Will Investor Sentiment for Klaviyo (KVYO) Show Signs of Improvement?
Sands Capital Q3 2025 Performance: The Sands Capital Technology Innovators Fund reported an 8.4% return in Q3 2025, underperforming the benchmark MSCI ACWI Info Tech and Communication Services Index, which returned 12.5%. The U.S. contributed significantly to global equity gains during this period.
Klaviyo, Inc. Overview: Klaviyo, Inc. (NYSE:KVYO) was highlighted in the investor letter, showing a one-month return of 7.65% but a 23.39% decline over the past year. The company reported a 32% year-over-year revenue increase, reaching $311 million in Q3 2025.
Investor Sentiment on Klaviyo: Despite Klaviyo's strong performance and growth potential, investor sentiment remains cautious due to broader market concerns. Sands Capital believes these concerns are largely unfounded and expects sentiment to improve with continued strong execution.
Comparison with AI Stocks: While acknowledging Klaviyo's potential, Sands Capital suggests that certain AI stocks may offer better upside potential and lower downside risk, indicating a strategic preference for AI investments over Klaviyo at this time.
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- Significant Revenue Growth: Klaviyo's Q4 revenue reached $350 million, marking a 30% year-over-year increase, indicating strong market performance that is likely to attract further investor interest.
- Improved Operational Efficiency: The company reported a non-GAAP operating income of $51 million with a 15% operating margin, demonstrating significant progress in cost control that enhances overall profitability.
- Customer Base Expansion: Klaviyo now serves over 193,000 customers across more than 100 countries, particularly excelling in its enterprise customer segment and international markets, reflecting strong demand and market penetration for its products.
- Analyst Rating Adjustment: Although Jefferies lowered Klaviyo's price target from $35 to $29, it maintained a Buy rating, indicating continued market confidence in the company's growth potential despite some long-term uncertainties around AI.
- Strong Quarterly Performance: Klaviyo reported Q4 earnings of $0.19 per share, exceeding the analyst consensus of $0.17, indicating sustained profitability and bolstering market confidence.
- Sales Beat Expectations: The company achieved quarterly sales of $350.195 million, surpassing the analyst estimate of $333.954 million, demonstrating robust market demand that could drive future growth.
- Optimistic Guidance: Klaviyo projects FY2026 sales between $1.501 billion and $1.509 billion, above market expectations of $1.481 billion, reflecting confidence in future performance and market potential.
- Positive Stock Reaction: Following the earnings announcement, Klaviyo shares rose 5.6% to $22.30 in pre-market trading, indicating investor approval of the company's results and outlook, potentially attracting more investor interest.
- Significant Revenue Growth: Klaviyo reported $1.234 billion in revenue for FY 2025, marking a 32% year-over-year increase, with international revenue accelerating to 42%, highlighting strong performance in global markets, particularly in enterprise and international segments.
- Expanded Customer Base: The company now serves over 193,000 customers, with 349 new customers contributing over $50,000 in ARR, setting a new record that underscores Klaviyo's success in attracting high-value clients and solidifying its market position.
- New Product Momentum: Klaviyo's newly launched AI-driven product category is noted as the fastest-growing in its history, expected to provide additional revenue growth momentum, with management projecting 2026 revenue between $1.501 billion and $1.509 billion, reflecting confidence in new offerings.
- Strong Cash Flow: The company achieved a 61% year-over-year increase in free cash flow to $87 million, with cash reserves surpassing $1 billion for the first time, demonstrating significant improvements in financial health and operational efficiency, providing a solid foundation for future investments and expansion.
- Earnings Announcement: Klaviyo (KVYO) is set to announce its Q4 earnings on February 10th after market close, with a consensus EPS estimate of $0.17, reflecting a substantial year-over-year growth of 142.9%, which could solidify its growth position in the market.
- Strong Revenue Expectations: Analysts project revenue to reach $333.98 million, representing a 23.6% year-over-year increase, indicating significant progress in expanding its customer base and market share.
- Record of Beating Estimates: Over the past year, Klaviyo has consistently beaten EPS and revenue estimates 100% of the time, showcasing its robust profitability and market adaptability, which enhances investor confidence.
- Estimates Revision Trend: In the last three months, EPS estimates have seen three upward revisions with no downward adjustments, while revenue estimates experienced four upward revisions and one downward, reflecting analysts' optimistic outlook on Klaviyo's future performance.
- Severe Market Drawdown: The iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (NYSE:IGV) has fallen for seven consecutive sessions, resulting in a 16% drop, marking the worst performance since the COVID panic in 2020, indicating immense pressure on the software sector.
- Widespread Negative Returns: Year to date, 100 out of 110 constituents in the software sector have posted negative returns, with over 20 stocks down more than 30%, reflecting growing concerns about the sustainability of software business models.
- Deteriorating Technical Indicators: A striking 97 of the IGV ETF's constituents are trading below their 200-day moving average, highlighting a broad breakdown in technical momentum, while the 14-day RSI has plummeted to 16, the lowest since September 2001, indicating extreme market pessimism.
- Pressure from Business Model Shifts: Macro strategists have noted that the rise of AI tools is replacing expensive SaaS platforms, leading to pricing pressures, slower renewals, and declining customer retention, prompting investors to rethink growth and value in the AI era.
- New App Launch: Klaviyo announced the release of a new app integrated with OpenAI's ChatGPT, initially focusing on reporting, with plans for additional features to enhance marketing organizations' efficiency.
- Stock Price Reaction: Klaviyo's shares rose 1% in midday trading, reflecting positive market sentiment towards the new app, which may drive further growth in the marketing technology sector.
- Marketing Transformation: Co-founder and CEO Andrew Bialecki stated that the app will enable marketers to create, review, or prep campaigns directly within ChatGPT, streamlining workflows and enhancing decision-making efficiency.
- Strategic Significance: The app's launch marks a significant step for Klaviyo in integrating data with action, aiming to provide marketers with real-time customer insights and reduce reliance on separate dashboards, thereby boosting the company's competitiveness in the rapidly evolving AI market.








