M Stanley: BUD APAC (01876.HK) Quarterly Results Underperform Expectations; Rating Maintained at Overweight
Financial Performance: BUD APAC reported a 4Q25 revenue of US$1.073 billion, slightly below market expectations, with an adjusted EBITDA of US$167 million, also falling short of forecasts.
Market Trends: The company's sales in the China market declined by 11.4%, with a decrease in volume of 3.9% and a 7.7% drop in organic average selling price, attributed to increased investments in trade channels.
Short Selling Activity: The stock experienced significant short selling, amounting to $60.59 million, with a short selling ratio of 46.101%.
Broker Rating: Despite the challenges, brokers rated BUD APAC as Overweight, setting a target price of $9 for the stock.
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M Stanley Reduces Earnings Projections for BUD APAC (01876.HK) for 2026/2027; Maintains Overweight Rating and $9 Price Target
Morgan Stanley's Earnings Forecasts: Morgan Stanley has lowered its earnings forecasts for BUD APAC for 2026 and 2027 by 12% and 14%, respectively, while introducing a 2028 EPS forecast of US$0.06.
Impact of Household Drinking Channels: The broker adjusted its average selling price forecasts for 2026-2027 down by 2-3% due to an increased proportion of household drinking channels in China.
Target Price and Rating: Despite the lowered forecasts, Morgan Stanley maintained its Overweight rating on BUD APAC and kept the target price at $9.
Short Selling Data: As of February 13, 2026, BUD APAC has a short selling amount of $57.35M with a ratio of 36.830%.
HSBC Research Lowers BUD APAC (01876.HK) Price Target to $8.3, Maintains Hold Rating
Stock Performance: BUD APAC (01876.HK) experienced a slight decline of 0.756%, with short selling amounting to $57.35M and a ratio of 36.830%.
Earnings Forecast: HSBC Global Research reported that BUD APAC's 2025 normalized EBITDA was 1% below expectations, while maintaining a consistent dividend policy with an expected yield of 4.8% for 2026.
Growth Strategy: The company aims to reignite growth in the Chinese market, explore opportunities in South Korea, and sustain momentum in India for 2026.
Brokerage Update: CICC has maintained an "Outperform" rating on BUD APAC but reduced its target price from $8.4 to $8.3, citing concerns over sales exposure to the catering channel amid demand recovery pressures.
UBS Adjusts Target Price for BUD APAC (01876.HK) to HKD8.6, Anticipates Slower Recovery in China Sales
Revenue and EBITDA Forecasts: BUD APAC is projected to experience a year-over-year decline in revenue and normalized EBITDA for 2025, with estimates of USD5.764 billion and USD1.588 billion, respectively, which is below market expectations.
Market Recovery Expectations: UBS Global Research anticipates a slowdown in sales recovery in the Chinese market, potentially delaying improvements until the second half of 2026, despite raising revenue forecasts for 2026-28 by 2-3% due to expected RMB appreciation.
G Sachs Predicts BUD APAC (01876.HK) Will Achieve Revenue Growth in China This Year, Maintains Buy Rating
Sales Performance: BUD APAC experienced a year-over-year decline of 6.1% in organic sales and 9.8% in EBITDA for 2025, primarily due to a downturn in the China market, where sales volume fell by 8.6%.
Market Stabilization: Signs of stabilization in the China market are emerging, with a narrowing decline in sales volume to 3.9% in Q4 2025.
Future Outlook: For 2026, BUD APAC anticipates slight challenges from commodity price costs but expects the China market to return to positive revenue growth, with stable average selling prices and a projected 2% increase in sales volume.
Analyst Rating: Goldman Sachs maintains a "Buy" rating for BUD APAC with a target price of $8.4, despite the recent declines in sales and EBITDA.
JPM Maintains Neutral Rating on BUD APAC; Chinese Operations Impact Quarterly Performance
Financial Performance: BUD APAC reported a 25% YoY decline in EBITDA for 4Q25, falling 12% short of market expectations, with a 4% drop in sales attributed mainly to Bud China’s poor performance.
Challenges Faced: Bud China experienced significant decreases in sales and EBITDA, driven by increased promotional activities and deleveraging effects, leading to an 11% and 42% YoY decline, respectively.
Future Outlook: Despite recent challenges, Bud China has shown improved sales momentum since 4Q25 and plans to enhance growth in FY26 by investing in at-home consumption distribution capabilities.
Analyst Rating: JPMorgan maintains a Neutral rating on BUD APAC with a target price of HKD7.9, forecasting a 3.4% growth in sales and a 5.4% growth in EBITDA for 2026.
UOB Kay Hian Assigns HKD9.9 Price Target to BUD APAC with Buy Rating; CN Operations Show Improvement in Q4
4Q25 Financial Performance: BUD APAC reported a 4% year-over-year decline in revenue to USD1.073 billion, attributed to a slight decrease in volume and average selling price.
EBITDA and Profit Margin: The company's normalized EBITDA fell by 25% YoY to USD167 million, with the profit margin decreasing by 425 basis points to 15.6%.
