<Research>CLSA: China's Investigation into TRIP.COM-S May Not Benefit HWORLD-S or Atour
Antitrust Investigation Impact: China's State Administration for Market Regulation is investigating TRIP.COM-S, leading to significant short selling and concerns about its effects on the hotel industry, particularly chain hotels like HWORLD-S and Atour.
Potential Benefits for Hotels: There is speculation that reduced commission rates from online travel agencies (OTAs) could benefit hotels, but CLSA warns that the powerful network effects of OTAs may prevent a significant shift in booking volumes to hotel apps.
Revenue Implications: Hotels might lower room prices due to savings from OTAs, which could result in a decrease in revenue per available room (RevPAR), impacting overall earnings.
Market Outlook: CLSA predicts continued hotel openings in China, including independent hotels, but suggests that the growth trend in average RevPAR may be limited, favoring Atour over HWORLD-S due to differing sensitivities to RevPAR trends.
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G Sachs Anticipates HWORLD-S 4Q25 Revenue to Exceed Expectations, Remains Cautious on CTG Duty-Free
Goldman Sachs Ratings: Goldman Sachs reiterated a Buy rating for HWORLD-S, forecasting a 4Q25 revenue increase of 8% YoY and full-year revenue growth of 6%, with EBITDA expected to reach RMB8.4 billion.
Atour Lifestyle Holdings Outlook: The broker predicts a significant 57% YoY increase in Atour Lifestyle Holdings' 4Q25 EBITDA to RMB700 million, aligning with full-year estimates of RMB2.5 billion.
TONGCHENGTRAVEL Projections: Goldman Sachs anticipates TONGCHENGTRAVEL's 4Q25 revenue to grow by 13% YoY, driven by an 18% increase in its core OTA business, slightly outperforming TRIP.COM-S.
Cautious View on CTG DUTY-FREE: While maintaining a cautious stance on CTG DUTY-FREE due to uncertain sales momentum, Goldman Sachs projects a 20% YoY revenue increase for 4Q25, following previous declines.
<Research>BOCI Anticipates Hainan's Tourism Retail and Online Travel Platforms to Gain from China's Strong Tourism Performance
Tourism Growth: China's tourism saw a significant boost during the 2026 New Year holiday, with cross-border trips increasing by 28.6% year-over-year, indicating a trend towards experiential consumption that began in 2025.
Hainan's Retail Industry: BOCI predicts that Hainan's tourism retail sector will experience substantial short-term benefits, while China's online travel platforms are expected to thrive in the long term despite some regional challenges.
Stock Performance Outlook: BOCI maintains an optimistic outlook for TRIP.COM-S, setting a target price of HKD638, and highlights HWORLD-S and CTG DUTY-FREE as strong performers with target prices of HKD39.8 and HKD81, respectively.
Investment Recommendations: All mentioned stocks are rated as "Buy," reflecting confidence in their potential for growth, particularly in the context of increasing outbound travel convenience.
G Sachs Anticipates HWORLD-S 4Q25 Revenue to Exceed Expectations, Remains Cautious on CTG Duty-Free
Goldman Sachs Ratings: Goldman Sachs reiterated a Buy rating for HWORLD-S, forecasting a 4Q25 revenue increase of 8% YoY and full-year revenue growth of 6%, with EBITDA expected to reach RMB8.4 billion.
Atour Lifestyle Holdings Outlook: The broker predicts a significant 57% YoY increase in Atour Lifestyle Holdings' 4Q25 EBITDA to RMB700 million, aligning with full-year estimates of RMB2.5 billion.
TONGCHENGTRAVEL Projections: Goldman Sachs anticipates TONGCHENGTRAVEL's 4Q25 revenue to grow by 13% YoY, driven by an 18% increase in its core OTA business, slightly outperforming TRIP.COM-S.
Cautious View on CTG DUTY-FREE: While maintaining a cautious stance on CTG DUTY-FREE due to uncertain sales momentum, Goldman Sachs projects a 20% YoY revenue increase for 4Q25, following previous declines.
<Research>BOCI Anticipates Hainan's Tourism Retail and Online Travel Platforms to Gain from China's Strong Tourism Performance
Tourism Growth: China's tourism saw a significant boost during the 2026 New Year holiday, with cross-border trips increasing by 28.6% year-over-year, indicating a trend towards experiential consumption that began in 2025.
Hainan's Retail Industry: BOCI predicts that Hainan's tourism retail sector will experience substantial short-term benefits, while China's online travel platforms are expected to thrive in the long term despite some regional challenges.
Stock Performance Outlook: BOCI maintains an optimistic outlook for TRIP.COM-S, setting a target price of HKD638, and highlights HWORLD-S and CTG DUTY-FREE as strong performers with target prices of HKD39.8 and HKD81, respectively.
Investment Recommendations: All mentioned stocks are rated as "Buy," reflecting confidence in their potential for growth, particularly in the context of increasing outbound travel convenience.
