SpaceX Aims for Historic $1.75 Trillion IPO
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 2 days ago
0mins
Source: NASDAQ.COM
- Record-Setting IPO: SpaceX is set to debut on June 12 with a target valuation of $1.75 trillion, aiming to surpass Saudi Aramco's $29.4 billion IPO record, although historical trends suggest that most mega-IPOs perform poorly, advising retail investors to be cautious.
- Nasdaq Rule Change: A new Nasdaq rule allows for rapid inclusion into the Nasdaq-100 index within 15 trading days post-IPO, potentially leading to a significant stock price surge on July 7, with estimated inflows of $22 billion to $27 billion from index funds.
- Overvaluation Risks: SpaceX's price-to-sales ratio is nearly 94, significantly higher than the historical range of 30 to 45 for hot IPOs, indicating potential overvaluation, compounded by substantial operating losses and a capital-intensive business model.
- Historical Performance Warning: Since the late 1990s, many large IPOs have stumbled post-debut, with examples like Facebook and Saudi Aramco showing that retail investors often incur losses, suggesting caution regarding SpaceX's upcoming IPO.
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Analyst Views on NDAQ
Wall Street analysts forecast NDAQ stock price to rise
10 Analyst Rating
9 Buy
1 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 91.000
Low
101.00
Averages
111.50
High
123.00
Current: 91.000
Low
101.00
Averages
111.50
High
123.00
About NDAQ
Nasdaq, Inc. is a global technology company serving corporate clients, investment managers, banks, brokers, and exchange operators as they navigate and interact with the global capital markets and the broader financial system. The Company manages, operates and provides its products and services in three business segments: Capital Access Platforms, Financial Technology and Market Services. Its Capital Access Platforms segment comprises Data & Listing Services, Index and Workflow & Insights. The Financial Technology segment comprises Financial Crime Management Technology, Regulatory Technology and Capital Markets Technology businesses. Its Market Services segment includes its equity derivative trading and clearing, cash equity trading, fixed income, currency and commodities trading. It operates over 19 exchanges across several asset classes, including derivatives, commodities, cash equity, debt, structured products and exchange-traded products (ETPs).
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Hedgeye Launches New ETF to Capture Index Fund Buying Opportunities
- ETF Launch Context: Hedgeye Asset Management has rolled out a new exchange-traded fund (ETF) designed to profit from forced buying by index funds and asset managers, particularly during adjustments to major market benchmarks like the S&P 500 index.
- Market Timing: The ETF (ADDS.P) debuted just two weeks ahead of Elon Musk's SpaceX anticipated initial public offering (IPO), which could value the company at $1.75 trillion and potentially shake up the composition of market indexes.
- Nasdaq Rule Changes: Prior to SpaceX's public announcement, Nasdaq announced an overhaul of its listing rules to ensure that newly public mega-cap IPOs do not face lengthy waiting periods before joining the Nasdaq 100 index, thereby accelerating their market entry.
- Innovative Investment Strategy: Hedgeye plans to hold up to 40 publicly traded companies whose stocks meet index inclusion criteria and sell them on the first trading day after they are added to a target index, aiming to provide broader access to a market phenomenon historically dominated by a small subset of investors.
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SpaceX Prepares for Historic IPO Amid Market Buzz
- IPO Timeline: SpaceX is set to debut on Nasdaq on June 12, aiming to become the largest IPO in history with a target valuation of $1.75 trillion, showcasing the company's strong potential in AI and the space economy.
- Market Rule Change: Nasdaq's new rule allows companies to enter the Nasdaq-100 index after just 15 trading days post-IPO, which could lead to a surge in SpaceX's stock value on July 7, potentially adding $200 billion to $270 billion in market capitalization.
- Investor Caution: Despite the excitement surrounding SpaceX's IPO, historical trends indicate that many mega-IPOs perform poorly in their early days, advising retail investors to be cautious and avoid chasing hot stocks.
- Valuation Risks: SpaceX's price-to-sales ratio is nearly 94, significantly higher than the typical range of 30 to 45 for industry peers, and coupled with substantial operating losses and a capital-intensive model, this could diminish its post-IPO appeal.
See More
SpaceX Aims for Historic $1.75 Trillion IPO
- Record-Setting IPO: SpaceX is set to debut on June 12 with a target valuation of $1.75 trillion, aiming to surpass Saudi Aramco's $29.4 billion IPO record, although historical trends suggest that most mega-IPOs perform poorly, advising retail investors to be cautious.
- Nasdaq Rule Change: A new Nasdaq rule allows for rapid inclusion into the Nasdaq-100 index within 15 trading days post-IPO, potentially leading to a significant stock price surge on July 7, with estimated inflows of $22 billion to $27 billion from index funds.
