UBS Adjusts Target Price for BUD APAC (01876.HK) to HKD8.6, Anticipates Slower Recovery in China Sales
Revenue and EBITDA Forecasts: BUD APAC is projected to experience a year-over-year decline in revenue and normalized EBITDA for 2025, with estimates of USD5.764 billion and USD1.588 billion, respectively, which is below market expectations.
Market Recovery Expectations: UBS Global Research anticipates a slowdown in sales recovery in the Chinese market, potentially delaying improvements until the second half of 2026, despite raising revenue forecasts for 2026-28 by 2-3% due to expected RMB appreciation.
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Citi Maintains CHINA RES BEER as Preferred Choice with Buy Rating and Target Price of HKD38
Goodwill Impairment Loss: CHINA RES BEER announced a significant goodwill impairment loss of RMB2.79-2.97 billion for its white liquor business, far exceeding expectations of RMB300 million.
Profit Forecast: Citi estimates that CHINA RES BEER's core net profit for 2025 will reach RMB5.1-5.3 billion, which is 0-6% higher than their previous forecast, considering a one-time land sale gain.
Stock Performance Expectations: Following the announcement of the impairment provision, Citi anticipates a positive stock price reaction for CHINA RES BEER, similar to MENGNIU DAIRY's previous performance.
Investment Rating: CHINA RES BEER maintains a Buy rating from Citi, with a target price of HKD38, and is ranked as a top pick in the Chinese consumer sector, ahead of competitors like BUD APAC and TSINGTAO BREW.
<UOB Kay Hian's Consumer Ratings and Target Prices (Table)>
Stock Performance Overview: Various Hong Kong stocks showed mixed performance, with notable gains for ANTA SPORTS (+2.365%) and HAIDILAO (+5.822%), while LI NING (-1.875%) and SANDS CHINA LTD (-1.271%) experienced declines.
Short Selling Data: Short selling activity varied across stocks, with LI NING having the highest ratio at 23.224%, while TSINGTAO BREW reported the lowest at 1.075%.
Investment Ratings: Most stocks listed received a "Buy" rating, except for LI NING, which is rated as "Hold," indicating a generally positive outlook for the majority of the stocks.
Market Insights: Citi's estimate for Macau's February gross gaming revenue (GGR) is projected at MOP20 billion, reflecting a 1% year-over-year increase, suggesting a stable gaming market.
M Stanley Reduces Earnings Projections for BUD APAC (01876.HK) for 2026/2027; Maintains Overweight Rating and $9 Price Target
Morgan Stanley's Earnings Forecasts: Morgan Stanley has lowered its earnings forecasts for BUD APAC for 2026 and 2027 by 12% and 14%, respectively, while introducing a 2028 EPS forecast of US$0.06.
Impact of Household Drinking Channels: The broker adjusted its average selling price forecasts for 2026-2027 down by 2-3% due to an increased proportion of household drinking channels in China.
Target Price and Rating: Despite the lowered forecasts, Morgan Stanley maintained its Overweight rating on BUD APAC and kept the target price at $9.
Short Selling Data: As of February 13, 2026, BUD APAC has a short selling amount of $57.35M with a ratio of 36.830%.
HSBC Research Lowers BUD APAC (01876.HK) Price Target to $8.3, Maintains Hold Rating
Stock Performance: BUD APAC (01876.HK) experienced a slight decline of 0.756%, with short selling amounting to $57.35M and a ratio of 36.830%.
Earnings Forecast: HSBC Global Research reported that BUD APAC's 2025 normalized EBITDA was 1% below expectations, while maintaining a consistent dividend policy with an expected yield of 4.8% for 2026.
Growth Strategy: The company aims to reignite growth in the Chinese market, explore opportunities in South Korea, and sustain momentum in India for 2026.
Brokerage Update: CICC has maintained an "Outperform" rating on BUD APAC but reduced its target price from $8.4 to $8.3, citing concerns over sales exposure to the catering channel amid demand recovery pressures.
UBS Adjusts Target Price for BUD APAC (01876.HK) to HKD8.6, Anticipates Slower Recovery in China Sales
Revenue and EBITDA Forecasts: BUD APAC is projected to experience a year-over-year decline in revenue and normalized EBITDA for 2025, with estimates of USD5.764 billion and USD1.588 billion, respectively, which is below market expectations.
Market Recovery Expectations: UBS Global Research anticipates a slowdown in sales recovery in the Chinese market, potentially delaying improvements until the second half of 2026, despite raising revenue forecasts for 2026-28 by 2-3% due to expected RMB appreciation.
G Sachs Predicts BUD APAC (01876.HK) Will Achieve Revenue Growth in China This Year, Maintains Buy Rating
Sales Performance: BUD APAC experienced a year-over-year decline of 6.1% in organic sales and 9.8% in EBITDA for 2025, primarily due to a downturn in the China market, where sales volume fell by 8.6%.
Market Stabilization: Signs of stabilization in the China market are emerging, with a narrowing decline in sales volume to 3.9% in Q4 2025.
