Nexstar's Stock Dips: Q2 Earnings Fall Short Amid Mixed Advertising Market
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Aug 08 2024
0mins
Should l Buy NXST?
Source: Benzinga
Financial Performance: Nexstar Media Group reported a 2.3% year-over-year increase in net revenue for Q2 FY24 to $1.269 billion, falling short of expectations. Advertising revenue rose by 2.2%, while distribution revenue increased by 5.5%. Adjusted EBITDA grew by 18.8%, but EPS was below consensus estimates.
Future Outlook: The company anticipates benefiting from record political spending on broadcast television in the latter half of the year, while also noting improvements in cash flows and ratings growth at The CW.
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Analyst Views on NXST
Wall Street analysts forecast NXST stock price to fall
4 Analyst Rating
3 Buy
1 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 247.750
Low
204.00
Averages
232.25
High
250.00
Current: 247.750
Low
204.00
Averages
232.25
High
250.00
About NXST
Nexstar Media Group, Inc. is a diversified media company with television broadcasting, television network and digital media assets operating in the United States. The Company produces and distributes engaging local and national news, sports and entertainment content across its television and digital platforms. The Company’s reportable broadcast segment includes television stations and related local websites that Nexstar owns, operates, programs or provides sales and other services to in various markets across the United States, NewsNation, a national cable news network, two owned and operated multicast networks and other multicast network services, and WGN-AM, a Chicago radio station. The other operating segments, The CW and digital businesses, focused on the national marketplace. The Company’s portfolio of digital assets, including its local TV station websites, The Hill and NewsNationNow.com. Its national television properties include The CW, NewsNation, Antenna TV, and Rewind TV.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
U.S. States Prepare Antitrust Lawsuit Against Nexstar's $6.2 Billion Acquisition of Tegna
- Antitrust Lawsuit Preparation: States including California, Colorado, and New York are preparing to file an antitrust lawsuit against Nexstar's $6.2 billion acquisition of Tegna, arguing that the deal would lead to excessive concentration in certain local TV markets, potentially harming competition.
- Transaction Timeline: Nexstar and Tegna announced the deal in November 2025, with plans to close the transaction in the second half of 2026; however, the states' lawsuit could delay the finalization of the deal.
- FCC Chairman's Support: FCC Chairman Brendan Carr expressed support for Nexstar's acquisition of Tegna earlier this month, although it remains unclear whether the deal will receive backing from the full commission.
- Market Reaction: Despite bearish sentiment among retail investors on Stocktwits regarding Nexstar and Tegna, both companies' stock prices have risen by 22% and 6.6% year-to-date, indicating a complex market response to the proposed merger.
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- Stock Price Reaction: Following this news, Tegna's stock dropped by 1.4%, while Nexstar's shares fell by 2.3%, indicating growing market concerns about the acquisition's implications for both companies' future performance.
- Regulatory Attitude: Although FCC Chairman Brendan Carr expressed support for the deal last month, it still requires waivers or changes to existing television station ownership rules, highlighting the complex regulatory landscape that could affect the transaction's outcome.
- Political Support: President Trump also signaled his support for the deal last month, stating that it would help combat
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- Stock Performance Decline: Since its January debut, Versant's stock has dropped approximately 25%, with a current market capitalization of around $4.8 billion, reflecting investor concerns regarding the traditional pay-TV business amid the rise of streaming alternatives.
- Revenue Structure Transition: CEO Mark Lazarus indicated that the company aims to transition its business model by 2026, targeting a future where 50% of revenue comes from digital and ad-supported ventures, highlighting a strategic focus on growth opportunities.
- Long-term Partnership Agreements: Versant's long-term agreements with major distributors will extend through 2028 and beyond, providing crucial stability for the company despite upcoming contract renewals, which are expected to be challenging.
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Nexstar Media Group Q4 2025 Earnings Call Insights
- Strategic Execution Success: In 2025, Nexstar successfully reviewed and renewed over 60% of its distribution agreements, further elevating The CW and NewsNation's network status, with the TEGNA acquisition expected to close by Q2 2026, demonstrating the company's proactive progress in market consolidation.
- Strong Digital Revenue Growth: Digital revenue grew in the high single digits in 2025 and is projected to surpass national advertising revenue in 2026, marking a strategic milestone in the company's digital transformation and enhancing its competitive position in the market.
- Robust Financial Performance: Q4 net revenue was $1.29 billion, a 13.4% decline year-over-year primarily due to reduced political advertising, yet distribution revenue slightly increased to $720 million, reflecting the company's efforts to diversify its revenue streams.
- Optimistic Profit Outlook: Nexstar projects 2026 adjusted EBITDA in the range of $1.95 billion to $2.05 billion, with The CW expected to achieve profitability by Q4 2026, reflecting the company's confidence in future growth and focus on cost control.
See More
Nexstar (NXST) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript
See More
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- Disappointing Earnings: Nexstar's Q4 EPS of -$5.63 significantly underperformed against the consensus estimate of $3.55, indicating substantial challenges in profitability that may undermine investor confidence.
- Revenue Decline: The fourth quarter revenue of $1.29 billion fell 13.4% year-over-year, primarily due to reduced political advertising revenue, reflecting the negative impact of the election cycle on the company's financials and potentially leading to future revenue instability.
