Stablecoins Pose Structural Threat to Visa and Mastercard, Warns Bill Gurley
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Jun 12 2026
0mins
Source: seekingalpha
- Threat from Stablecoins: Bill Gurley warns that stablecoins could pose a structural threat to Visa and Mastercard, indicating that traditional payment giants face disruptive challenges rather than just margin pressures.
- Transaction Fee Issues: Gurley highlights that modern technology can facilitate instant transfers at minimal costs, yet U.S. consumers still incur 2%-2.5% credit card transaction fees, reflecting inefficiencies in the payment system.
- Regulatory Capture: He argues that banks' interests in Visa and Mastercard have hindered the adoption of alternatives like FedNow, turning payment fees into a result of regulatory capture rather than economic necessity.
- Market Potential: Gurley believes stablecoins like USD Coin (USDC) can transfer funds in seconds for pennies while offering around 4% yield, potentially causing significant disruption to traditional payment networks.
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Analyst Views on MA
Wall Street analysts forecast MA stock price to rise
28 Analyst Rating
25 Buy
3 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 492.990
Low
500.00
Averages
660.00
High
739.00
Current: 492.990
Low
500.00
Averages
660.00
High
739.00
About MA
Mastercard Incorporated is a technology company in the global payments industry. The Company connects consumers, financial institutions, merchants, governments, digital partners, businesses and other organizations worldwide by enabling electronic payments and making those payment transactions secure and accessible. It provides a range of payment solutions and services using its brands, including Mastercard, Maestro and Cirrus. It operates a payments network that provides choice and flexibility for consumers, merchants and its customers. Through its proprietary global payments network, it switches (authorizes, clears and settles) payment transactions. Its additional payments capabilities include automated clearing house (ACH) transactions (both batch and real-time account-based payments). It offers security solutions, consumer acquisition and engagement, business and market insights, gateway, processing and open banking, among other services and solutions.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Visa and Mastercard's Strategic Move into Stablecoins
- Surging Payment Volume: In Q1 2026, Visa and Mastercard processed a staggering $7.1 trillion in payment volume, underscoring their dominance in the global payments landscape, even as they face competition from stablecoins.
- Stablecoin Market Potential: The current market value of dollar-linked stablecoins stands at $303 billion, with Tether and USDC holding 61% and 25% market shares respectively, prompting Visa and Mastercard to plan their own stablecoin platforms to maintain competitiveness.
- Strategic Acquisitions and Partnerships: Visa and Mastercard have acquired stablecoin infrastructure companies Bridge and BVNK for $1.1 billion and $1.8 billion respectively, indicating their strategic positioning and investment in the stablecoin sector.
- Network Effects Advantage: With their robust network effects connecting consumers, merchants, and financial institutions, Visa and Mastercard are better positioned to promote stablecoin adoption, while USDT and USDC face challenges in everyday transactional settings.
See More
Visa and Mastercard Plan Joint Stablecoin Platform
- Market Share Competition: Visa and Mastercard are reportedly in talks with Stripe to launch a joint stablecoin platform, aiming to counter the 86% market share held by USDT and USDC in the $303 billion stablecoin market, thereby enhancing their competitive edge in payments.
- Surge in Payment Volume: In the first quarter of 2026, Visa and Mastercard processed a staggering $7.1 trillion in payment volume, underscoring their dominance in the global payments landscape, with the stablecoin initiative potentially boosting their market share and profits further.
- Technological Investments: Stripe acquired stablecoin infrastructure firm Bridge for $1.1 billion in 2025, while Mastercard purchased BVNK for $1.8 billion, indicating strategic moves to establish a foothold in the stablecoin sector.
- Improved Regulatory Environment: The passage of the Genius Act in July 2025 has bolstered Visa and Mastercard's confidence to operate in the stablecoin space, allowing them to leverage their network effects more effectively to drive adoption and increase market share.
See More
Yen Rises on Policy Signals Amidst Economic Challenges
- Yen Exchange Rate Volatility: Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda's hints at a near-term rate hike have not prevented the yen from languishing around the 160 level, indicating limited policy effectiveness and potential market confidence issues.
- Cost of FX Intervention: Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama has deployed over 11.7 trillion yen ($72.8 billion) to support the yen, yet the market's muted response suggests that the intervention measures have limited short-term impact.
