Signs of Recovery in Spring Housing Market
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 4 days ago
0mins
Should l Buy ZG?
Source: CNBC
- Market Recovery Signs: In January 2025, nearly 45,000 homes that were delisted last year were relisted, marking the highest figure in a decade and representing 3.6% of the market, indicating a resurgence of seller confidence.
- Seller Behavior Shift: Close to 85,000 sellers delisted their homes in September 2024, a 28% increase from the previous year, reflecting how high mortgage rates and economic uncertainty have led sellers to temporarily withdraw from the market.
- Inventory Status: Nationally, the inventory of homes for sale has increased compared to last year, with active listings up 7.9% year-over-year in February; however, this growth has been shrinking for nine consecutive months, indicating a slowdown in supply momentum.
- Regional Supply-Demand Disparities: Supply improvements are concentrated in the South and West, particularly for homes priced below $500,000, while the Northeast and Midwest remain significantly undersupplied, highlighting ongoing imbalances in the market.
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Analyst Views on ZG
Wall Street analysts forecast ZG stock price to rise
17 Analyst Rating
9 Buy
7 Hold
1 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 45.140
Low
66.00
Averages
85.00
High
100.00
Current: 45.140
Low
66.00
Averages
85.00
High
100.00
About ZG
Zillow Group, Inc. helps people find and get the home they want by connecting them with digital solutions, dedicated partners and agents, and buying, selling, financing, and renting experiences. The Company’s affiliates, subsidiaries, and brands include Zillow, Zillow Premier Agent, Zillow Home Loans, Zillow Rentals, Trulia, Out East, StreetEasy, HotPads, ShowingTime+, Spruce, and Follow Up Boss. It helps renters, buyers, sellers, and real estate professionals across all their residential real estate needs through its housing super app, which serves as an ecosystem of connected solutions for the tasks and services related to moving. It provides integrated transaction experience for movers through Zillow, its network of partners, its affiliated brands, and through a comprehensive suite of marketing software and technology solutions for the real estate industry, including ShowingTime+, Follow Up Boss and Spruce. It offers multifamily property managers a variety of advertising products.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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FICO's Market Challenges: FICO, a major player in consumer credit scoring, has faced a 30% decline in its stock over the past year due to market pressures and regulatory changes, despite maintaining solid revenue growth.
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U.S. Housing Affordability Gradually Improves
- Increased Buying Power: According to Zillow, U.S. households with a median income of approximately $86,300 can now afford a home priced at $331,483, which is an increase of $30,302 from last year, allowing buyers to access better neighborhoods or larger homes.
- Interest Rate Impact: Although the average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage has risen from 5.99% to 6.14%, it remains lower than last year's 6.79%, and this gradual decline still enables buyers to save about $1,000 annually, enhancing their purchasing power.
- Income Requirement Changes: The NAR's affordability index indicates that buyers need an annual income of $94,032 to afford a median-priced single-family home at $400,300, which is a decrease from last year, reflecting slight market improvement but still below actual home prices.
- Market Supply and Demand: Despite a 6% increase in available homes, a broader housing shortage persists, and more potential buyers entering the market could drive prices up, as noted by NAR's chief economist, emphasizing the need for increased housing supply to prevent further price hikes.
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- Market Recovery Signal: According to Callum Thomas, 80% of the 70 companies tracked have stocks up at least 20% from their 52-week lows, a figure that has rarely exceeded 50% in the past decades, indicating strong signals of market recovery and potential investment opportunities for investors.
- Mortgage Rate Decline: The current 30-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 6%, down approximately 80 basis points from a year ago, providing greater affordability for homebuyers, especially as price growth slows, which may stimulate a recovery in the real estate market.
- Household Net Worth Growth: A report from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York indicates that home equity lines of credit (HELOCs) rose for the 15th consecutive quarter in Q4 2025, totaling $434 billion, a 36% increase over the past four years, reflecting improved household financial conditions and enhanced consumer spending capacity.
