Private Credit Funds Face Market Pressures Amid AI Concerns
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: May 15 2026
0mins
Source: Newsfilter
- Credit Portfolio Write-Downs: A review of 14 major business development companies reveals widespread markdowns in private credit portfolios during Q1, with the aggregate fair-value-to-cost ratio dropping 103 basis points to 98.55%, indicating investments marked approximately $1.2 billion below amortized cost, highlighting investor concerns over credit quality.
- Pressure on Smaller Funds: MSCIdata indicates that over 10% of private credit loans have been marked down by at least 50%, a level typically associated with deep distress or restructuring risk, particularly in smaller private debt funds where 13% of loans are valued below 50 cents on the dollar, underscoring market stress.
- Declining Investment Trends: Blue Owl reported a 95% drop in new investments in its largest credit fund for retail investors, accepting only $26.4 million in subscriptions compared to $480 million last year, reflecting ongoing funding pressures faced by BDCs.
- Increased Regulatory Transparency: The UK's Financial Conduct Authority is discussing overhauling reporting requirements with major private credit groups to enhance transparency, with firms like Apollo, Blackstone, and KKR participating, some of which have agreed to voluntarily provide data to the Bank of England for a stress test of the global private equity and credit industries.
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Analyst Views on BXSL
Wall Street analysts forecast BXSL stock price to rise
7 Analyst Rating
4 Buy
3 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 23.530
Low
27.00
Averages
31.67
High
35.00
Current: 23.530
Low
27.00
Averages
31.67
High
35.00
About BXSL
Blackstone Secured Lending Fund is an externally managed, non-diversified, closed-end management investment company. The Company’s investment objectives are to generate current income and, to a lesser extent, long-term capital appreciation. It invests at least 80% of its total assets in secured debt investments. The Company seeks to achieve its investment objectives primarily through originated loans and other securities, including syndicated loans, of private U.S. companies, typically in the form of first lien senior secured and unitranche loans (including first out/last out loans), and to a lesser extent, second lien, third lien, unsecured and subordinated loans and other debt and equity securities. It invests across various sectors, which include aerospace and defense, air freight and logistics, building products, commercial services and supplies, healthcare providers and services and others. The Company is externally managed by Blackstone Credit BDC Advisors LLC.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Diverse Risk Premiums Assigned to U.S. Private Credit Firms
- Risk Premium Disparity: A Reuters analysis reveals that U.S. private credit firms are facing diverse risk premiums, with smaller lenders priced at greater risk, indicating a growing selectivity in a market under borrower stress.
- Spread Data: BCP Investment Corp recorded the highest weighted average option-adjusted spread (OAS) at 680 basis points, followed by Prospect Capital Corp at 449 bps, highlighting market concerns over varying credit quality among firms.
- Market Selectivity: The widening of spreads this year reflects investors' increasing differentiation of BDCs exposed to AI disruptions in SaaS companies, signaling a heightened focus on credit quality and funding risks.
- Rising Default Rates: Fitch Ratings reports that the default rate among U.S. private credit borrowers reached 6% over the past 12 months, the highest since August 2024, indicating a weakening backdrop for the private credit market.
See More
Private Credit Funds Face Market Pressures Amid AI Concerns
- Credit Portfolio Write-Downs: A review of 14 major business development companies reveals widespread markdowns in private credit portfolios during Q1, with the aggregate fair-value-to-cost ratio dropping 103 basis points to 98.55%, indicating investments marked approximately $1.2 billion below amortized cost, highlighting investor concerns over credit quality.
- Pressure on Smaller Funds: MSCIdata indicates that over 10% of private credit loans have been marked down by at least 50%, a level typically associated with deep distress or restructuring risk, particularly in smaller private debt funds where 13% of loans are valued below 50 cents on the dollar, underscoring market stress.
- Declining Investment Trends: Blue Owl reported a 95% drop in new investments in its largest credit fund for retail investors, accepting only $26.4 million in subscriptions compared to $480 million last year, reflecting ongoing funding pressures faced by BDCs.
