The Trade Desk Faces 84% Stock Crash Amid Eroding Growth
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: May 22 2026
0mins
Source: Fool
- Stock Crash: The Trade Desk's stock has plummeted 84% since its peak in 2024, indicating a significant erosion of its competitive advantages in the adtech sector, leading to declining investor confidence and heightened concerns about its future prospects.
- Slowing Revenue Growth: The company's revenue growth rate fell to 12% in the first quarter, down from over 20% pre-pandemic, while adjusted earnings per share dropped from $0.33 to $0.28, missing the $0.32 estimate, reflecting a persistent decline in profitability.
- Intensifying Market Competition: Amid a booming digital ad market, The Trade Desk faces fierce competition from Meta, Alphabet, and Amazon, all of which reported substantial ad revenue growth, resulting in a loss of market share for The Trade Desk.
- Frequent Executive Changes: The company has replaced two CFOs in less than six months and is currently led by an interim CFO, a situation that typically signals internal management issues and exacerbates market unease regarding its future development.
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Analyst Views on TTD
Wall Street analysts forecast TTD stock price to rise
28 Analyst Rating
15 Buy
12 Hold
1 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 21.150
Low
38.00
Averages
53.33
High
85.00
Current: 21.150
Low
38.00
Averages
53.33
High
85.00
About TTD
The Trade Desk, Inc. is a global advertising technology company. The Company offers a self-service, cloud-based ad-buying platform that empowers its clients to plan, manage, optimize and measure more expressive data-driven digital advertising campaigns. Its platform allows clients to execute integrated campaigns across ad formats and channels, including connected television (CTV) and other video, display, audio, and native, on a multitude of devices, such as televisions, streaming devices, mobile devices, computers and digital-out-of-home devices. Its platform’s integrations with inventory, publisher and data partners provide ad buyers reach and decisioning capabilities, and its enterprise application programming interfaces (APIs) enable its clients to customize and expand platform functionality. Its platform provides auto-optimization features that allow buyers to automate their campaigns and support them with computer-generated modeling and decision-making.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
The Trade Desk Faces Growth Challenges Amid Competition
- Performance Stability: In Q1 2026, The Trade Desk reported a 12% year-over-year revenue increase to $689 million, slightly exceeding management's guidance of $678 million, indicating that advertisers still rely on the platform despite competitive pressures.
- Customer Retention: Adjusted EBITDA decreased slightly from $208 million last year to $206 million, yet customer retention remains above 95%, showcasing the company's stability in managing client relationships.
- Growth Slowdown: The current slowdown in growth, down from 25% a year ago, raises investor concerns about future valuations, particularly in an increasingly competitive landscape.
- AI Platform Priority: The Trade Desk must demonstrate that its AI platform, Kokai, can consistently enhance advertiser performance to navigate intensifying market competition while maintaining strong access to premium connected TV inventory.
See More
US Stocks Close Higher, Nasdaq Hits All-Time High
- Market Recovery: The S&P 500 rose by 0.58% and the Nasdaq 100 climbed 0.84%, reaching all-time highs, reflecting market optimism following the US-Iran ceasefire agreement, which may promote economic stability.
- Economic Data Impact: The US April core PCE price index increased by 3.3% year-on-year, meeting expectations, but the unexpected 1.1% decline in April capital goods orders indicates economic recovery fragility, potentially influencing the Fed's monetary policy decisions.
- Rising Unemployment Claims: Initial jobless claims in the US rose by 5,000 to 215,000, exceeding expectations, reflecting weakness in the labor market, which may heighten investor concerns about the economic outlook.
- Earnings Season Insights: As of Thursday, 83% of the 482 S&P 500 companies reported earnings above estimates, with Q1 earnings projected to grow by 12% year-on-year, demonstrating corporate resilience despite a slowdown in the tech sector.
See More
The Trade Desk Faces Pressure from AI Competition and Analyst Downgrade
- Stock Decline: The Trade Desk's shares fell 5.1% on Thursday to $21.18, reflecting investor concerns about the company's future amid increasing competition in the programmatic advertising space.
- Market Share Threat: The Trade Desk faces significant pressure as major digital advertising giants offer programmatic buying services at little to no cost, making its current 20% take rate particularly vulnerable in a competitive landscape.
- Analyst Downgrade: Analyst Bianca Dallal from Rothschild & Co Redburn initiated coverage with a 'Sell' rating and a price target of $11, suggesting a potential decline of over 50% from the previous closing price, which has heightened market anxiety.
