Natera (NTRA): Evaluating Valuation Following Years of Share Price Growth
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Dec 20 2025
0mins
Should l Buy NTRA?
Source: Yahoo Finance
Natera's Stock Performance: Natera (NTRA) has seen a significant increase in its stock price, rising over 40% in the past year, with a notable 28.08% return in the last three months and a remarkable 458.40% total return over three years, indicating strong investor confidence in its growth in genetic testing and cancer diagnostics.
Valuation and Growth Potential: The current share price of $231.96 is slightly below the narrative fair value of $234.68, suggesting potential upside. Natera's ambitious expansion plans and investments in new product launches and R&D are expected to drive future revenue growth in personalized medicine and early detection.
Risks and Execution Concerns: The investment narrative could be jeopardized by disappointing clinical trials or reimbursement outcomes, as well as delays in achieving profitability due to heavy R&D spending, raising concerns about execution risk for investors.
Investment Insights and Recommendations: The article encourages readers to explore other healthcare stocks and provides tools for personalized investment analysis, while emphasizing that the commentary is based on historical data and not intended as financial advice.
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Analyst Views on NTRA
Wall Street analysts forecast NTRA stock price to rise
17 Analyst Rating
15 Buy
2 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 207.835
Low
172.00
Averages
252.88
High
300.00
Current: 207.835
Low
172.00
Averages
252.88
High
300.00
About NTRA
Natera, Inc. provides cell-free DNA (cfDNA) and genetic testing, dedicated to oncology, women’s health, and organ health. The Company's cfDNA technology platform combines novel molecular biology techniques with bioinformatics software and artificial intelligence. It has leveraged its platform to develop non-invasive prenatal test on the market (Panorama), the first tumor-specific assay for truly individualized cancer care (Signatera), best-in-class rejection assessment for kidney transplantation (Prospera) and others. In the women’s health space, it develops and commercializes non- or minimally- invasive tests to evaluate risk for, and thereby enable early detection of, a range of genetic conditions, such as Down syndrome. In oncology, it is focused on detecting molecular residual disease and recurrence monitoring in solid tumors, among others. In organ health, it offers tests to assess kidney, heart, and lung transplant rejection as well as genetic testing for chronic kidney disease.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Large-Scale Study: Natera has launched the EDEN study, aiming to enroll 7,500 pregnant participants in the U.S. to evaluate its non-invasive prenatal screening test for early risk assessment of pregnancy complications, showcasing the company's proactive approach in prenatal care.
- High Incidence Focus: Preeclampsia affects approximately 5-8% of pregnancies and is a leading cause of maternal and neonatal morbidity; the EDEN study aims to provide scientific evidence to improve this situation, potentially driving demand for related medical services.
- Innovative Technology Application: The test integrates cell-free DNA and other clinical data to offer personalized risk assessments, surpassing traditional clinical characteristic evaluations, thereby enhancing the precision and effectiveness of prenatal care.
- Industry-Wide Impact: Through the EDEN study, Natera aims not only to enhance its market competitiveness but also to lead technological innovation in the prenatal screening sector, potentially elevating industry standards and development.
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- Oversold Indicator: Natera Inc (Ticker: NTRA) hit an RSI of 27.8 during Wednesday's trading, indicating an oversold condition with a low of $204.86 per share, suggesting that recent heavy selling may be nearing exhaustion, prompting bullish investors to seek buying opportunities.
- Market Comparison: Compared to the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) with an RSI of 52.7, NTRA's oversold status may attract bullish investors' attention, especially given the overall stronger market performance.
- Historical Performance: NTRA shares have a 52-week low of $125.38 and a high of $256.36, with the last trade at $205.61, indicating potential price volatility that investors should monitor for rebound opportunities.
- Investor Sentiment: Despite the current low stock price, investor sentiment may shift to optimism due to the oversold signal, and if market sentiment improves, NTRA's stock price could rebound, further impacting the company's market performance.
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- Clinical Trial Success: Natera's IMvigor011 trial demonstrated that bladder cancer patients treated with atezolizumab and guided by Signatera™CDx showed statistically significant improvements in disease-free and overall survival, highlighting the test's potential in personalized therapy.
- FDA Application Submission: Natera has submitted a premarket approval application for Signatera™CDx to the FDA, marking a significant step toward making MRD-guided treatment a reality for muscle-invasive bladder cancer patients, potentially becoming the first companion diagnostic MRD test if approved.
- Strong Market Demand: Bladder cancer is the sixth most common cancer in the U.S., with muscle-invasive cases representing 20-25% of new diagnoses; the introduction of Signatera™CDx will aid in identifying high-recurrence-risk patients, enabling more effective personalized treatment options.
- Strategic Implications: Natera aims to integrate personalized genetic testing into standard care, and the successful launch of Signatera™CDx could not only enhance patient outcomes but also solidify the company's leadership position in the precision medicine sector.
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- Earnings Momentum Ratings: As the earnings season kicks off, Baxter International (BAX) and others are rated D for earnings momentum, indicating significant pressure on profitability that may undermine investor confidence.
- Multiple Companies Rated: Companies like Biogen (BIIB), Natera (NTRA), and Revolution Medicines (RVMD) also received D ratings, suggesting a notable decline in earnings expectations that could lead to stock price volatility.