- Overvaluation Risks: SpaceX's price-to-sales ratio is nearly 94, significantly higher than the historical range of 30 to 45 for hot IPOs, indicating potential overvaluation, compounded by substantial operating losses and a capital-intensive business model.
- Historical Performance Warning: Since the late 1990s, many large IPOs have stumbled post-debut, with examples like Facebook and Saudi Aramco showing that retail investors often incur losses, suggesting caution regarding SpaceX's upcoming IPO.
See More
SpaceX IPO Faces Valuation Scrutiny Ahead of Historic Launch
- Record IPO Size: SpaceX is set to debut on June 12, aiming to raise approximately $75 billion and achieve a valuation of $1.75 trillion, marking the largest IPO in history; however, its high valuation raises market concerns.
- Poor Financial Performance: SpaceX generated $18.67 billion in sales in 2025, but if valued at $1.75 trillion, it would have a price-to-sales ratio nearing 94, significantly exceeding sustainable industry levels, indicating a lack of growth potential.
- Competitive Pressure on xAI: SpaceX's AI subsidiary, xAI, is struggling against competitors like OpenAI, with first-quarter sales of $818 million reflecting only a 12.5% year-over-year growth, while rival Anthropic achieved triple-digit growth.
- Accounting Transparency Issues: SpaceX's financial statements exhibit accounting maneuvers, reporting $6.58 billion in adjusted EBITDA while recognizing a net loss of $4.94 billion, highlighting severe profitability concerns.
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Investor Excitement Grows Ahead of SpaceX's Record IPO
- Record-Breaking IPO: SpaceX is set to launch its IPO on June 12, aiming to raise approximately $75 billion with a valuation of $1.75 trillion; however, its projected price-to-sales ratio of nearly 94 raises concerns about long-term sustainability, potentially deterring investors.
- Weak Sales Growth: Despite xAI's total addressable market of $26.5 trillion, its first-quarter revenue of $818 million reflects only a 12.5% year-over-year increase, indicating significant growth challenges in the highly competitive AI sector, which could impact investor sentiment.
- Poor Financial Health: SpaceX reported a net loss of $5 billion in 2025, and while it claimed a positive adjusted EBITDA of $6.58 billion, the substantial $8.65 billion gap due to depreciation and stock-based compensation raises serious questions about its profitability, likely affecting investor confidence.
- Partnership Risks: The $1.25 billion monthly compute partnership with Anthropic, while beneficial in the short term, can be terminated with just 90 days' notice, introducing revenue uncertainty that could negatively impact the IPO's performance and investor outlook.
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SpaceX's IPO Valuation Reaches $1.75 Trillion
- Staggering Market Potential: SpaceX's S1 filing estimates its total addressable market (TAM) at $28.5 trillion, labeled as the largest actionable market in human history, which, if accurate, strongly supports its $1.75 trillion IPO valuation.
- Diverse Revenue Streams: Starlink, as SpaceX's cash cow, generated $11.4 billion in revenue last year, accounting for about 60% of total revenue, highlighting its significance in future operations, although management believes xAI may hold greater long-term value.
- Capital Expenditure Raises Eyebrows: The $12.7 billion in capital expenditures incurred by xAI post-merger has caught analysts' attention, indicating SpaceX's substantial investment in AI and its strategic positioning for future business.
- Investor Confidence Challenge: While SpaceX's TAM figure has sparked market excitement, skepticism about its realizability persists, akin to challenges faced by Tesla, suggesting that future investor assessments of SpaceX will hinge on perceptions of its primary business direction.
See More
Hedgeye Launches New ETF to Capture Index Fund Buying Opportunities
- ETF Launch Context: Hedgeye Asset Management has rolled out a new exchange-traded fund (ETF) designed to profit from forced buying by index funds and asset managers, particularly during adjustments to major market benchmarks like the S&P 500 index.
- Market Timing: The ETF (ADDS.P) debuted just two weeks ahead of Elon Musk's SpaceX anticipated initial public offering (IPO), which could value the company at $1.75 trillion and potentially shake up the composition of market indexes.
- Nasdaq Rule Changes: Prior to SpaceX's public announcement, Nasdaq announced an overhaul of its listing rules to ensure that newly public mega-cap IPOs do not face lengthy waiting periods before joining the Nasdaq 100 index, thereby accelerating their market entry.
- Innovative Investment Strategy: Hedgeye plans to hold up to 40 publicly traded companies whose stocks meet index inclusion criteria and sell them on the first trading day after they are added to a target index, aiming to provide broader access to a market phenomenon historically dominated by a small subset of investors.
See More
SpaceX Prepares for Historic IPO Amid Market Buzz
- IPO Timeline: SpaceX is set to debut on Nasdaq on June 12, aiming to become the largest IPO in history with a target valuation of $1.75 trillion, showcasing the company's strong potential in AI and the space economy.