- Importance of Historical Data: Since 1928, the S&P 500 has lost more than 10% in only 12 calendar years, meaning the market has been profitable or lost less than 10% in nearly 88% of calendar years, emphasizing the significance of historical data in investment decisions to help investors grasp market trends.
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- US Stock Performance: Bloomberg illustrates that the year-to-date rally in US stocks is the broadest ever, with a record number of individual stocks in the S&P 500 outperforming the index, indicating a robust market recovery and increased investor confidence.
- Declining Mortgage Rates: The current 30-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 6%, down 80 basis points from a year ago, marking the lowest level since 2022, which may enhance homeownership affordability for buyers as home price growth slows.
- Growth in HELOCs: A report from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York reveals that the total amount in home equity lines of credit (HELOCs) rose to $434 billion in Q4 2025, a 36% increase over the past four years, reflecting sustained consumer confidence and demand for borrowing against home equity.
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- Stock Performance Surge: Following the buyback announcement, Z shares rose by 2.29% to $46.87, while ZG shares increased by 2.43% to $47.22, reflecting market optimism regarding the company's future prospects.
- Sufficient Buyback Capacity: Zillow currently has approximately $1.3 billion available for future share repurchases, indicating the company's flexibility in capital management and commitment to shareholder returns.
- Market Operation Strategy: Under the new authorization, Zillow plans to repurchase shares through open market transactions or privately negotiated deals, with management determining the appropriate strategy based on market conditions to optimize capital structure and enhance shareholder value.
See More
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- Market Recovery Signs: In January 2025, nearly 45,000 homes that were delisted last year were relisted, marking the highest figure in a decade and representing 3.6% of the market, indicating a resurgence of seller confidence.
- Seller Behavior Shift: Close to 85,000 sellers delisted their homes in September 2024, a 28% increase from the previous year, reflecting how high mortgage rates and economic uncertainty have led sellers to temporarily withdraw from the market.
- Inventory Status: Nationally, the inventory of homes for sale has increased compared to last year, with active listings up 7.9% year-over-year in February; however, this growth has been shrinking for nine consecutive months, indicating a slowdown in supply momentum.
- Regional Supply-Demand Disparities: Supply improvements are concentrated in the South and West, particularly for homes priced below $500,000, while the Northeast and Midwest remain significantly undersupplied, highlighting ongoing imbalances in the market.
See More
Three Stocks Indicating Confidence Through Significant Buybacks
Stock Buybacks Announced: Three leading companies have announced substantial buyback programs, with one energy firm planning to repurchase shares worth $10 billion, indicating strong confidence in their market positions.
Chenier Energy's Performance: Chenier Energy has seen its shares rise over 250% in the past five years, benefiting from strong demand for liquefied natural gas, and has recently increased its buyback capacity to $10.2 billion.
FICO's Market Challenges: FICO, a major player in consumer credit scoring, has faced a 30% decline in its stock over the past year due to market pressures and regulatory changes, despite maintaining solid revenue growth.
Zillow's Buyback Strategy: Zillow has significantly increased its buyback capacity to $1.3 billion, representing over 11% of its market capitalization, as it aims to capitalize on attractive pricing in the current market environment.
See More
U.S. Housing Affordability Gradually Improves
- Increased Buying Power: According to Zillow, U.S. households with a median income of approximately $86,300 can now afford a home priced at $331,483, which is an increase of $30,302 from last year, allowing buyers to access better neighborhoods or larger homes.
- Interest Rate Impact: Although the average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage has risen from 5.99% to 6.14%, it remains lower than last year's 6.79%, and this gradual decline still enables buyers to save about $1,000 annually, enhancing their purchasing power.
- Income Requirement Changes: The NAR's affordability index indicates that buyers need an annual income of $94,032 to afford a median-priced single-family home at $400,300, which is a decrease from last year, reflecting slight market improvement but still below actual home prices.
