework deal is expected to restore metal shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, alleviating supply disruptions in the Persian Gulf, although the Middle East still accounts for about 9% of global aluminum output.
- Production Decline: Gulf producers experienced a 35% year-over-year drop in aluminum output in April due to significant damage to infrastructure from Iranian attacks, further exacerbating supply tensions in the market.
- Market Reaction: While aluminum prices fell, other metals like copper and tin rose, indicating concerns over the strong correlation between aluminum and energy prices, with analysts noting that the market still faces a significant supply gap.
See More
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- General Dynamics Upgrade: General Dynamics saw its shares increase nearly 5% after Jefferies upgraded its rating to buy, citing significant returns on investments and continued strength in near-term results, with a new price target of $400 implying a 17% upside.
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