Reasons Behind Today's Decline in SPS Commerce Stock
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Oct 31 2025
0mins
Should l Buy SPSC?
Source: NASDAQ.COM
Earnings Report: SPS Commerce reported a 16% increase in sales and a 23% rise in adjusted earnings per share for the third quarter, but fell short of Wall Street's revenue expectations, leading to a 24% drop in share price.
Market Reaction: Despite solid operational performance, the market reacted negatively due to conservative sales guidance for 2026, estimating only 7% to 8% organic sales growth compared to an 18% growth rate over the past five years.
Company Position: SPS Commerce remains a leading player in cloud-based supply chain services, boasting 99 consecutive quarters of top-line growth and a strong market position, as highlighted by CEO Chad Collins.
Investment Consideration: The stock is currently trading near all-time low valuations, down 63% from its peak, prompting some analysts to consider it a buying opportunity, although it was not included in the Motley Fool's latest top stock recommendations.
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Analyst Views on SPSC
Wall Street analysts forecast SPSC stock price to rise
10 Analyst Rating
4 Buy
6 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 64.750
Low
80.00
Averages
99.13
High
110.00
Current: 64.750
Low
80.00
Averages
99.13
High
110.00
About SPSC
SPS Commerce, Inc. is a provider of retail supply chain cloud services, connecting trading partners around the globe to optimize supply chain operations for all retail partners. The Company supports data-driven partnerships with innovative cloud technology and customer-obsessed service that focuses on retail, grocery, distribution, supply, manufacturing, and logistics firms. The Company's products include Fulfillment, Analytics, and Other products. Fulfillment products offer a comprehensive solution designed to streamline supply chain operations. The Analytics products simplifies managing sell-through data from our customers business partners by handling data acquisition, cleansing, normalization, and delivery. Its Other products offer complementary products, such as assortment and community. In addition to these offerings, it also provides one-time services such as professional services and testing and certification.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
SPS Commerce Achieves 100th Consecutive Quarter of Revenue Growth
- Revenue Growth Milestone: SPS Commerce achieved $751.5 million in revenue for FY 2025, reflecting an 18% year-over-year increase, with recurring revenue growing by 20%, demonstrating the company's ability to drive efficient collaboration in a complex supply chain environment.
- Acquisition Strategy: The acquisition of Carbon6 in 2025 further solidifies SPS's leadership in revenue recovery solutions, with an addressable market projected at $750 million, presenting significant cross-selling opportunities within its network.
- AI Innovation Launch: SPS introduced its new AI capabilities, “MAX,” aimed at enhancing the competitiveness of its supply chain network, which is expected to deliver more meaningful and scalable enhancements across its product portfolio, driving future business growth.
- Shareholder Return Program: In 2025, the company deployed 76% of its free cash flow to repurchase $115 million in shares and received board approval for an additional $200 million in share repurchase authorization, totaling $300 million, reflecting a strong commitment to shareholder returns.
See More
SPS Commerce Q4 Earnings Beat Expectations, 2026 Outlook Positive
- Earnings Highlights: SPS Commerce reported a Q4 non-GAAP EPS of $1.14, beating expectations by $0.13, although revenue of $192.7 million, which grew 12.8% year-over-year, missed estimates by $0.9 million, indicating potential revenue challenges ahead.
- Q1 2026 Guidance: The company expects Q1 revenue to range between $191.6 million and $193.6 million, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 6% to 7%, with net income per diluted share projected between $0.46 and $0.49, showcasing confidence in future growth.
- Fiscal Year 2026 Outlook: Revenue for FY 2026 is anticipated to be between $798.5 million and $806.9 million, representing a 6% to 7% growth, while non-GAAP EPS is expected to range from $4.42 to $4.50, indicating sustained profitability.
- Expense Projections: Non-cash share-based compensation is expected to be $67.1 million, with depreciation and amortization expenses projected at $21.6 million and $38.3 million respectively, suggesting effective cost management strategies to enhance overall profitability.
See More
SPS Commerce Set to Announce Q4 Earnings
- Earnings Announcement: SPS Commerce is set to release its Q4 earnings on February 12 after market close, with a consensus EPS estimate of $1.01, reflecting a 13.5% year-over-year growth, indicating the company's ongoing potential for profitability.
- Revenue Expectations: Analysts project Q4 revenue to reach $193.6 million, up 13.3% year-over-year, demonstrating the company's ability to maintain stable revenue growth amid strong market demand.