- Market Supply and Demand: Despite a 6% increase in available homes, a broader housing shortage persists, and more potential buyers entering the market could drive prices up, as noted by NAR's chief economist, emphasizing the need for increased housing supply to prevent further price hikes.
See More
Lessons from Market History and Future Outlook
- Market Recovery Signal: According to Callum Thomas, 80% of the 70 companies tracked have stocks up at least 20% from their 52-week lows, a figure that has rarely exceeded 50% in the past decades, indicating strong signals of market recovery and potential investment opportunities for investors.
- Mortgage Rate Decline: The current 30-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 6%, down approximately 80 basis points from a year ago, providing greater affordability for homebuyers, especially as price growth slows, which may stimulate a recovery in the real estate market.
- Household Net Worth Growth: A report from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York indicates that home equity lines of credit (HELOCs) rose for the 15th consecutive quarter in Q4 2025, totaling $434 billion, a 36% increase over the past four years, reflecting improved household financial conditions and enhanced consumer spending capacity.
- Importance of Historical Data: Since 1928, the S&P 500 has lost more than 10% in only 12 calendar years, meaning the market has been profitable or lost less than 10% in nearly 88% of calendar years, emphasizing the significance of historical data in investment decisions to help investors grasp market trends.
See More
Global Bull Market and Declining Mortgage Rates
- Global Bull Market: According to Callum Thomas of Topdown Charts, 80% of the 70 companies he tracks have seen stock markets rise at least 20% from their 52-week lows, a rare occurrence that typically signals a favorable environment for investors.
- US Stock Performance: Bloomberg illustrates that the year-to-date rally in US stocks is the broadest ever, with a record number of individual stocks in the S&P 500 outperforming the index, indicating a robust market recovery and increased investor confidence.
- Declining Mortgage Rates: The current 30-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 6%, down 80 basis points from a year ago, marking the lowest level since 2022, which may enhance homeownership affordability for buyers as home price growth slows.
- Growth in HELOCs: A report from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York reveals that the total amount in home equity lines of credit (HELOCs) rose to $434 billion in Q4 2025, a 36% increase over the past four years, reflecting sustained consumer confidence and demand for borrowing against home equity.
See More
Zillow Authorizes $1.25B Stock Buyback Program
- Buyback Program Expansion: Zillow Group's board has authorized an additional stock repurchase program of up to $1.25 billion, aimed at enhancing shareholder value and boosting market confidence, which is expected to positively impact the stock price.
- Stock Performance Surge: Following the buyback announcement, Z shares rose by 2.29% to $46.87, while ZG shares increased by 2.43% to $47.22, reflecting market optimism regarding the company's future prospects.
- Sufficient Buyback Capacity: Zillow currently has approximately $1.3 billion available for future share repurchases, indicating the company's flexibility in capital management and commitment to shareholder returns.
- Market Operation Strategy: Under the new authorization, Zillow plans to repurchase shares through open market transactions or privately negotiated deals, with management determining the appropriate strategy based on market conditions to optimize capital structure and enhance shareholder value.
See More
Signs of Recovery in Spring Housing Market
- Market Recovery Signs: In January 2025, nearly 45,000 homes that were delisted last year were relisted, marking the highest figure in a decade and representing 3.6% of the market, indicating a resurgence of seller confidence.
- Seller Behavior Shift: Close to 85,000 sellers delisted their homes in September 2024, a 28% increase from the previous year, reflecting how high mortgage rates and economic uncertainty have led sellers to temporarily withdraw from the market.
- Inventory Status: Nationally, the inventory of homes for sale has increased compared to last year, with active listings up 7.9% year-over-year in February; however, this growth has been shrinking for nine consecutive months, indicating a slowdown in supply momentum.
- Regional Supply-Demand Disparities: Supply improvements are concentrated in the South and West, particularly for homes priced below $500,000, while the Northeast and Midwest remain significantly undersupplied, highlighting ongoing imbalances in the market.
See More