- Slowing Growth: The Trade Desk's revenue growth slowed to 12% last quarter, down from 25% a year earlier, while adjusted EBITDA margins compressed from 34% to 30%, indicating increasing pricing pressure and raising concerns about future growth prospects.
See More
Wall Street Analyst Downgrades Trade Desk Rating
- Rating Downgrade: Analyst Bianca Dallal at Rothschild & Co Redburn has initiated coverage of The Trade Desk with a 'Sell' rating and a price target of $11, which is over 50% below yesterday's closing price, indicating a pessimistic outlook for the company's future performance.
- Increased Competitive Pressure: The emergence of low-cost AI media-buying tools from major tech companies is intensifying competitive pressures on The Trade Desk, which may further compress its current take rate of approximately 20%, impacting profitability.
- Weak Financial Performance: The Trade Desk's revenue growth slowed to 12% last quarter, significantly down from 25% in the same quarter last year, while adjusted EBITDA margins decreased from 34% to 30%, highlighting evident pricing pressures that raise investor concerns.
- Reasonable Valuation: Despite facing growth and pricing headwinds, The Trade Desk appears reasonably priced at 20 times next year's earnings estimates, with over $1.4 billion in cash and no debt, indicating a solid financial position.
See More
Analyst Warns TTD Faces Competitive Pressure
- Increased Competitive Pressure: Analyst Bianca Dallal highlighted that competition from media-driven AI advertising tools is exerting pressure on The Trade Desk's take rate, currently around 20%, posing significant market challenges for the company.
- Divergent Analyst Ratings: Among the 37 analysts covering The Trade Desk, 14 rate it a 'Buy,' 20 recommend 'Hold,' and 3 maintain a 'Sell' rating, indicating varied market perspectives on the company's future performance.
- Notable Stock Decline: Shares of The Trade Desk slid more than 4% on Thursday, and the stock is on track for its sixth monthly decline in the past seven months, reflecting investor concerns over the company's long-term growth outlook.
- Earnings Expectations Downgraded: Although TTD's first-quarter revenue exceeded Wall Street expectations, the company reported weaker net margins and earnings per share below analyst estimates, indicating a slowdown in growth amid economic uncertainties.
See More
The Trade Desk Faces Growth Slowdown Challenges
- Stable Customer Retention: Despite intensifying competition, The Trade Desk maintained a customer retention rate above 95% in Q1 2026, indicating ongoing appeal to advertisers; however, this stability does not offset the impact of slowing growth.
- Revenue Growth Slowdown: In Q1 2026, The Trade Desk's revenue grew 12% year-over-year to $689 million, slightly exceeding management's guidance of at least $678 million, but significantly down from last year's 25% growth rate, reflecting increased market competition and changing advertising spending patterns.
- Critical Role of AI Platform Kokai: The Trade Desk must demonstrate that its AI platform Kokai can consistently enhance advertiser performance, as the growing importance of AI in digital advertising means advertisers will increasingly favor platforms that deliver the best measurable results, which is crucial for The Trade Desk's future.
- Market Uncertainty Ahead: Although The Trade Desk operates in a growing market and continues to invest heavily in AI and connected TV, the forecasted revenue growth could slow further to just 8% next quarter, suggesting the company may face additional pressure before stabilizing growth.
See More
The Trade Desk Faces Growth Challenges Amid Competition
- Performance Stability: In Q1 2026, The Trade Desk reported a 12% year-over-year revenue increase to $689 million, slightly exceeding management's guidance of $678 million, indicating that advertisers still rely on the platform despite competitive pressures.
- Customer Retention: Adjusted EBITDA decreased slightly from $208 million last year to $206 million, yet customer retention remains above 95%, showcasing the company's stability in managing client relationships.
- Growth Slowdown: The current slowdown in growth, down from 25% a year ago, raises investor concerns about future valuations, particularly in an increasingly competitive landscape.
- AI Platform Priority: The Trade Desk must demonstrate that its AI platform, Kokai, can consistently enhance advertiser performance to navigate intensifying market competition while maintaining strong access to premium connected TV inventory.
See More
US Stocks Close Higher, Nasdaq Hits All-Time High
- Market Recovery: The S&P 500 rose by 0.58% and the Nasdaq 100 climbed 0.84%, reaching all-time highs, reflecting market optimism following the US-Iran ceasefire agreement, which may promote economic stability.
- Economic Data Impact: The US April core PCE price index increased by 3.3% year-on-year, meeting expectations, but the unexpected 1.1% decline in April capital goods orders indicates economic recovery fragility, potentially influencing the Fed's monetary policy decisions.