- Performance Beat Record: Over the past two years, SPS Commerce has beaten EPS estimates 100% of the time and has surpassed revenue estimates 88% of the time, showcasing the company's consistency and reliability in financial performance.
- Estimate Revision Dynamics: Despite no upward revisions and one downward revision in EPS estimates over the past three months, this has not diminished market confidence in the company's future performance, potentially providing investors with a more attractive entry point.
See More
SPS Commerce Launches MAX AI Functionality for Supply Chain
- AI Functionality Innovation: SPS Commerce's MAX leverages 300,000 trading connections and decades of expertise to help customers unlock greater value from AI, which is expected to significantly enhance operational efficiency and decision-making capabilities in the supply chain.
- Real-Time Monitoring Capability: The MAX Monitor feature continuously monitors transactions and workflows, automating routine tasks and proactively providing critical insights, which is anticipated to save time and improve operational performance, thereby enhancing customer competitive advantage.
- Embedded Workflow Integration: The MAX Chat feature is embedded directly into daily operations, allowing customers more direct access to proprietary insights, helping teams resolve potential issues before they escalate, thus reducing the risk of rejected shipments.
- Multi-Party Collaboration Support: MAX Connect supports collaboration with other agents, aiming to maximize the impact of AI for retailers, suppliers, and logistics partners, driving the intelligence and efficiency of the supply chain network.
See More
Activist Investor Pushes for Sale of SPS Commerce
- Investor Engagement: Activist investor Irenic Capital Management has taken a stake in SPS Commerce (SPSC) and is urging the supply chain software maker to explore sale options, indicating a strong interest in the company's future direction.
- Management Interaction: According to a Bloomberg report, Irenic has engaged with SPS Commerce's board and management, suggesting a desire to drive strategic changes through proactive dialogue to enhance shareholder value.
- Stock Price Volatility: SPS Commerce shares fell 2% on Thursday, with a total decline of over 50% in the past year, reflecting market concerns about the company's current operational status and the context of activist involvement.
- Competitive Pressure: Prior to Irenic's involvement, another activist investor, Anson Funds Management, disclosed its stake in SPS and called for the ousting of the CEO, further intensifying pressure on the company's governance and strategic direction.
See More
TRAN Capital Management Fully Divests SPS Commerce Stake for $15.37 Million
- Complete Divestiture: TRAN Capital Management sold its entire stake of 147,591 shares in SPS Commerce during Q4 2026, with a transaction value of $15.37 million, indicating a potential loss of confidence in the stock's future performance, which may affect market perception.
- Position Change: The divestiture resulted in a net position change of $15.37 million for TRAN, reflecting a reassessment of market prospects, particularly as SPS's stock has fallen over 50% from its peak, suggesting caution among investors.
- Top Holdings Analysis: Following the sale of SPS, TRAN's top holdings include Nvidia ($60.95 million), Talen Energy ($59.99 million), and Amazon ($59.51 million), indicating a strategic shift towards technology and energy sectors, likely in pursuit of more stable returns.
- Market Performance: As of January 21, 2026, SPS Commerce shares were priced at $91.13, down 53% year-over-year, facing pressure in the competitive supply chain management sector, prompting investors to closely monitor its future sales growth and strategic direction.
See More
SPS Commerce Achieves 100th Consecutive Quarter of Revenue Growth
- Revenue Growth Milestone: SPS Commerce achieved $751.5 million in revenue for FY 2025, reflecting an 18% year-over-year increase, with recurring revenue growing by 20%, demonstrating the company's ability to drive efficient collaboration in a complex supply chain environment.
- Acquisition Strategy: The acquisition of Carbon6 in 2025 further solidifies SPS's leadership in revenue recovery solutions, with an addressable market projected at $750 million, presenting significant cross-selling opportunities within its network.
- AI Innovation Launch: SPS introduced its new AI capabilities, “MAX,” aimed at enhancing the competitiveness of its supply chain network, which is expected to deliver more meaningful and scalable enhancements across its product portfolio, driving future business growth.
- Shareholder Return Program: In 2025, the company deployed 76% of its free cash flow to repurchase $115 million in shares and received board approval for an additional $200 million in share repurchase authorization, totaling $300 million, reflecting a strong commitment to shareholder returns.
See More
SPS Commerce Q4 Earnings Beat Expectations, 2026 Outlook Positive
- Earnings Highlights: SPS Commerce reported a Q4 non-GAAP EPS of $1.14, beating expectations by $0.13, although revenue of $192.7 million, which grew 12.8% year-over-year, missed estimates by $0.9 million, indicating potential revenue challenges ahead.
