Steel Stocks Decline Following Commerce's $2.9B CORE Imports Decision
U.S. Steel Industry Response: Major U.S. steel companies saw their share prices decline despite the Department of Commerce's announcement of anti-dumping and countervailing duty rates on imported corrosion-resistant steel from 10 countries.
Tariff Details: The proposed AD/CVD rates range from 17% to 110% on approximately $2.9 billion worth of imports, aimed at addressing unfair pricing practices by foreign competitors.
Government Stance: Under Secretary of Commerce William Kimmitt emphasized the Trump administration's commitment to enforcing trade laws to ensure fair competition for American steel companies and workers.
Market Reaction: The lack of significant impact on steel stocks suggests that the market had already anticipated the announcement, with some companies experiencing slight increases while others fell by about 1%.
Trade with 70% Backtested Accuracy
Analyst Views on MT
About MT
About the author

- Share Increase: Impala Asset Management disclosed a purchase of 168,805 shares of Century Aluminum in Q4 2026, valued at approximately $5.27 million, indicating strong confidence in the company's market position.
- Stake Proportion Rise: Following the purchase, Impala's stake in Century Aluminum reached 21.17%, making it the fund's largest single investment, reflecting a bullish outlook on the aluminum sector amidst current market volatility.
- Strong Financial Performance: Century Aluminum's latest earnings report revealed net sales of $632.2 million and adjusted EBITDA of $101.1 million, significantly up from the previous quarter, showcasing improvements in aluminum pricing and operational leverage.
- Outstanding Market Performance: As of February 12, 2026, Century Aluminum's stock price stood at $49.70, up 146.5% over the past year, greatly outperforming the S&P 500, highlighting its competitive edge and investment appeal in the industry.
- Significant Losses: Cleveland-Cliffs reported a net loss of $1.4 billion for 2025, nearly double the loss from 2024, reflecting dual pressures from weak automotive market demand and declining steel prices, which has left investors concerned about future prospects.
- Contract Termination Impact: The company ended a five-year steel slab contract with ArcelorMittal USA in 2025 due to unprofitability driven by tariff-induced price gaps, a decision that will affect future revenue streams significantly.
- Executive Sell-off Triggers Panic: CEO Lourenco Goncalves sold three million shares at an average price of $12.42 on February 11, and while executive sales may be for tax planning, the magnitude of the sale during a stock slump has unsettled investors.
- Optimistic Future Outlook: Despite current challenges, management anticipates a strong recovery in 2026, with automotive volumes rebounding and rising steel prices expected to drive revenue growth, particularly with hot-rolled oil-steel prices projected to be nearly $60 per ton higher sequentially.
- Massive Loss: Cleveland-Cliffs reported a staggering $1.4 billion net loss for 2025, nearly double the loss from 2024, highlighting the company's vulnerability under the dual pressures of weak automotive demand and declining steel prices.
- Stock Price Plunge: Following the disappointing earnings report, Cleveland-Cliffs' stock plummeted 32.5% at its lowest point this week, severely undermining investor confidence, particularly after CEO Lourenco Goncalves sold three million shares, which intensified market jitters.
- Recovery Expectations: Despite the poor performance in 2025, management anticipates a strong recovery in 2026, driven by rebounding automotive volumes and rising steel prices, with hot-rolled oil-steel prices expected to be nearly $60 per ton higher sequentially in the first quarter.
- Policy Benefits: Cleveland-Cliffs' Canadian subsidiary Stelco is poised to benefit from the Canadian government's restrictions on steel imports starting December 2025, which will help improve its market conditions and enhance profitability.
- Stock Surge: ArcelorMittal (MT) rose 4.9% in Wednesday's trading, reaching its highest level in nearly 15 years, reflecting market optimism regarding its future performance, particularly in light of the improving outlook for the European steel industry.
- Rating Upgrade: Jefferies upgraded ArcelorMittal's rating from Hold to Buy, raising the price target from €44 to €52, indicating analysts' confidence in the company's market performance driven by favorable policy changes.
- Import Tariff Changes: By July 2026, the EU is expected to reduce import tariff rate quotas by 50% and double tariffs on out-of-quota volumes to 50%, which could lead to a reduction of 10 million tons in EU steel imports, benefiting ArcelorMittal as the largest steel producer in the region.
- Capacity Recovery Plan: ArcelorMittal stated it can quickly bring idle capacity back online without significant capital expenditures, expecting to add 1 million tons of electric arc furnace production in 2026 and further solidifying its market share by re-rolling imported slabs from Brazil.
- Major Investment Plan: ArcelorMittal is investing €1.3 billion in an electric arc furnace in Dunkirk, France, expected to start production by 2029, which will produce steel with three times lower CO2 emissions compared to traditional methods, highlighting the company's commitment to sustainability.
- Electrical Steel Production Expansion: Additionally, the company is investing €500 million in a new electrical steel production unit in Dunkirk, further diversifying its product offerings in Europe and enhancing its competitive position in the market.
- Positive Market Reaction: The stock is currently trading at $63.08, 15.4% above its 20-day simple moving average and has surged 120.77% over the past 12 months, indicating strong short-term momentum that has attracted investor interest.
- Optimistic Analyst Ratings: ArcelorMittal's stock carries a 'Buy' rating with an average price target of $38.56; despite a current P/E ratio of 15.1x, analysts are optimistic about its growth prospects, suggesting that the current valuation is justified.
- Investment in Low-Emission Technology: ArcelorMittal plans to invest €1.3 billion in constructing a low-emission electric arc furnace at its Dunkirk steel plant, with operations expected to commence in 2029, marking a significant advancement in the company's decarbonization efforts.
- Capacity and Environmental Benefits: The new electric arc furnace will have an annual production capacity of 2 million metric tons of steel, with emissions per ton being three times lower than those from Dunkirk's blast furnaces, significantly enhancing the company's environmental profile and market competitiveness.
- Funding Support Mechanism: The project will be supported by Energy Efficiency Certificates, which are expected to cover half of the total investment, alleviating financial pressure on the company while promoting the achievement of sustainability goals.
- Optimized Policy Environment: The CEO of ArcelorMittal stated that the new tariff-rate quota will help curb unfair imports, while the implementation of the CBAM will create a more level playing field for European producers, further solidifying the company's market position.










