U.S. Beef Prices Surge to Record Highs Amid Supply Shortages
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Feb 19 2026
0mins
Source: Benzinga
- Beef Price Surge: The average price of beef in the U.S. has reached a record $6.67 per pound, reflecting a 20.5% increase over the past year, marking the fastest rise since 2018 and highlighting severe supply-demand imbalances.
- Historic Cattle Shortage: According to USDA data, U.S. cattle and calves inventory has fallen to approximately 85 million head, the lowest level since 1951, down about 45 million from the 1975 peak, contributing to ongoing price increases in beef.
- Future Supply Challenges: Even if ranchers begin expanding herds today, new supply is not expected to significantly reach grocery shelves until 2028 at the earliest, indicating the depth of the current cattle contraction and the slow recovery cycle ahead.
- Strong Demand and Price Forecast: The USDA projects total red meat and poultry production to reach 108.4 billion pounds in 2026, with beef production expected to decline again, yet strong consumer demand is anticipated to push beef prices up by 7%.
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Analyst Views on HRL
Wall Street analysts forecast HRL stock price to rise
5 Analyst Rating
3 Buy
2 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 20.750
Low
26.00
Averages
27.40
High
30.00
Current: 20.750
Low
26.00
Averages
27.40
High
30.00
About HRL
Hormel Foods Corporation is a global-branded food company. The Company develops, processes, and distributes a range of food products in a variety of markets. Its segments include Retail, Foodservice, and International. The Retail segment is primarily engaged in the processing, marketing, and sale of food products sold predominantly in the retail market. This segment also includes the Company’s MegaMex Foods, LLC joint venture. The Foodservice segment consists primarily of the processing, marketing, and sale of food products to foodservice, convenience store, and commercial customers located in the United States. The International segment processes, markets, and sells its products internationally. This segment also includes the results from the Company’s international joint ventures, international equity method investments, and international royalty arrangements. It has a global presence within several major international markets, including Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, and England.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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See More
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See More
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- Hormel Foods' Turnaround Signs: Hormel Foods, after years of restructuring, is showing early signs of success with organic growth rising for over a year, despite ongoing earnings pressure, and its 5.4% high dividend yield is attracting long-term investors looking for stability.
- Overall Industry Pressures: Food manufacturers are grappling with the impact of GLP-1 weight-loss drugs on eating habits, consumer spending cuts due to high costs and recession fears, and the burden of high oil and fertilizer prices, which may squeeze profit margins in the coming quarters, contributing to a bearish sentiment among investors towards food stocks.
See More
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- UPS's Transformation Progress: Despite challenges from Amazon's open delivery network, UPS is shifting towards higher-margin customers, achieving revenue per package growth, and is expected to reach a business inflection point in the second half of 2026, indicating strong long-term investment potential.
- Hormel's Brand Revamp: After a 60% drop in stock price, Hormel Foods is reworking its brand and product portfolio, with recent organic growth trending upward, and its 5.6% dividend yield providing stable returns for long-term investors, showcasing resilience during tough times.
- Medtronic's Focus Strategy: Medtronic is enhancing profitability by spinning off its diabetes business and launching new products like the Hugo surgical robot; despite a 40% stock price decline, its 3.6% dividend yield remains attractive to long-term investors, underscoring its leadership in the medical device sector.
- Importance of Dividends: UPS, Hormel, and Medtronic all offer stable dividends, helping investors maintain confidence during market volatility, and while the market may not fully recognize these companies' business improvements, their long-term outlook remains optimistic.
See More
Long-Term Investment Potential of UPS, Hormel, and Medtronic
- UPS Transformation Progress: Despite competition from Amazon, UPS is shifting towards higher-margin customers and expects to achieve a business turnaround by the second half of 2026, with revenue per package growth indicating management's successful strategy, while a 6.5% dividend yield attracts long-term investors.
- Hormel Brand Restructuring: Hormel Foods is reworking its brand and product portfolio after a 60% stock price decline, with recent organic growth trends improving; its 5.6% dividend yield and 46% controlling stake provide flexibility for long-term decision-making.
- Medtronic Profitability Focus: Medtronic is enhancing profitability by spinning off its diabetes business, which is expected to positively impact earnings; despite a 40% decline from its 2021 high, its 3.6% dividend yield remains appealing to long-term investors.
- Importance of Dividends: UPS, Hormel, and Medtronic offer stable dividends in an uncertain market, helping investors maintain confidence during volatility, while also making significant progress in their business overhauls.
