The Market Everyone Gave Up On Is Crushing Nasdaq 100 In 2025
Greece's Economic Recovery: After a severe financial collapse in 2010, Greece has transformed into the world's best-performing equity market in 2025, with significant growth in the Athens Stock Exchange and Greek banks, driven by fiscal discipline and structural reforms.
Future Growth Potential: Despite the current rally, Greek stocks remain undervalued, with major Wall Street firms predicting continued growth in the banking sector, supported by improving financial metrics and favorable economic conditions.
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Jones Act Overview: The Merchant Marine Act of 1920, commonly known as the Jones Act, mandates that domestic shipping between U.S. ports must be conducted using ships that are American-built, owned, and crewed.
Temporary Waivers Consideration: The Trump administration is reportedly planning to issue temporary waivers for the Jones Act to allow foreign tankers to supply fuel to East Coast refiners amid rising crude oil prices due to the Iran war.
Current Oil Prices and Market Impact: Crude oil prices have surged past $100 per barrel, with U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures experiencing significant increases, reflecting market volatility influenced by geopolitical tensions.
Iran's Stance on Strait of Hormuz: Iran's new Supreme Leader has stated that the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed, warning that U.S. bases in the region will be attacked if they are not shut down, escalating regional tensions.

Goldman Sachs Economic Forecast: Goldman Sachs has revised its forecast for the December 2026 Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) index to 2.9%, up from a previous estimate of 2.1%, amid rising crude oil prices and ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
Impact of Iranian Attacks: The firm attributes the increase in crude oil prices to disruptions caused by Iranian attacks on oil tankers, which have heightened economic risks, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical oil shipping route.
GDP Growth and Recession Risks: Goldman Sachs expects U.S. GDP growth for Q4 to be 2.2%, down from 2.5%, and warns of a 25% risk of recession over the next year, exacerbated by the escalating Iran conflict.
Inflation Projections: The firm anticipates inflation to worsen due to the Iran war, predicting a core PCE inflation rate of 2.4%, influenced by rising oil prices, which could also impact GDP growth negatively.

Iran's Stance on Regional Relations: Iran's Supreme Leader, Khamenei, expressed willingness to maintain warm relations with neighboring countries while urging them to clarify their positions regarding perceived aggressors, specifically the U.S.
Threats Against U.S. Bases: Khamenei warned that Iran would continue to attack U.S. bases in the region unless they are shut down, emphasizing that these actions would not target the neighboring countries.
Trump's Comments on Oil Prices: Former President Donald Trump stated that rising crude oil prices benefit the U.S. financially, highlighting the country's status as the largest oil producer and emphasizing the importance of preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons.
Market Reactions: U.S. crude futures saw significant increases, with West Texas Intermediate rising over 11% and Brent crude futures surging more than 10%, while U.S. equities experienced declines in trading.

Iran's Stance on Strait of Hormuz: Iran's leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, emphasizes the importance of keeping the Strait of Hormuz closed as a means to exert pressure on adversaries.
Strategic Importance: The Strait of Hormuz is a critical waterway for global oil shipments, making its control a significant strategic asset for Iran.

Oil Prices Surge: Oil prices approached $100 following reports of attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz, while Bitcoin saw a 1.6% increase, maintaining a value above $70,000.
Market Trends: Traditional markets, including the Nasdaq 100 and gold prices, experienced slight declines amid a broader cryptocurrency market gain of 1.2%, with Dogecoin and Solana leading the gains.
Bitcoin's Performance: Bitcoin has outperformed gold and the Nasdaq 100 since the onset of the U.S.-Iran conflict, with analysts noting its relative strength compared to traditional safe-haven assets.
Retail Sentiment: Retail sentiment in the stock market has shifted to a bearish territory, while Bitcoin's price remains stable, indicating a neutral sentiment in the cryptocurrency market despite recent fluctuations.

U.S. Navy Readiness: U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright stated that the Navy is not yet prepared to escort oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz due to a focus on countering Iran's offensive capabilities.
Oil Prices Surge: Crude oil prices have recently surged past $100 per barrel, with West Texas Intermediate futures rising nearly 10% and Brent crude futures increasing over 10% before settling around $98 per barrel.
Market Reactions: The U.S. Oil Fund ETF and ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil ETF saw an increase of about 5% at the time of reporting, reflecting the rising oil prices.
Ongoing Developments: The situation is evolving, and updates can be followed directly on Stocktwits for the latest information regarding oil market dynamics and geopolitical tensions.