- Structural Factors at Play: Despite the BOJ raising rates to a three-decade high, U.S. Treasury yields remain high at 4.451%, making carry trades attractive and exacerbating downward pressure on the yen.
- Political Factors Interfering: The Japanese government's preference for easy monetary policy to stimulate growth limits capital inflows, and the dovish stance of newly appointed BOJ board members may influence future monetary policy directions.
See More
Overview of This Week's Dividend Activities
- Dividend Increases: HEICO announced an increase in its dividend from $0.12 to $0.13 per share, representing an 8.3% rise, indicating ongoing profitability and boosting investor confidence.
- New Dividend Declarations: Mastercard (MA) declared a dividend of $0.87 per share, HP at $0.30, and Dell (DELL) at $0.63, reflecting these companies' commitment to stable cash flow and shareholder returns.
- Upcoming Dividends: Broadcom (AVGO) and FedEx (FDX) have ex-dividend dates set for June 22, with payout dates on June 30 and July 7 respectively, highlighting continued market interest and investor anticipation for these firms.
- ETF Investment Opportunities: Investors can explore various dividend-focused ETFs such as VIG and SCHD, which provide diversified options for those seeking stable income, thereby broadening the revenue sources of their investment portfolios.
See More
Analysis of Visa and Mastercard's Profit Models
- Strong Profitability: Over the past five years, Visa's average quarterly net income margin reached 51.2%, while Mastercard's was slightly lower at 45.4%, demonstrating both companies' robust earnings generation capabilities that further solidify their market dominance.
- Cost Advantage in Transactions: The operational model of Visa and Mastercard allows for virtually zero marginal cost per transaction, with Visa achieving an operating margin of 64.4% in Q2 of fiscal 2026 and Mastercard at 58.4%, indicating high profit margins under fixed cost coverage.
- Abundant Free Cash Flow: Combined, the two companies generated $5.2 billion in free cash flow during Q1 2023, enabling substantial returns to shareholders through dividends and stock buybacks, which enhances investor confidence.
- Beneficiaries of Economic Growth: Visa and Mastercard benefit from economic growth and the trend towards cashless transactions, particularly in emerging markets where digital payment penetration has significant room for improvement, expected to drive future revenue growth.
See More
Analysis of Visa and Mastercard's Profit Models
- Strong Profitability: Visa and Mastercard reported quarterly net income margins of 51.2% and 45.4%, respectively, indicating robust profitability in payment processing, with expectations for continued double-digit earnings growth that will further solidify their market leadership.
- Excellent Cash Flow: The two companies generated a combined $5.2 billion in free cash flow in Q1 2023, enabling substantial returns to shareholders through dividends and stock buybacks, which enhances investor confidence and increases shareholder value.
- Significant Market Penetration Potential: While 83% of U.S. consumers used cash at least once in the past 30 days, there remains considerable room for digital payment penetration in emerging markets, providing Visa and Mastercard with ongoing growth opportunities as cash transactions decline.
- Inflation Resilience: In an environment of rising inflation, both Visa and Mastercard reported over 20% year-over-year revenue growth in late 2021 and early 2022, demonstrating their resilience during economic fluctuations and positioning them to benefit from economic growth and increased consumer spending.
See More
Visa and Mastercard's Strategic Move into Stablecoins
- Surging Payment Volume: In Q1 2026, Visa and Mastercard processed a staggering $7.1 trillion in payment volume, underscoring their dominance in the global payments landscape, even as they face competition from stablecoins.
- Stablecoin Market Potential: The current market value of dollar-linked stablecoins stands at $303 billion, with Tether and USDC holding 61% and 25% market shares respectively, prompting Visa and Mastercard to plan their own stablecoin platforms to maintain competitiveness.
- Strategic Acquisitions and Partnerships: Visa and Mastercard have acquired stablecoin infrastructure companies Bridge and BVNK for $1.1 billion and $1.8 billion respectively, indicating their strategic positioning and investment in the stablecoin sector.
- Network Effects Advantage: With their robust network effects connecting consumers, merchants, and financial institutions, Visa and Mastercard are better positioned to promote stablecoin adoption, while USDT and USDC face challenges in everyday transactional settings.
See More
Visa and Mastercard Plan Joint Stablecoin Platform
- Market Share Competition: Visa and Mastercard are reportedly in talks with Stripe to launch a joint stablecoin platform, aiming to counter the 86% market share held by USDT and USDC in the $303 billion stablecoin market, thereby enhancing their competitive edge in payments.
