Look Under The Hood: FEX Has 15% Upside
ETF Analysis: The First Trust Large Cap Core AlphaDEX Fund ETF (FEX) has an implied analyst target price of $119.82 per unit, indicating a potential upside of 14.79% from its current trading price of $104.38.
Stock Performance Insights: Notable underlying holdings such as Tenet Healthcare Corp., L3Harris Technologies Inc., and Alnylam Pharmaceuticals Inc. show significant upside potential based on analysts' target prices, raising questions about the validity of these targets in light of recent market developments.
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Defense Stocks Rally Nearly 100%, Optimism Grows
- Rapid Defense Budget Growth: The U.S. defense budget has surpassed $1 trillion, with NATO countries expected to increase core defense spending to 3.5% of GDP by 2035, potentially adding around $370 billion in spending from non-U.S. NATO members, indicating a robust growth trend in defense budgets.
- Potential $1.5 Trillion Budget: At a recent Defense Outlook Forum, retired Gen. Arnold Punaro expressed optimism that the U.S. defense budget could grow to $1.5 trillion, representing a roughly 50% increase from fiscal 2026 levels, although analysts remain cautious about the feasibility of such growth.
- AI and Automation in Warfare: The Department of Defense emphasizes the increasing importance of automation, autonomy, and artificial intelligence in warfare, pushing contractors to enhance output, reduce costs, and build a lasting software advantage, which could enable defense firms to achieve margins similar to those in commercial aerospace or technology sectors.
- Valuation Concerns for Defense Stocks: Despite a nearly 100% rally in defense stocks raising valuation concerns, this surge appears grounded in fundamentals, as governments commit to multi-year budget increases, geopolitical tensions remain high, and global missile and munitions inventories are depleted, making defense a clear policy priority for the U.S. and NATO allies.
Trump Administration Increases Investments in Critical Minerals
- Surge in Investments: The Trump administration has made unprecedented equity investments in at least 10 companies over the past year, including critical minerals and chipmakers, aiming to build a domestic supply chain and reduce reliance on China, indicating a proactive government role in economic strategy.
- U.S. Steel Golden Share: The administration secured a golden share in U.S. Steel as a condition for approving Nippon Steel's acquisition, granting the president veto power over key business decisions, which ensures stability and growth in the U.S. steel industry, reflecting direct government intervention in vital sectors.
- Strategic Deal with MP Materials: The Defense Department struck a landmark deal with MP Materials, investing $400 million in preferred stock with rights to purchase additional shares, positioning the Pentagon as the largest single shareholder and further solidifying U.S. dominance in the rare earth mining sector.
- L3Harris and Defense Partnership: L3Harris announced a proposed partnership with the U.S. government, where the Pentagon will invest $1 billion in its rocket motor business, with plans for an IPO in the second half of 2026, allowing the Pentagon's investment to convert into common equity, enhancing the capital base of the defense industry.
RTX Shares Increase as Missile Production Potentially Set to Quadruple.
Increased Production Focus: The Defense Department is prioritizing the rapid increase of weapons production to meet growing demands.
Response to Global Threats: This initiative is part of a broader strategy to address emerging global security threats and enhance military readiness.
L3 Technologies Secures $283.3M Contract for Ground Control Support
- Contract Value: L3 Technologies has been awarded a $283.3 million ID/IQ contract aimed at providing ground control element support and sustainment services, which will significantly enhance its market position in the defense sector.
- Service Scope: The contract encompasses the necessary logistics support and sustainment services required to maintain and enhance the performance of element systems and ancillary capabilities, ensuring long-term system reliability and operational effectiveness.
- Project Location and Timeline: Work will be performed in Salt Lake City, Utah, and is expected to be completed by January 29, 2031, providing the company with a stable revenue stream over the long term.
- Funding Allocation: At the time of the award, $3.5 million from the Fiscal 2026 operations and maintenance funds will be obligated for this project, indicating government commitment and its positive impact on L3 Technologies' future financial performance.
Where Investment Attention Is Centered in Defense
- Defense Stocks Performance: Defense stocks have seen a recent increase in value, attracting investor attention.
- Smart Money Insight: Investors are advised to monitor the actions of institutional investors, referred to as "smart money," for better investment decisions.
Gold, Copper, and Missiles: Three Major Dividend Increases Following a Successful Year
2025 Performance Highlights: The aerospace and defense sectors saw significant returns in 2025, with the iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF delivering nearly 49% and the SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF achieving around 83%, marking their best performances in over a decade.
Franco-Nevada's Dividend Increase: Franco-Nevada Corporation announced a substantial 16% increase in its quarterly dividend to $0.44, driven by strong gold and silver prices, and expects to continue rewarding shareholders with consistent payouts.
Southern Copper's Strong Returns: Southern Copper Corporation reported a remarkable 68% total return in 2025, alongside a 11% increase in its quarterly cash dividend to $1.00, reflecting its position as a leading copper producer.
