Molina Healthcare Shares Plunge 33% After Disappointing Q4 Earnings and 2026 Guidance
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Feb 05 2026
0mins
Should l Buy MOH?
Source: seekingalpha
- Earnings Disappointment: Molina Healthcare's stock plummeted approximately 33% in after-hours trading following its Q4 earnings report, reflecting strong market disappointment over its 2026 profit guidance, projecting adjusted earnings of only $5.00 per share compared to the consensus of $13.71.
- Revenue Downgrade: The company forecasts full-year revenue of $44.5 billion for 2026, falling short of the market expectation of $46.79 billion, indicating a negative impact on earnings of $2.50 per share due to the implementation of a new Medicaid contract.
- Strategic Shift: Molina announced it will discontinue its Medicare Advantage Part D plan in 2027, as it does not align with the company's strategic focus on its $5 billion dual eligible business, with Part D generating approximately $1 billion annually in premium revenue.
- Policy Impact: The Trump administration proposed nearly flat reimbursement rates for Medicare Advantage payers in 2027 at the end of January, which may further exacerbate Molina's pressures in the Medicare market, affecting its future profitability and competitive position.
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Analyst Views on MOH
Wall Street analysts forecast MOH stock price to rise
14 Analyst Rating
3 Buy
9 Hold
2 Sell
Hold
Current: 126.710
Low
155.00
Averages
180.85
High
250.00
Current: 126.710
Low
155.00
Averages
180.85
High
250.00
About MOH
Molina Healthcare, Inc. is a provider of managed healthcare services under the Medicaid and Medicare programs, and through the state insurance marketplaces. The Company operates through four segments: Medicaid, Medicare, Marketplace and Other. The Medicaid, Medicare, and Marketplace segments represent the government-funded or sponsored programs under which it offers managed healthcare services. Medicaid provides healthcare and long-term services and support to low-income Americans. Medicare is a federal program that provides eligible persons aged 65 and over, and some disabled persons, with a variety of hospital, medical insurance, and prescription drug benefits. The Marketplace insurance exchanges allow individuals and small groups to purchase federally subsidized health insurance. It arranges healthcare services for its members through contracts with a network of providers, including independent physicians and physician groups, hospitals, ancillary providers, and pharmacies.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Dial-in Participation: Participants can join the call by dialing (877) 883-0383 and using confirmation number 0597929, allowing investors to engage directly in discussions and receive real-time feedback.
- Replay Information: After the call, investors can listen to a replay by dialing (855) 669-9658 with confirmation number 4621527, ensuring that those unable to attend live can still access important information.
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- Significant Contract Win: The company secured a historic Children's Medical Services contract in Florida, expected to yield $6 billion in annual revenue, which will lay a foundation for future growth and demonstrates Molina's strategic advantage in a competitive healthcare landscape.
- Strategic Shift: Molina has decided to exit the traditional MAPD product to focus exclusively on dual-eligible Medicare members, a strategic realignment aimed at optimizing resource allocation and enhancing profitability, which is expected to have a profound impact on the business structure by 2027.
- Cautious Future Outlook: Management projects 2026 premium revenue of approximately $42 billion; however, despite growth from new contracts, overall market decline and rising medical costs will pressure profitability, reflecting the company's cautious approach to navigating market volatility.
See More
