Raymond James Initiates Underperform Rating on Itron Amid Concerns
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Apr 21 2026
0mins
Should l Buy ITRI?
Source: seekingalpha
- Rating Downgrade: Raymond James has initiated coverage of Itron with an Underperform rating, citing concerns that the company is experiencing an unsustainably high level of advanced metering deployments in 2024, which may lead to an underappreciated normalization period.
- Market Expectation Discrepancy: Advanced meter deployments in 2024 are approximately 30% above normal demand estimates, indicating that endpoint growth in 2025 may also be abnormally high, suggesting a subsequent normalization in volumes.
- Project Timing Uncertainty: The analyst notes that while market consensus assumes Itron has record backlogs, the timing of projects and changes in customer behavior may not be resolved immediately, potentially pushing the next up-cycle further away than anticipated.
- Lower Revenue Base: With the industry lapping replacements driven by the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act from about 15 years ago, the analyst warns that Itron's revenues may re-accelerate off a much lower base, impacting future growth potential.
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Analyst Views on ITRI
Wall Street analysts forecast ITRI stock price to rise
4 Analyst Rating
4 Buy
0 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 81.870
Low
125.00
Averages
134.50
High
145.00
Current: 81.870
Low
125.00
Averages
134.50
High
145.00
About ITRI
Itron, Inc. provides energy, water, smart city, Industrial Internet of Things (IIoT) and intelligent infrastructure services. The Company's Device Solutions segment primarily includes hardware products used for measurement, control, or sensing that can have communications capability embedded for use with its broader Itron systems, which is hardware-based products. Its Networked Solutions segment primarily includes a combination of communicating devices (smart meters, modules, endpoints, and sensors), network infrastructure, network design services, and associated head-end management and application software designed and sold as a complete solution for acquiring and transporting application-specific data. Its Outcomes segment includes its value-added, enhanced software and services, in which it enables grid edge intelligence and manage, organize, analyze, and interpret raw, anonymized data using artificial intelligence, machine learning, statistical modeling, and other analytics.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Industry-Leading Capital Returns: Tenet Healthcare boasts a 22.5% return on capital, showcasing management's skill in identifying high-return investments, with returns continuing to grow as the company capitalizes on improving market opportunities.
See More
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- Earnings Beat: Itron reported Q1 non-GAAP EPS of $1.49, exceeding Wall Street's estimate by $0.25, while sales of approximately $587 million, though down 3% year-over-year, still surpassed analyst expectations by $14.9 million, demonstrating resilience in challenging conditions.
- Sales Dynamics: Despite a 13% year-over-year decline in networked solutions sales, outcomes revenue rose 22% compared to the prior year, effectively mitigating the overall sales drop, indicating growth potential in specific areas.
- Market Reaction: Itron's stock initially fell 9.7% during the day but closed up 0.1%, reflecting a gradual recognition of the company's performance by investors, even as the broader market struggled with the S&P 500 down 0.5%.
- Cautious Guidance: Itron's guidance for sales between $560 million and $570 million falls short of the $607 million analyst estimate, with adjusted EPS projected between $1.25 and $1.35, suggesting potential valuation pressures ahead for the stock.
See More
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- Earnings Beat: Itron reported adjusted earnings per share of $1.49 for Q1, exceeding Wall Street's expectations by $0.25, demonstrating the company's resilience in profitability despite a 3% year-over-year sales decline.
- Sales Performance: The company achieved approximately $587 million in sales for the first quarter, surpassing analyst expectations by $14.9 million, with outcomes revenue increasing by 22% year-over-year, which helped mitigate the overall sales drop despite a 13% decline in networked solutions sales.
- Guidance Shortfall: Itron's sales guidance for the current quarter is projected between $560 million and $570 million, significantly below the analyst consensus of $607 million, raising concerns about the company's future growth and potentially putting pressure on its stock valuation.
- Stock Volatility: Itron's stock experienced a significant drop of 9.7% during the trading day but managed to close up 0.1%, reflecting a complex market reaction to the company's performance, as investors showed some confidence despite the weaker guidance.
See More
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- Strong Performance: Itron's Q1 revenue reached $587 million, with adjusted EBITDA of $92 million and non-GAAP EPS of $1.49, all exceeding market expectations, reflecting robust execution and enhancing investor confidence.
- Bookings and Backlog: The total bookings for Q1 amounted to $476 million, bringing the total backlog to $4.4 billion, indicating stable market demand, particularly with the growing share of Outcomes and Resiliency Solutions, which is expected to drive future revenue growth.
- Margin Improvement: The gross margin for Q1 improved by 450 basis points year-over-year to 40.7%, primarily due to a favorable product mix and operational efficiencies, which will support the company's future profitability.
- Outlook: Management anticipates Q2 revenue to be between $560 million and $570 million, and despite market volatility, they maintain an optimistic view on project deployments in the second half of the year, emphasizing sustained demand and a stable customer base.
See More
Itron's Q2 Outlook Falls Short of Expectations
- Strong Earnings Beat: Itron reported adjusted EPS of $1.49 for Q1 2026, exceeding the consensus estimate of $1.24, while GAAP EPS of $1.18 also surpassed the $1.10 expectation, indicating robust operational execution.
- Revenue Decline: The company's revenue of $587 million for the quarter, although beating the $572 million consensus, represented a 3% year-over-year decline, highlighting challenges in the market environment that could impact future growth.
- Dismal Future Guidance: Itron's revenue guidance for the ongoing quarter is projected between $560 million and $570 million, falling short of the $607 million consensus, with adjusted EPS expectations of $1.25 to $1.35 also below the $1.46 estimate, raising concerns about its future performance.
- Security Incident Impact: Following an unauthorized access incident, Itron has taken corrective actions and reported no further unauthorized activity, yet this event may affect investor confidence, despite the company asserting it will not have a material impact on operations.
See More
Itron Q1 Earnings Beat Expectations with Strategic Insights
- Earnings Performance: Itron reported a Q1 non-GAAP EPS of $1.49, exceeding expectations by $0.25, demonstrating resilience in profitability despite a decline in overall revenue.
- Revenue Decline Factors: Total revenue for the first quarter was $587 million, down 3.3% year-over-year, primarily driven by portfolio optimization and the timing of project deployments, reflecting the company's strategic response to market adjustments.
- Segment Performance Disparities: Device Solutions revenue decreased by 1%, while Networked Solutions revenue fell by 13%, indicating challenges in project deployments in the EMEA and North American markets that impacted overall performance.
- Cautious Outlook: Itron's revenue outlook for Q2 ranges between $560 million and $570 million, below the consensus of $606.97 million, indicating uncertainties the company may face in the coming months.
See More