L3 Harris Technologies' Dividend Growth: L3 Harris Technologies declared a quarterly dividend of $1.25, representing a 4% increase, and is focused on maintaining a controlling stake in its missile solutions business while also planning to spin off this segment into a publicly traded entity.
Defense Stocks Rally Nearly 100%, Optimism Grows
- Rapid Defense Budget Growth: The U.S. defense budget has surpassed $1 trillion, with NATO countries expected to increase core defense spending to 3.5% of GDP by 2035, potentially adding around $370 billion in spending from non-U.S. NATO members, indicating a robust growth trend in defense budgets.
- Potential $1.5 Trillion Budget: At a recent Defense Outlook Forum, retired Gen. Arnold Punaro expressed optimism that the U.S. defense budget could grow to $1.5 trillion, representing a roughly 50% increase from fiscal 2026 levels, although analysts remain cautious about the feasibility of such growth.
- AI and Automation in Warfare: The Department of Defense emphasizes the increasing importance of automation, autonomy, and artificial intelligence in warfare, pushing contractors to enhance output, reduce costs, and build a lasting software advantage, which could enable defense firms to achieve margins similar to those in commercial aerospace or technology sectors.
- Valuation Concerns for Defense Stocks: Despite a nearly 100% rally in defense stocks raising valuation concerns, this surge appears grounded in fundamentals, as governments commit to multi-year budget increases, geopolitical tensions remain high, and global missile and munitions inventories are depleted, making defense a clear policy priority for the U.S. and NATO allies.
Trump Administration Increases Investments in Critical Minerals
- Surge in Investments: The Trump administration has made unprecedented equity investments in at least 10 companies over the past year, including critical minerals and chipmakers, aiming to build a domestic supply chain and reduce reliance on China, indicating a proactive government role in economic strategy.
- U.S. Steel Golden Share: The administration secured a golden share in U.S. Steel as a condition for approving Nippon Steel's acquisition, granting the president veto power over key business decisions, which ensures stability and growth in the U.S. steel industry, reflecting direct government intervention in vital sectors.
- Strategic Deal with MP Materials: The Defense Department struck a landmark deal with MP Materials, investing $400 million in preferred stock with rights to purchase additional shares, positioning the Pentagon as the largest single shareholder and further solidifying U.S. dominance in the rare earth mining sector.
- L3Harris and Defense Partnership: L3Harris announced a proposed partnership with the U.S. government, where the Pentagon will invest $1 billion in its rocket motor business, with plans for an IPO in the second half of 2026, allowing the Pentagon's investment to convert into common equity, enhancing the capital base of the defense industry.
RTX Shares Increase as Missile Production Potentially Set to Quadruple.
Increased Production Focus: The Defense Department is prioritizing the rapid increase of weapons production to meet growing demands.
Response to Global Threats: This initiative is part of a broader strategy to address emerging global security threats and enhance military readiness.
L3 Technologies Secures $283.3M Contract for Ground Control Support
- Contract Value: L3 Technologies has been awarded a $283.3 million ID/IQ contract aimed at providing ground control element support and sustainment services, which will significantly enhance its market position in the defense sector.
- Service Scope: The contract encompasses the necessary logistics support and sustainment services required to maintain and enhance the performance of element systems and ancillary capabilities, ensuring long-term system reliability and operational effectiveness.
- Project Location and Timeline: Work will be performed in Salt Lake City, Utah, and is expected to be completed by January 29, 2031, providing the company with a stable revenue stream over the long term.
- Funding Allocation: At the time of the award, $3.5 million from the Fiscal 2026 operations and maintenance funds will be obligated for this project, indicating government commitment and its positive impact on L3 Technologies' future financial performance.
Where Investment Attention Is Centered in Defense
- Defense Stocks Performance: Defense stocks have seen a recent increase in value, attracting investor attention.
- Smart Money Insight: Investors are advised to monitor the actions of institutional investors, referred to as "smart money," for better investment decisions.
Gold, Copper, and Missiles: Three Major Dividend Increases Following a Successful Year
2025 Performance Highlights: The aerospace and defense sectors saw significant returns in 2025, with the iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF delivering nearly 49% and the SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF achieving around 83%, marking their best performances in over a decade.
Franco-Nevada's Dividend Increase: Franco-Nevada Corporation announced a substantial 16% increase in its quarterly dividend to $0.44, driven by strong gold and silver prices, and expects to continue rewarding shareholders with consistent payouts.
Southern Copper's Strong Returns: Southern Copper Corporation reported a remarkable 68% total return in 2025, alongside a 11% increase in its quarterly cash dividend to $1.00, reflecting its position as a leading copper producer.
L3 Harris Technologies' Dividend Growth: L3 Harris Technologies declared a quarterly dividend of $1.25, representing a 4% increase, and is focused on maintaining a controlling stake in its missile solutions business while also planning to spin off this segment into a publicly traded entity.