Future Outlook: For 2026, BUD APAC anticipates slight challenges from commodity price costs but expects the China market to return to positive revenue growth, with stable average selling prices and a projected 2% increase in sales volume.
Analyst Rating: Goldman Sachs maintains a "Buy" rating for BUD APAC with a target price of $8.4, despite the recent declines in sales and EBITDA.
Citi Maintains CHINA RES BEER as Preferred Choice with Buy Rating and Target Price of HKD38
Goodwill Impairment Loss: CHINA RES BEER announced a significant goodwill impairment loss of RMB2.79-2.97 billion for its white liquor business, far exceeding expectations of RMB300 million.
Profit Forecast: Citi estimates that CHINA RES BEER's core net profit for 2025 will reach RMB5.1-5.3 billion, which is 0-6% higher than their previous forecast, considering a one-time land sale gain.
Stock Performance Expectations: Following the announcement of the impairment provision, Citi anticipates a positive stock price reaction for CHINA RES BEER, similar to MENGNIU DAIRY's previous performance.
Investment Rating: CHINA RES BEER maintains a Buy rating from Citi, with a target price of HKD38, and is ranked as a top pick in the Chinese consumer sector, ahead of competitors like BUD APAC and TSINGTAO BREW.
<UOB Kay Hian's Consumer Ratings and Target Prices (Table)>
Stock Performance Overview: Various Hong Kong stocks showed mixed performance, with notable gains for ANTA SPORTS (+2.365%) and HAIDILAO (+5.822%), while LI NING (-1.875%) and SANDS CHINA LTD (-1.271%) experienced declines.
Short Selling Data: Short selling activity varied across stocks, with LI NING having the highest ratio at 23.224%, while TSINGTAO BREW reported the lowest at 1.075%.
Investment Ratings: Most stocks listed received a "Buy" rating, except for LI NING, which is rated as "Hold," indicating a generally positive outlook for the majority of the stocks.
Market Insights: Citi's estimate for Macau's February gross gaming revenue (GGR) is projected at MOP20 billion, reflecting a 1% year-over-year increase, suggesting a stable gaming market.
M Stanley Reduces Earnings Projections for BUD APAC (01876.HK) for 2026/2027; Maintains Overweight Rating and $9 Price Target
Morgan Stanley's Earnings Forecasts: Morgan Stanley has lowered its earnings forecasts for BUD APAC for 2026 and 2027 by 12% and 14%, respectively, while introducing a 2028 EPS forecast of US$0.06.
Impact of Household Drinking Channels: The broker adjusted its average selling price forecasts for 2026-2027 down by 2-3% due to an increased proportion of household drinking channels in China.
Target Price and Rating: Despite the lowered forecasts, Morgan Stanley maintained its Overweight rating on BUD APAC and kept the target price at $9.
Short Selling Data: As of February 13, 2026, BUD APAC has a short selling amount of $57.35M with a ratio of 36.830%.
HSBC Research Lowers BUD APAC (01876.HK) Price Target to $8.3, Maintains Hold Rating
Stock Performance: BUD APAC (01876.HK) experienced a slight decline of 0.756%, with short selling amounting to $57.35M and a ratio of 36.830%.
Earnings Forecast: HSBC Global Research reported that BUD APAC's 2025 normalized EBITDA was 1% below expectations, while maintaining a consistent dividend policy with an expected yield of 4.8% for 2026.
Growth Strategy: The company aims to reignite growth in the Chinese market, explore opportunities in South Korea, and sustain momentum in India for 2026.
Brokerage Update: CICC has maintained an "Outperform" rating on BUD APAC but reduced its target price from $8.4 to $8.3, citing concerns over sales exposure to the catering channel amid demand recovery pressures.
UBS Adjusts Target Price for BUD APAC (01876.HK) to HKD8.6, Anticipates Slower Recovery in China Sales
Revenue and EBITDA Forecasts: BUD APAC is projected to experience a year-over-year decline in revenue and normalized EBITDA for 2025, with estimates of USD5.764 billion and USD1.588 billion, respectively, which is below market expectations.
Market Recovery Expectations: UBS Global Research anticipates a slowdown in sales recovery in the Chinese market, potentially delaying improvements until the second half of 2026, despite raising revenue forecasts for 2026-28 by 2-3% due to expected RMB appreciation.
G Sachs Predicts BUD APAC (01876.HK) Will Achieve Revenue Growth in China This Year, Maintains Buy Rating
Sales Performance: BUD APAC experienced a year-over-year decline of 6.1% in organic sales and 9.8% in EBITDA for 2025, primarily due to a downturn in the China market, where sales volume fell by 8.6%.
Market Stabilization: Signs of stabilization in the China market are emerging, with a narrowing decline in sales volume to 3.9% in Q4 2025.
Future Outlook: For 2026, BUD APAC anticipates slight challenges from commodity price costs but expects the China market to return to positive revenue growth, with stable average selling prices and a projected 2% increase in sales volume.
Analyst Rating: Goldman Sachs maintains a "Buy" rating for BUD APAC with a target price of $8.4, despite the recent declines in sales and EBITDA.