- Q1 2026 Guidance: The company expects Q1 revenue to range between $191.6 million and $193.6 million, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 6% to 7%, with net income per diluted share projected between $0.46 and $0.49, showcasing confidence in future growth.
- Fiscal Year 2026 Outlook: Revenue for FY 2026 is anticipated to be between $798.5 million and $806.9 million, representing a 6% to 7% growth, while non-GAAP EPS is expected to range from $4.42 to $4.50, indicating sustained profitability.
- Expense Projections: Non-cash share-based compensation is expected to be $67.1 million, with depreciation and amortization expenses projected at $21.6 million and $38.3 million respectively, suggesting effective cost management strategies to enhance overall profitability.
See More
SPS Commerce Set to Announce Q4 Earnings
- Earnings Announcement: SPS Commerce is set to release its Q4 earnings on February 12 after market close, with a consensus EPS estimate of $1.01, reflecting a 13.5% year-over-year growth, indicating the company's ongoing potential for profitability.
- Revenue Expectations: Analysts project Q4 revenue to reach $193.6 million, up 13.3% year-over-year, demonstrating the company's ability to maintain stable revenue growth amid strong market demand.
- Performance Beat Record: Over the past two years, SPS Commerce has beaten EPS estimates 100% of the time and has surpassed revenue estimates 88% of the time, showcasing the company's consistency and reliability in financial performance.
- Estimate Revision Dynamics: Despite no upward revisions and one downward revision in EPS estimates over the past three months, this has not diminished market confidence in the company's future performance, potentially providing investors with a more attractive entry point.
See More
SPS Commerce Launches MAX AI Functionality for Supply Chain
- AI Functionality Innovation: SPS Commerce's MAX leverages 300,000 trading connections and decades of expertise to help customers unlock greater value from AI, which is expected to significantly enhance operational efficiency and decision-making capabilities in the supply chain.
- Real-Time Monitoring Capability: The MAX Monitor feature continuously monitors transactions and workflows, automating routine tasks and proactively providing critical insights, which is anticipated to save time and improve operational performance, thereby enhancing customer competitive advantage.
- Embedded Workflow Integration: The MAX Chat feature is embedded directly into daily operations, allowing customers more direct access to proprietary insights, helping teams resolve potential issues before they escalate, thus reducing the risk of rejected shipments.
- Multi-Party Collaboration Support: MAX Connect supports collaboration with other agents, aiming to maximize the impact of AI for retailers, suppliers, and logistics partners, driving the intelligence and efficiency of the supply chain network.
See More
Activist Investor Pushes for Sale of SPS Commerce
- Investor Engagement: Activist investor Irenic Capital Management has taken a stake in SPS Commerce (SPSC) and is urging the supply chain software maker to explore sale options, indicating a strong interest in the company's future direction.
- Management Interaction: According to a Bloomberg report, Irenic has engaged with SPS Commerce's board and management, suggesting a desire to drive strategic changes through proactive dialogue to enhance shareholder value.
- Stock Price Volatility: SPS Commerce shares fell 2% on Thursday, with a total decline of over 50% in the past year, reflecting market concerns about the company's current operational status and the context of activist involvement.
- Competitive Pressure: Prior to Irenic's involvement, another activist investor, Anson Funds Management, disclosed its stake in SPS and called for the ousting of the CEO, further intensifying pressure on the company's governance and strategic direction.
See More
TRAN Capital Management Fully Divests SPS Commerce Stake for $15.37 Million
- Complete Divestiture: TRAN Capital Management sold its entire stake of 147,591 shares in SPS Commerce during Q4 2026, with a transaction value of $15.37 million, indicating a potential loss of confidence in the stock's future performance, which may affect market perception.
- Position Change: The divestiture resulted in a net position change of $15.37 million for TRAN, reflecting a reassessment of market prospects, particularly as SPS's stock has fallen over 50% from its peak, suggesting caution among investors.
- Top Holdings Analysis: Following the sale of SPS, TRAN's top holdings include Nvidia ($60.95 million), Talen Energy ($59.99 million), and Amazon ($59.51 million), indicating a strategic shift towards technology and energy sectors, likely in pursuit of more stable returns.
- Market Performance: As of January 21, 2026, SPS Commerce shares were priced at $91.13, down 53% year-over-year, facing pressure in the competitive supply chain management sector, prompting investors to closely monitor its future sales growth and strategic direction.
See More