See More
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- High Dividend Yield: Hormel Foods currently boasts a 5.6% dividend yield, supported by a 59-year streak of revenue growth, and despite a 13% decline in stock price year-to-date, the company maintains stable dividend payments, indicating financial health and market confidence.
- Expected Operating Income Growth: Hormel aims to increase its operating income to between $1.06 billion and $1.12 billion by 2026 through its 'Transform and Modernize' plan, significantly up from $719 million last fiscal year, demonstrating effective asset optimization and supply chain improvements.
- Analysts Bullish on Future: With a median price target of $27 per share, Hormel's stock implies a 31% upside over the next year, reflecting analysts' optimism regarding its transformation plan and market performance.
- No-Commission Reinvestment Advantage: Hormel allows investors to reinvest dividends without incurring brokerage fees, enhancing total returns, and with its current low valuation (forward P/E ratio of 14), it presents additional profit potential, further increasing its attractiveness.
See More
Hormel Foods Corporation Announces Q2 Earnings Call Invitation
- Earnings Release Schedule: Hormel Foods Corporation plans to release its second-quarter financial results before the market opens on May 28, 2026, followed by a conference call at 8 a.m. CT (9 a.m. ET) to provide investors with insights into its financial performance and future outlook.
- Executive Participation: The call will feature interim CEO Jeff Ettinger, President John Ghingo, and interim CFO Paul Kuehneman, ensuring that investors receive direct analysis and commentary from top management regarding the financial results.
- Investor Resources: The live webcast, replay, and related information will be available on Hormel Foods' investor website, enhancing transparency and communication efficiency for investors seeking the latest financial data and company updates.
- Company Background: Based in Austin, Minnesota, Hormel Foods generates over $12 billion in annual revenue and boasts a portfolio of well-known brands such as Planters®, Skippy®, and SPAM®, while receiving numerous accolades for corporate responsibility and community service, underscoring its leadership in the food industry.
See More
Food Industry Faces Multiple Challenges
- Market Pressure: Food manufacturers are grappling with the impact of GLP-1 weight-loss drugs on eating habits, alongside consumer spending cuts due to high costs and recession fears, leading to squeezed profit margins and a notable decline in investor confidence across the sector.
- Coca-Cola's Resilience: As one of the world's largest consumer staples companies, Coca-Cola achieved a 1% volume growth and a 5% organic sales increase in 2025, with a dividend yield of 2.6%, above the market average, indicating its long-term investment appeal despite challenging market conditions.
- General Mills' Challenges: General Mills is navigating industry-wide and company-specific headwinds in fiscal 2026, with a 3% decline in organic sales; however, the company reaffirmed its full-year guidance, reflecting its commitment to realigning its brand portfolio, while offering a historically high dividend yield of 7% for aggressive investors.
- Hormel Foods' Turnaround: Hormel Foods has seen over a year of organic growth, signaling that management's turnaround efforts are gaining traction, despite ongoing earnings pressure; with a dividend yield of 5.4%, the company aligns well with current consumer trends favoring protein intake, presenting a solid long-term investment opportunity.
See More
Coca-Cola Thrives in Challenging Market Conditions
- Coca-Cola's Strong Performance: In 2025, Coca-Cola's case volume grew by 1% and organic sales increased by 5%, while in Q1 2026, case volume rose by 3% and organic sales jumped 10%, demonstrating the company's robust performance in a challenging market, attracting conservative investors.
- General Mills' Investment Year Challenges: General Mills is navigating an investment year in fiscal 2026, facing industry-wide and company-specific headwinds, with organic sales down 3%, gross margin lower by 2 percentage points, and adjusted earnings down 25%, yet the company reaffirmed its full-year guidance, indicating stability in its long-term strategy, appealing to aggressive investors.
- Hormel Foods' Turnaround Signs: Hormel Foods, after years of restructuring, is showing early signs of success with organic growth rising for over a year, despite ongoing earnings pressure, and its 5.4% high dividend yield is attracting long-term investors looking for stability.
- Overall Industry Pressures: Food manufacturers are grappling with the impact of GLP-1 weight-loss drugs on eating habits, consumer spending cuts due to high costs and recession fears, and the burden of high oil and fertilizer prices, which may squeeze profit margins in the coming quarters, contributing to a bearish sentiment among investors towards food stocks.
See More
