XRP Value Continues to Decline as Excitement for Ripple's Swell Conference Fades
XRP Price Decline: Despite the upcoming Ripple Swell conference, XRP has dropped 7.5% this week, trading around $2.49, as investor sentiment remains cautious and expectations for significant announcements are low.
Swell Conference Lineup: The conference features notable speakers, including White House crypto adviser Patrick Witt and executives from major financial institutions, focusing on topics like tokenized assets and cross-border payments.
Market Sentiment: Unlike previous years where Swell events led to price surges, current market sentiment is weary, with traders showing less enthusiasm for potential partnerships or adoption stories.
Technical Indicators: XRP's price action suggests further downside risk, with bearish signals from technical indicators and a potential drop to $2.09 if it falls below key support levels.
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- IPO Timeline: SpaceX is set to debut on Nasdaq on June 12, aiming to become the largest IPO in history with a target valuation of $1.75 trillion, showcasing the company's strong potential in AI and the space economy.
- Market Rule Change: Nasdaq's new rule allows companies to enter the Nasdaq-100 index after just 15 trading days post-IPO, which could lead to a surge in SpaceX's stock value on July 7, potentially adding $200 billion to $270 billion in market capitalization.
- Investor Caution: Despite the excitement surrounding SpaceX's IPO, historical trends indicate that many mega-IPOs perform poorly in their early days, advising retail investors to be cautious and avoid chasing hot stocks.
- Valuation Risks: SpaceX's price-to-sales ratio is nearly 94, significantly higher than the typical range of 30 to 45 for industry peers, and coupled with substantial operating losses and a capital-intensive model, this could diminish its post-IPO appeal.
- Record-Setting IPO: SpaceX is set to debut on June 12 with a target valuation of $1.75 trillion, aiming to surpass Saudi Aramco's $29.4 billion IPO record, although historical trends suggest that most mega-IPOs perform poorly, advising retail investors to be cautious.
- Nasdaq Rule Change: A new Nasdaq rule allows for rapid inclusion into the Nasdaq-100 index within 15 trading days post-IPO, potentially leading to a significant stock price surge on July 7, with estimated inflows of $22 billion to $27 billion from index funds.
- Overvaluation Risks: SpaceX's price-to-sales ratio is nearly 94, significantly higher than the historical range of 30 to 45 for hot IPOs, indicating potential overvaluation, compounded by substantial operating losses and a capital-intensive business model.
- Historical Performance Warning: Since the late 1990s, many large IPOs have stumbled post-debut, with examples like Facebook and Saudi Aramco showing that retail investors often incur losses, suggesting caution regarding SpaceX's upcoming IPO.
- Record IPO Size: SpaceX is set to debut on June 12, aiming to raise approximately $75 billion and achieve a valuation of $1.75 trillion, marking the largest IPO in history; however, its high valuation raises market concerns.
- Poor Financial Performance: SpaceX generated $18.67 billion in sales in 2025, but if valued at $1.75 trillion, it would have a price-to-sales ratio nearing 94, significantly exceeding sustainable industry levels, indicating a lack of growth potential.
- Competitive Pressure on xAI: SpaceX's AI subsidiary, xAI, is struggling against competitors like OpenAI, with first-quarter sales of $818 million reflecting only a 12.5% year-over-year growth, while rival Anthropic achieved triple-digit growth.
- Accounting Transparency Issues: SpaceX's financial statements exhibit accounting maneuvers, reporting $6.58 billion in adjusted EBITDA while recognizing a net loss of $4.94 billion, highlighting severe profitability concerns.
- Record-Breaking IPO: SpaceX is set to launch its IPO on June 12, aiming to raise approximately $75 billion with a valuation of $1.75 trillion; however, its projected price-to-sales ratio of nearly 94 raises concerns about long-term sustainability, potentially deterring investors.
- Weak Sales Growth: Despite xAI's total addressable market of $26.5 trillion, its first-quarter revenue of $818 million reflects only a 12.5% year-over-year increase, indicating significant growth challenges in the highly competitive AI sector, which could impact investor sentiment.
- Poor Financial Health: SpaceX reported a net loss of $5 billion in 2025, and while it claimed a positive adjusted EBITDA of $6.58 billion, the substantial $8.65 billion gap due to depreciation and stock-based compensation raises serious questions about its profitability, likely affecting investor confidence.
- Partnership Risks: The $1.25 billion monthly compute partnership with Anthropic, while beneficial in the short term, can be terminated with just 90 days' notice, introducing revenue uncertainty that could negatively impact the IPO's performance and investor outlook.
- Staggering Market Potential: SpaceX's S1 filing estimates its total addressable market (TAM) at $28.5 trillion, labeled as the largest actionable market in human history, which, if accurate, strongly supports its $1.75 trillion IPO valuation.
- Diverse Revenue Streams: Starlink, as SpaceX's cash cow, generated $11.4 billion in revenue last year, accounting for about 60% of total revenue, highlighting its significance in future operations, although management believes xAI may hold greater long-term value.
- Capital Expenditure Raises Eyebrows: The $12.7 billion in capital expenditures incurred by xAI post-merger has caught analysts' attention, indicating SpaceX's substantial investment in AI and its strategic positioning for future business.
- Investor Confidence Challenge: While SpaceX's TAM figure has sparked market excitement, skepticism about its realizability persists, akin to challenges faced by Tesla, suggesting that future investor assessments of SpaceX will hinge on perceptions of its primary business direction.
- Historic IPO Plan: SpaceX is set to list on NASDAQ with a valuation of approximately $1.75 trillion, making it the largest IPO in history and instantly positioning it as the largest industrial company in the market, showcasing its leadership in the aerospace sector.
- Revenue Source Analysis: Starlink, as SpaceX's cash cow, generated $11.4 billion in revenue last year, accounting for about 60% of the company's total revenue, indicating its strong competitive position in the satellite internet market.
- Massive Market Potential: SpaceX's S1 filing reveals a total addressable market of $28.5 trillion, with $22.7 trillion related to enterprise applications, highlighting its long-term growth potential, particularly in the strategic xAI sector.
- Investor Confidence Challenge: Despite the enormous market potential, there is significant skepticism regarding the $28.5 trillion addressable market figure, and investors' perceptions of SpaceX's future business will directly impact its stock performance post-IPO.