Market Conditions in China: There are indications of operational improvement in the Chinese market during 4Q25, with stabilization in volume and market share.
Analyst Ratings: UOB Kay Hian maintained a Buy rating for BUD APAC with a target price of HKD9.9, while CICC has kept an Outperform rating but reduced earnings forecasts.
M Stanley Reduces Earnings Projections for BUD APAC (01876.HK) for 2026/2027; Maintains Overweight Rating and $9 Price Target
Morgan Stanley's Earnings Forecasts: Morgan Stanley has lowered its earnings forecasts for BUD APAC for 2026 and 2027 by 12% and 14%, respectively, while introducing a 2028 EPS forecast of US$0.06.
Impact of Household Drinking Channels: The broker adjusted its average selling price forecasts for 2026-2027 down by 2-3% due to an increased proportion of household drinking channels in China.
Target Price and Rating: Despite the lowered forecasts, Morgan Stanley maintained its Overweight rating on BUD APAC and kept the target price at $9.
Short Selling Data: As of February 13, 2026, BUD APAC has a short selling amount of $57.35M with a ratio of 36.830%.
HSBC Research Lowers BUD APAC (01876.HK) Price Target to $8.3, Maintains Hold Rating
Stock Performance: BUD APAC (01876.HK) experienced a slight decline of 0.756%, with short selling amounting to $57.35M and a ratio of 36.830%.
Earnings Forecast: HSBC Global Research reported that BUD APAC's 2025 normalized EBITDA was 1% below expectations, while maintaining a consistent dividend policy with an expected yield of 4.8% for 2026.
Growth Strategy: The company aims to reignite growth in the Chinese market, explore opportunities in South Korea, and sustain momentum in India for 2026.
Brokerage Update: CICC has maintained an "Outperform" rating on BUD APAC but reduced its target price from $8.4 to $8.3, citing concerns over sales exposure to the catering channel amid demand recovery pressures.
UBS Adjusts Target Price for BUD APAC (01876.HK) to HKD8.6, Anticipates Slower Recovery in China Sales
Revenue and EBITDA Forecasts: BUD APAC is projected to experience a year-over-year decline in revenue and normalized EBITDA for 2025, with estimates of USD5.764 billion and USD1.588 billion, respectively, which is below market expectations.
Market Recovery Expectations: UBS Global Research anticipates a slowdown in sales recovery in the Chinese market, potentially delaying improvements until the second half of 2026, despite raising revenue forecasts for 2026-28 by 2-3% due to expected RMB appreciation.
G Sachs Predicts BUD APAC (01876.HK) Will Achieve Revenue Growth in China This Year, Maintains Buy Rating
Sales Performance: BUD APAC experienced a year-over-year decline of 6.1% in organic sales and 9.8% in EBITDA for 2025, primarily due to a downturn in the China market, where sales volume fell by 8.6%.
Market Stabilization: Signs of stabilization in the China market are emerging, with a narrowing decline in sales volume to 3.9% in Q4 2025.
Future Outlook: For 2026, BUD APAC anticipates slight challenges from commodity price costs but expects the China market to return to positive revenue growth, with stable average selling prices and a projected 2% increase in sales volume.
Analyst Rating: Goldman Sachs maintains a "Buy" rating for BUD APAC with a target price of $8.4, despite the recent declines in sales and EBITDA.
JPM Maintains Neutral Rating on BUD APAC; Chinese Operations Impact Quarterly Performance
Financial Performance: BUD APAC reported a 25% YoY decline in EBITDA for 4Q25, falling 12% short of market expectations, with a 4% drop in sales attributed mainly to Bud China’s poor performance.
Challenges Faced: Bud China experienced significant decreases in sales and EBITDA, driven by increased promotional activities and deleveraging effects, leading to an 11% and 42% YoY decline, respectively.
Future Outlook: Despite recent challenges, Bud China has shown improved sales momentum since 4Q25 and plans to enhance growth in FY26 by investing in at-home consumption distribution capabilities.
Analyst Rating: JPMorgan maintains a Neutral rating on BUD APAC with a target price of HKD7.9, forecasting a 3.4% growth in sales and a 5.4% growth in EBITDA for 2026.
UOB Kay Hian Assigns HKD9.9 Price Target to BUD APAC with Buy Rating; CN Operations Show Improvement in Q4
4Q25 Financial Performance: BUD APAC reported a 4% year-over-year decline in revenue to USD1.073 billion, attributed to a slight decrease in volume and average selling price.
EBITDA and Profit Margin: The company's normalized EBITDA fell by 25% YoY to USD167 million, with the profit margin decreasing by 425 basis points to 15.6%.
Market Conditions in China: There are indications of operational improvement in the Chinese market during 4Q25, with stabilization in volume and market share.
Analyst Ratings: UOB Kay Hian maintained a Buy rating for BUD APAC with a target price of HKD9.9, while CICC has kept an Outperform rating but reduced earnings forecasts.