- Market Rule Change: Nasdaq's new rule allows companies to enter the Nasdaq-100 index after just 15 trading days post-IPO, which could lead to a surge in SpaceX's stock value on July 7, potentially adding $200 billion to $270 billion in market capitalization.
- Investor Caution: Despite the excitement surrounding SpaceX's IPO, historical trends indicate that many mega-IPOs perform poorly in their early days, advising retail investors to be cautious and avoid chasing hot stocks.
- Valuation Risks: SpaceX's price-to-sales ratio is nearly 94, significantly higher than the typical range of 30 to 45 for industry peers, and coupled with substantial operating losses and a capital-intensive model, this could diminish its post-IPO appeal.
See More
SpaceX Aims for Historic $1.75 Trillion IPO
- Record-Setting IPO: SpaceX is set to debut on June 12 with a target valuation of $1.75 trillion, aiming to surpass Saudi Aramco's $29.4 billion IPO record, although historical trends suggest that most mega-IPOs perform poorly, advising retail investors to be cautious.
- Nasdaq Rule Change: A new Nasdaq rule allows for rapid inclusion into the Nasdaq-100 index within 15 trading days post-IPO, potentially leading to a significant stock price surge on July 7, with estimated inflows of $22 billion to $27 billion from index funds.
- Overvaluation Risks: SpaceX's price-to-sales ratio is nearly 94, significantly higher than the historical range of 30 to 45 for hot IPOs, indicating potential overvaluation, compounded by substantial operating losses and a capital-intensive business model.
- Historical Performance Warning: Since the late 1990s, many large IPOs have stumbled post-debut, with examples like Facebook and Saudi Aramco showing that retail investors often incur losses, suggesting caution regarding SpaceX's upcoming IPO.
See More
SpaceX IPO Faces Valuation Scrutiny Ahead of Historic Launch
- Record IPO Size: SpaceX is set to debut on June 12, aiming to raise approximately $75 billion and achieve a valuation of $1.75 trillion, marking the largest IPO in history; however, its high valuation raises market concerns.
- Poor Financial Performance: SpaceX generated $18.67 billion in sales in 2025, but if valued at $1.75 trillion, it would have a price-to-sales ratio nearing 94, significantly exceeding sustainable industry levels, indicating a lack of growth potential.
- Competitive Pressure on xAI: SpaceX's AI subsidiary, xAI, is struggling against competitors like OpenAI, with first-quarter sales of $818 million reflecting only a 12.5% year-over-year growth, while rival Anthropic achieved triple-digit growth.
- Accounting Transparency Issues: SpaceX's financial statements exhibit accounting maneuvers, reporting $6.58 billion in adjusted EBITDA while recognizing a net loss of $4.94 billion, highlighting severe profitability concerns.
See More
Investor Excitement Grows Ahead of SpaceX's Record IPO
- Record-Breaking IPO: SpaceX is set to launch its IPO on June 12, aiming to raise approximately $75 billion with a valuation of $1.75 trillion; however, its projected price-to-sales ratio of nearly 94 raises concerns about long-term sustainability, potentially deterring investors.
- Weak Sales Growth: Despite xAI's total addressable market of $26.5 trillion, its first-quarter revenue of $818 million reflects only a 12.5% year-over-year increase, indicating significant growth challenges in the highly competitive AI sector, which could impact investor sentiment.
- Poor Financial Health: SpaceX reported a net loss of $5 billion in 2025, and while it claimed a positive adjusted EBITDA of $6.58 billion, the substantial $8.65 billion gap due to depreciation and stock-based compensation raises serious questions about its profitability, likely affecting investor confidence.
- Partnership Risks: The $1.25 billion monthly compute partnership with Anthropic, while beneficial in the short term, can be terminated with just 90 days' notice, introducing revenue uncertainty that could negatively impact the IPO's performance and investor outlook.
See More
SpaceX's IPO Valuation Reaches $1.75 Trillion
- Staggering Market Potential: SpaceX's S1 filing estimates its total addressable market (TAM) at $28.5 trillion, labeled as the largest actionable market in human history, which, if accurate, strongly supports its $1.75 trillion IPO valuation.
- Diverse Revenue Streams: Starlink, as SpaceX's cash cow, generated $11.4 billion in revenue last year, accounting for about 60% of total revenue, highlighting its significance in future operations, although management believes xAI may hold greater long-term value.
- Capital Expenditure Raises Eyebrows: The $12.7 billion in capital expenditures incurred by xAI post-merger has caught analysts' attention, indicating SpaceX's substantial investment in AI and its strategic positioning for future business.
- Investor Confidence Challenge: While SpaceX's TAM figure has sparked market excitement, skepticism about its realizability persists, akin to challenges faced by Tesla, suggesting that future investor assessments of SpaceX will hinge on perceptions of its primary business direction.
See More