- Market Impact: These ratings reflect a broader weakening of earnings momentum in the healthcare sector, potentially affecting the performance of related healthcare ETFs (such as XLV, VHT), prompting investors to reassess risks.
- Industry Outlook: As the earnings season progresses, market attention on healthcare stocks, particularly those with weak earnings momentum, may trigger broader industry adjustments and shifts in investment strategies.
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Natera Launches Large-Scale Prenatal Screening Study
- Large-Scale Study: Natera has launched the EDEN study, aiming to enroll 7,500 pregnant participants in the U.S. to evaluate its non-invasive prenatal screening test for early risk assessment of pregnancy complications, showcasing the company's proactive approach in prenatal care.
- High Incidence Focus: Preeclampsia affects approximately 5-8% of pregnancies and is a leading cause of maternal and neonatal morbidity; the EDEN study aims to provide scientific evidence to improve this situation, potentially driving demand for related medical services.
- Innovative Technology Application: The test integrates cell-free DNA and other clinical data to offer personalized risk assessments, surpassing traditional clinical characteristic evaluations, thereby enhancing the precision and effectiveness of prenatal care.
- Industry-Wide Impact: Through the EDEN study, Natera aims not only to enhance its market competitiveness but also to lead technological innovation in the prenatal screening sector, potentially elevating industry standards and development.
See More
Natera Inc Shares Show Oversold Signal
- Oversold Indicator: Natera Inc (Ticker: NTRA) hit an RSI of 27.8 during Wednesday's trading, indicating an oversold condition with a low of $204.86 per share, suggesting that recent heavy selling may be nearing exhaustion, prompting bullish investors to seek buying opportunities.
- Market Comparison: Compared to the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) with an RSI of 52.7, NTRA's oversold status may attract bullish investors' attention, especially given the overall stronger market performance.
- Historical Performance: NTRA shares have a 52-week low of $125.38 and a high of $256.36, with the last trade at $205.61, indicating potential price volatility that investors should monitor for rebound opportunities.
- Investor Sentiment: Despite the current low stock price, investor sentiment may shift to optimism due to the oversold signal, and if market sentiment improves, NTRA's stock price could rebound, further impacting the company's market performance.
See More
Natera Submits PMA for MRD Detection in Bladder Cancer
- Clinical Trial Success: Natera's IMvigor011 trial demonstrated that bladder cancer patients treated with atezolizumab and guided by Signatera™CDx showed statistically significant improvements in disease-free and overall survival, highlighting the test's potential in personalized therapy.
- FDA Application Submission: Natera has submitted a premarket approval application for Signatera™CDx to the FDA, marking a significant step toward making MRD-guided treatment a reality for muscle-invasive bladder cancer patients, potentially becoming the first companion diagnostic MRD test if approved.
- Strong Market Demand: Bladder cancer is the sixth most common cancer in the U.S., with muscle-invasive cases representing 20-25% of new diagnoses; the introduction of Signatera™CDx will aid in identifying high-recurrence-risk patients, enabling more effective personalized treatment options.
- Strategic Implications: Natera aims to integrate personalized genetic testing into standard care, and the successful launch of Signatera™CDx could not only enhance patient outcomes but also solidify the company's leadership position in the precision medicine sector.
See More
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Trump's Federal Reserve Chair Pick: If Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Federal Reserve chair, it highlights his connection to influential financial leaders.
Stanley Druckenmiller's Influence: Investor Stanley Druckenmiller has mentored both Warsh and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, positioning him uniquely in Washington's financial landscape.
See More
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- AI Infrastructure Boost: ARK Invest increased positions in semiconductor companies like AMD, Broadcom, and TSMC, signaling strong confidence in the infrastructure for AI workloads, which is expected to drive long-term growth for these firms.
- Gene Editing Investments: The firm added 196K shares of Intellia Therapeutics and 49K shares of 10x Genomics, continuing to focus on next-generation sequencing and in vivo gene editing, aiming to capture innovative opportunities in the biotech sector.
- Autonomous Driving Focus: ARK invested in companies like WeRide and Pony AI in the autonomous driving and robotics space, reinforcing its strategic positioning in future transportation technologies, which is likely to enhance portfolio diversity and potential returns.
- Trimmed Mature Tech Holdings: ARK sold over 86K shares of Tesla worth more than $37 million and reduced stakes in Unity Software, reflecting a cautious stance on mature tech companies that may impact short-term stock performance.
See More
Earnings Momentum Review: BAX and Others Rated D
- Earnings Momentum Ratings: As the earnings season kicks off, Baxter International (BAX) and others are rated D for earnings momentum, indicating significant pressure on profitability that may undermine investor confidence.
- Multiple Companies Rated: Companies like Biogen (BIIB), Natera (NTRA), and Revolution Medicines (RVMD) also received D ratings, suggesting a notable decline in earnings expectations that could lead to stock price volatility.
- Market Impact: These ratings reflect a broader weakening of earnings momentum in the healthcare sector, potentially affecting the performance of related healthcare ETFs (such as XLV, VHT), prompting investors to reassess risks.
- Industry Outlook: As the earnings season progresses, market attention on healthcare stocks, particularly those with weak earnings momentum, may trigger broader industry adjustments and shifts in investment strategies.
See More