- Slight Distribution Revenue Growth: Despite the overall revenue decline, distribution revenue reached $720 million in Q4, up 0.8% year-over-year, primarily driven by rate increases and growth in vMVPD subscribers, demonstrating resilience in certain areas of the business.
- Future Outlook: Nexstar is guiding for 2026 Adjusted EBITDA in the range of $1.95 billion to $2.05 billion, although various factors could positively or negatively affect this outlook, indicating a cautiously optimistic stance towards future performance.
See More
U.S. States Prepare Antitrust Lawsuit Against Nexstar's $6.2 Billion Acquisition of Tegna
- Antitrust Lawsuit Preparation: States including California, Colorado, and New York are preparing to file an antitrust lawsuit against Nexstar's $6.2 billion acquisition of Tegna, arguing that the deal would lead to excessive concentration in certain local TV markets, potentially harming competition.
- Transaction Timeline: Nexstar and Tegna announced the deal in November 2025, with plans to close the transaction in the second half of 2026; however, the states' lawsuit could delay the finalization of the deal.
- FCC Chairman's Support: FCC Chairman Brendan Carr expressed support for Nexstar's acquisition of Tegna earlier this month, although it remains unclear whether the deal will receive backing from the full commission.
- Market Reaction: Despite bearish sentiment among retail investors on Stocktwits regarding Nexstar and Tegna, both companies' stock prices have risen by 22% and 6.6% year-to-date, indicating a complex market response to the proposed merger.
See More
States Prepare to Challenge Nexstar's $6.2B Tegna Acquisition
- Antitrust Lawsuit Preparation: A coalition of states, including California, Colorado, and New York, is preparing to file an antitrust lawsuit against Nexstar's $6.2 billion acquisition of Tegna, arguing that the deal would lead to excessive concentration in certain local TV markets, thereby impacting competition.
- Stock Price Reaction: Following this news, Tegna's stock dropped by 1.4%, while Nexstar's shares fell by 2.3%, indicating growing market concerns about the acquisition's implications for both companies' future performance.
- Regulatory Attitude: Although FCC Chairman Brendan Carr expressed support for the deal last month, it still requires waivers or changes to existing television station ownership rules, highlighting the complex regulatory landscape that could affect the transaction's outcome.
- Political Support: President Trump also signaled his support for the deal last month, stating that it would help combat
See More
Versant Media Group Set to Release First Earnings Report as Public Company
- First Earnings Report: Versant Media Group is set to release its inaugural earnings report as a public company on Tuesday, providing Wall Street with its first insight into a company primarily composed of pay-TV networks, despite a revenue decline to $7.1 billion in 2024 from $7.4 billion in 2023, indicating market pressures.
- Stock Performance Decline: Since its January debut, Versant's stock has dropped approximately 25%, with a current market capitalization of around $4.8 billion, reflecting investor concerns regarding the traditional pay-TV business amid the rise of streaming alternatives.
- Revenue Structure Transition: CEO Mark Lazarus indicated that the company aims to transition its business model by 2026, targeting a future where 50% of revenue comes from digital and ad-supported ventures, highlighting a strategic focus on growth opportunities.
- Long-term Partnership Agreements: Versant's long-term agreements with major distributors will extend through 2028 and beyond, providing crucial stability for the company despite upcoming contract renewals, which are expected to be challenging.
See More
Nexstar Media Group Q4 2025 Earnings Call Insights
- Strategic Execution Success: In 2025, Nexstar successfully reviewed and renewed over 60% of its distribution agreements, further elevating The CW and NewsNation's network status, with the TEGNA acquisition expected to close by Q2 2026, demonstrating the company's proactive progress in market consolidation.
- Strong Digital Revenue Growth: Digital revenue grew in the high single digits in 2025 and is projected to surpass national advertising revenue in 2026, marking a strategic milestone in the company's digital transformation and enhancing its competitive position in the market.
- Robust Financial Performance: Q4 net revenue was $1.29 billion, a 13.4% decline year-over-year primarily due to reduced political advertising, yet distribution revenue slightly increased to $720 million, reflecting the company's efforts to diversify its revenue streams.
- Optimistic Profit Outlook: Nexstar projects 2026 adjusted EBITDA in the range of $1.95 billion to $2.05 billion, with The CW expected to achieve profitability by Q4 2026, reflecting the company's confidence in future growth and focus on cost control.
See More
Nexstar (NXST) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript
See More
Nexstar Reports Q4 Earnings with Mixed Results
- Disappointing Earnings: Nexstar's Q4 EPS of -$5.63 significantly underperformed against the consensus estimate of $3.55, indicating substantial challenges in profitability that may undermine investor confidence.
- Revenue Decline: The fourth quarter revenue of $1.29 billion fell 13.4% year-over-year, primarily due to reduced political advertising revenue, reflecting the negative impact of the election cycle on the company's financials and potentially leading to future revenue instability.
- Slight Distribution Revenue Growth: Despite the overall revenue decline, distribution revenue reached $720 million in Q4, up 0.8% year-over-year, primarily driven by rate increases and growth in vMVPD subscribers, demonstrating resilience in certain areas of the business.
- Future Outlook: Nexstar is guiding for 2026 Adjusted EBITDA in the range of $1.95 billion to $2.05 billion, although various factors could positively or negatively affect this outlook, indicating a cautiously optimistic stance towards future performance.
See More