- Increased Regulatory Transparency: The UK's Financial Conduct Authority is discussing overhauling reporting requirements with major private credit groups to enhance transparency, with firms like Apollo, Blackstone, and KKR participating, some of which have agreed to voluntarily provide data to the Bank of England for a stress test of the global private equity and credit industries.
See More
Private Credit Funds Mark Down Investment Values Significantly
- Investment Value Write-Down: Filings from 14 major business development companies reveal that private credit funds' fair value-to-cost ratio fell by 103 basis points to 98.55% in Q1, highlighting increased market pressures, particularly as AI disrupts small business models.
- Decline in Net Asset Values: BlackRock TCP Capital Corp's NAV dropped 4.95%, CION Investment Corp fell 4.72%, and Goldman Sachs BDC's NAV decreased by 3.72%, indicating a deteriorating overall market environment.
- Increased Market Scrutiny: Analysts and rating agencies warn that weaker borrowers, rising non-accruals, and redemption pressures are testing the rapidly expanding private credit market, with Moody's downgrading the BDC sector outlook to negative.
- Support Package Initiated: FS KKR Capital Corp plans a $300 million support package to address mounting losses and declining NAV, reflecting a cautious market sentiment towards private credit.
See More
HSBC Reports $400 Million Loss Linked to Fraud Case
- Unexpected Loss: HSBC shocked the market with a $400 million loss this week linked to a fraud case involving a British mortgage lender, highlighting the bank's deep involvement in the private credit sector.
- Regulatory Concerns: This loss has raised alarms among global regulators regarding banks' exposure to the $3.5 trillion private credit industry, with the Financial Stability Board (FSB) warning of increasing risks due to banks' expanding ties to this market.
- Shifting Financing Trends: As financing terms in the private credit market become less competitive, some U.S. borrowers are shifting towards bank-led syndicated loans, indicating a growing preference for traditional bank financing.
- Valuation Adjustments: Major asset managers like Blackstone and BlackRock have reduced the valuations of their private credit funds in Q1, with BlackRock cutting one fund's value by 5%, illustrating the impact of pressures in the software sector on private credit.
See More
Blackstone Secured Lending Declares Quarterly Dividend
- Quarterly Dividend Announcement: Blackstone Secured Lending (BXSL) declares a quarterly dividend of $0.77 per share, consistent with previous distributions, indicating stable cash flow and profitability, which is likely to attract more investor interest.
- High Yield: The forward yield of 12.64% not only provides substantial returns for shareholders but may also enhance market interest in BXSL, further strengthening its competitive position in the BDC sector.
- Shareholder Information: The dividend is payable on July 24, with a record date of June 30 and an ex-dividend date also on June 30, ensuring shareholders receive their earnings promptly, which boosts investor confidence.
- Financial Performance Highlights: The Blackstone Secured Lending Fund achieved an 11.8% return on equity (ROE) in Q1 2026, while also signaling $550 million in repayments and a $250 million buyback authorization, reflecting the company's strong financial health.
See More
BXSL Q1 2026 Earnings Transcript
See More
Diverse Risk Premiums Assigned to U.S. Private Credit Firms
- Risk Premium Disparity: A Reuters analysis reveals that U.S. private credit firms are facing diverse risk premiums, with smaller lenders priced at greater risk, indicating a growing selectivity in a market under borrower stress.
- Spread Data: BCP Investment Corp recorded the highest weighted average option-adjusted spread (OAS) at 680 basis points, followed by Prospect Capital Corp at 449 bps, highlighting market concerns over varying credit quality among firms.
- Market Selectivity: The widening of spreads this year reflects investors' increasing differentiation of BDCs exposed to AI disruptions in SaaS companies, signaling a heightened focus on credit quality and funding risks.
- Rising Default Rates: Fitch Ratings reports that the default rate among U.S. private credit borrowers reached 6% over the past 12 months, the highest since August 2024, indicating a weakening backdrop for the private credit market.