- Rising Unemployment Claims: Initial jobless claims in the US rose by 5,000 to 215,000, exceeding expectations, reflecting weakness in the labor market, which may heighten investor concerns about the economic outlook.
- Earnings Season Insights: As of Thursday, 83% of the 482 S&P 500 companies reported earnings above estimates, with Q1 earnings projected to grow by 12% year-on-year, demonstrating corporate resilience despite a slowdown in the tech sector.
See More
The Trade Desk Faces Pressure from AI Competition and Analyst Downgrade
- Stock Decline: The Trade Desk's shares fell 5.1% on Thursday to $21.18, reflecting investor concerns about the company's future amid increasing competition in the programmatic advertising space.
- Market Share Threat: The Trade Desk faces significant pressure as major digital advertising giants offer programmatic buying services at little to no cost, making its current 20% take rate particularly vulnerable in a competitive landscape.
- Analyst Downgrade: Analyst Bianca Dallal from Rothschild & Co Redburn initiated coverage with a 'Sell' rating and a price target of $11, suggesting a potential decline of over 50% from the previous closing price, which has heightened market anxiety.
- Slowing Growth: The Trade Desk's revenue growth slowed to 12% last quarter, down from 25% a year earlier, while adjusted EBITDA margins compressed from 34% to 30%, indicating increasing pricing pressure and raising concerns about future growth prospects.
See More
Wall Street Analyst Downgrades Trade Desk Rating
- Rating Downgrade: Analyst Bianca Dallal at Rothschild & Co Redburn has initiated coverage of The Trade Desk with a 'Sell' rating and a price target of $11, which is over 50% below yesterday's closing price, indicating a pessimistic outlook for the company's future performance.
- Increased Competitive Pressure: The emergence of low-cost AI media-buying tools from major tech companies is intensifying competitive pressures on The Trade Desk, which may further compress its current take rate of approximately 20%, impacting profitability.
- Weak Financial Performance: The Trade Desk's revenue growth slowed to 12% last quarter, significantly down from 25% in the same quarter last year, while adjusted EBITDA margins decreased from 34% to 30%, highlighting evident pricing pressures that raise investor concerns.
- Reasonable Valuation: Despite facing growth and pricing headwinds, The Trade Desk appears reasonably priced at 20 times next year's earnings estimates, with over $1.4 billion in cash and no debt, indicating a solid financial position.
See More
Analyst Warns TTD Faces Competitive Pressure
- Increased Competitive Pressure: Analyst Bianca Dallal highlighted that competition from media-driven AI advertising tools is exerting pressure on The Trade Desk's take rate, currently around 20%, posing significant market challenges for the company.
- Divergent Analyst Ratings: Among the 37 analysts covering The Trade Desk, 14 rate it a 'Buy,' 20 recommend 'Hold,' and 3 maintain a 'Sell' rating, indicating varied market perspectives on the company's future performance.
- Notable Stock Decline: Shares of The Trade Desk slid more than 4% on Thursday, and the stock is on track for its sixth monthly decline in the past seven months, reflecting investor concerns over the company's long-term growth outlook.
- Earnings Expectations Downgraded: Although TTD's first-quarter revenue exceeded Wall Street expectations, the company reported weaker net margins and earnings per share below analyst estimates, indicating a slowdown in growth amid economic uncertainties.
See More
The Trade Desk Faces Growth Slowdown Challenges
- Stable Customer Retention: Despite intensifying competition, The Trade Desk maintained a customer retention rate above 95% in Q1 2026, indicating ongoing appeal to advertisers; however, this stability does not offset the impact of slowing growth.
- Revenue Growth Slowdown: In Q1 2026, The Trade Desk's revenue grew 12% year-over-year to $689 million, slightly exceeding management's guidance of at least $678 million, but significantly down from last year's 25% growth rate, reflecting increased market competition and changing advertising spending patterns.
- Critical Role of AI Platform Kokai: The Trade Desk must demonstrate that its AI platform Kokai can consistently enhance advertiser performance, as the growing importance of AI in digital advertising means advertisers will increasingly favor platforms that deliver the best measurable results, which is crucial for The Trade Desk's future.
- Market Uncertainty Ahead: Although The Trade Desk operates in a growing market and continues to invest heavily in AI and connected TV, the forecasted revenue growth could slow further to just 8% next quarter, suggesting the company may face additional pressure before stabilizing growth.
See More
