Natural Gas Price Forecast: Bullish Breakout Fizzles, Testing Support Levels
- Natural Gas Price Movement: Natural gas experienced an upside breakout of a bullish flag pattern but later fell back into consolidation, with resistance at 2.83 leading to a decline.
- Potential Support Levels: The price of natural gas may test support near the lower boundary line of the pennant consolidation pattern around 2.54, close to the 20-Day Moving Average (MA) at 2.52.
- Long-Term Indicators: The 200-Day MA at 2.45 is a key long-term indicator that could act as support, along with the 20-Day MA which has not been tested since April 26.
- Bullish Posture Outlook: Natural gas is expected to maintain a bullish posture if it stays above the 200-Day MA and even more so if it remains above the 20-Day MA.
- Author's Disclaimer: The views expressed in the article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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Rising Crude Oil Prices: Crude oil futures are reaching their highest levels in years due to geopolitical tensions, particularly the ongoing Iran war, prompting investors to strategically shift their allocations to capitalize on the price spike.
Investment Strategies: Investors are considering various options, including exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that provide exposure to the oil market without requiring the same level of involvement as direct investments, although these may carry significant volatility.
Top Performing ETFs: The Breakwave Tanker Shipping ETF (BWET) has seen over 600% gains year-to-date, driven by increased shipping oil prices and global demand, particularly influenced by U.S. involvement in Venezuela and the Iran conflict.
Alternative Oil Funds: Other leveraged ETFs, such as ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil (UCO) and ProShares Ultra Energy (DIG), offer different risk profiles and investment strategies, appealing to investors looking for short-term gains in the energy sector.

Iran's Stance on War: Iran maintains a hardline stance regarding ongoing conflicts, indicating that war will continue despite external pressures.
Rejection of U.S. Proposals: The Iranian government has rejected the U.S. timeline for negotiations and proposals related to regional security.
Response to U.S. Actions: Iran's leadership has issued a lukewarm response to U.S. proposals, signaling a lack of interest in compromise.
Demand for Sovereignty: Iran emphasizes its demand for sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz, asserting its rights in the region amidst international tensions.

Trump's Remarks on Talks: President Donald Trump described the preliminary U.S.-Iran talks as "very, very good."
Iran's Stance on Peace: Iran, represented by Tehran, expressed a desire for peace and has agreed not to pursue nuclear weapons.
Oil Price Surge: Oil prices have surged significantly due to escalating tensions in the Middle East, with Brent crude rising over 8% and U.S. crude climbing 9.1%, leading to increased interest in leveraged energy ETFs as investors anticipate further price increases.
Potential Impact of Conflict: Iran's missile attacks on Israel have raised fears of retaliation, which could disrupt oil supplies and push prices towards $100 per barrel, prompting traders to adopt bullish positions in the oil market.
- Drop in U.S. Natural Gas Prices:
- Last week, U.S. natural gas prices fell over 6% due to increased production and changing weather patterns.
- Natural gas futures settled at $2.705, marking a significant decrease.
- Prices declined for the fifth time in six sessions driven by high production levels from the Appalachian region.
- Despite extreme heat boosting spot prices, rising production levels offset the impact on the market.
- The potential cooling rains from a tropical storm added uncertainty and contributed to bearish sentiment among traders.