See More
Private Credit Funds Face Market Pressures Amid AI Concerns
- Credit Portfolio Write-Downs: A review of 14 major business development companies reveals widespread markdowns in private credit portfolios during Q1, with the aggregate fair-value-to-cost ratio dropping 103 basis points to 98.55%, indicating investments marked approximately $1.2 billion below amortized cost, highlighting investor concerns over credit quality.
- Pressure on Smaller Funds: MSCIdata indicates that over 10% of private credit loans have been marked down by at least 50%, a level typically associated with deep distress or restructuring risk, particularly in smaller private debt funds where 13% of loans are valued below 50 cents on the dollar, underscoring market stress.
- Declining Investment Trends: Blue Owl reported a 95% drop in new investments in its largest credit fund for retail investors, accepting only $26.4 million in subscriptions compared to $480 million last year, reflecting ongoing funding pressures faced by BDCs.
- Increased Regulatory Transparency: The UK's Financial Conduct Authority is discussing overhauling reporting requirements with major private credit groups to enhance transparency, with firms like Apollo, Blackstone, and KKR participating, some of which have agreed to voluntarily provide data to the Bank of England for a stress test of the global private equity and credit industries.
See More
Private Credit Funds Mark Down Investment Values Significantly
- Investment Value Write-Down: Filings from 14 major business development companies reveal that private credit funds' fair value-to-cost ratio fell by 103 basis points to 98.55% in Q1, highlighting increased market pressures, particularly as AI disrupts small business models.
- Decline in Net Asset Values: BlackRock TCP Capital Corp's NAV dropped 4.95%, CION Investment Corp fell 4.72%, and Goldman Sachs BDC's NAV decreased by 3.72%, indicating a deteriorating overall market environment.
- Increased Market Scrutiny: Analysts and rating agencies warn that weaker borrowers, rising non-accruals, and redemption pressures are testing the rapidly expanding private credit market, with Moody's downgrading the BDC sector outlook to negative.
- Support Package Initiated: FS KKR Capital Corp plans a $300 million support package to address mounting losses and declining NAV, reflecting a cautious market sentiment towards private credit.
See More
HSBC Reports $400 Million Loss Linked to Fraud Case
- Unexpected Loss: HSBC shocked the market with a $400 million loss this week linked to a fraud case involving a British mortgage lender, highlighting the bank's deep involvement in the private credit sector.
- Regulatory Concerns: This loss has raised alarms among global regulators regarding banks' exposure to the $3.5 trillion private credit industry, with the Financial Stability Board (FSB) warning of increasing risks due to banks' expanding ties to this market.
- Shifting Financing Trends: As financing terms in the private credit market become less competitive, some U.S. borrowers are shifting towards bank-led syndicated loans, indicating a growing preference for traditional bank financing.
- Valuation Adjustments: Major asset managers like Blackstone and BlackRock have reduced the valuations of their private credit funds in Q1, with BlackRock cutting one fund's value by 5%, illustrating the impact of pressures in the software sector on private credit.
See More
Blackstone Secured Lending Declares Quarterly Dividend
- Quarterly Dividend Announcement: Blackstone Secured Lending (BXSL) declares a quarterly dividend of $0.77 per share, consistent with previous distributions, indicating stable cash flow and profitability, which is likely to attract more investor interest.
- High Yield: The forward yield of 12.64% not only provides substantial returns for shareholders but may also enhance market interest in BXSL, further strengthening its competitive position in the BDC sector.
- Shareholder Information: The dividend is payable on July 24, with a record date of June 30 and an ex-dividend date also on June 30, ensuring shareholders receive their earnings promptly, which boosts investor confidence.
- Financial Performance Highlights: The Blackstone Secured Lending Fund achieved an 11.8% return on equity (ROE) in Q1 2026, while also signaling $550 million in repayments and a $250 million buyback authorization, reflecting the company's strong financial health.
See More
BXSL Q1 2026 Earnings Transcript
See More