- Surge in Payment Volume: In the first quarter of 2026, Visa and Mastercard processed a staggering $7.1 trillion in payment volume, underscoring their dominance in the global payments landscape, with the stablecoin initiative potentially boosting their market share and profits further.
- Technological Investments: Stripe acquired stablecoin infrastructure firm Bridge for $1.1 billion in 2025, while Mastercard purchased BVNK for $1.8 billion, indicating strategic moves to establish a foothold in the stablecoin sector.
- Improved Regulatory Environment: The passage of the Genius Act in July 2025 has bolstered Visa and Mastercard's confidence to operate in the stablecoin space, allowing them to leverage their network effects more effectively to drive adoption and increase market share.
See More
Yen Rises on Policy Signals Amidst Economic Challenges
- Yen Exchange Rate Volatility: Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda's hints at a near-term rate hike have not prevented the yen from languishing around the 160 level, indicating limited policy effectiveness and potential market confidence issues.
- Cost of FX Intervention: Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama has deployed over 11.7 trillion yen ($72.8 billion) to support the yen, yet the market's muted response suggests that the intervention measures have limited short-term impact.
- Structural Factors at Play: Despite the BOJ raising rates to a three-decade high, U.S. Treasury yields remain high at 4.451%, making carry trades attractive and exacerbating downward pressure on the yen.
- Political Factors Interfering: The Japanese government's preference for easy monetary policy to stimulate growth limits capital inflows, and the dovish stance of newly appointed BOJ board members may influence future monetary policy directions.
See More
Overview of This Week's Dividend Activities
- Dividend Increases: HEICO announced an increase in its dividend from $0.12 to $0.13 per share, representing an 8.3% rise, indicating ongoing profitability and boosting investor confidence.
- New Dividend Declarations: Mastercard (MA) declared a dividend of $0.87 per share, HP at $0.30, and Dell (DELL) at $0.63, reflecting these companies' commitment to stable cash flow and shareholder returns.
- Upcoming Dividends: Broadcom (AVGO) and FedEx (FDX) have ex-dividend dates set for June 22, with payout dates on June 30 and July 7 respectively, highlighting continued market interest and investor anticipation for these firms.
- ETF Investment Opportunities: Investors can explore various dividend-focused ETFs such as VIG and SCHD, which provide diversified options for those seeking stable income, thereby broadening the revenue sources of their investment portfolios.
See More
Analysis of Visa and Mastercard's Profit Models
- Strong Profitability: Over the past five years, Visa's average quarterly net income margin reached 51.2%, while Mastercard's was slightly lower at 45.4%, demonstrating both companies' robust earnings generation capabilities that further solidify their market dominance.
- Cost Advantage in Transactions: The operational model of Visa and Mastercard allows for virtually zero marginal cost per transaction, with Visa achieving an operating margin of 64.4% in Q2 of fiscal 2026 and Mastercard at 58.4%, indicating high profit margins under fixed cost coverage.
- Abundant Free Cash Flow: Combined, the two companies generated $5.2 billion in free cash flow during Q1 2023, enabling substantial returns to shareholders through dividends and stock buybacks, which enhances investor confidence.
- Beneficiaries of Economic Growth: Visa and Mastercard benefit from economic growth and the trend towards cashless transactions, particularly in emerging markets where digital payment penetration has significant room for improvement, expected to drive future revenue growth.
See More
Analysis of Visa and Mastercard's Profit Models
- Strong Profitability: Visa and Mastercard reported quarterly net income margins of 51.2% and 45.4%, respectively, indicating robust profitability in payment processing, with expectations for continued double-digit earnings growth that will further solidify their market leadership.
- Excellent Cash Flow: The two companies generated a combined $5.2 billion in free cash flow in Q1 2023, enabling substantial returns to shareholders through dividends and stock buybacks, which enhances investor confidence and increases shareholder value.
- Significant Market Penetration Potential: While 83% of U.S. consumers used cash at least once in the past 30 days, there remains considerable room for digital payment penetration in emerging markets, providing Visa and Mastercard with ongoing growth opportunities as cash transactions decline.
- Inflation Resilience: In an environment of rising inflation, both Visa and Mastercard reported over 20% year-over-year revenue growth in late 2021 and early 2022, demonstrating their resilience during economic fluctuations and positioning them to benefit from economic growth and increased consumer spending.
See More
