JPMorgan Downgrades Kraft Heinz Amid Challenges
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 3 days ago
0mins
Should l Buy KHC?
Source: CNBC
- Rating Downgrade: JPMorgan downgraded Kraft Heinz from neutral to underweight, with analyst Thomas Palmer lowering the price target from $24 to $22, indicating a potential downside of 12% and reflecting market concerns about the company's outlook.
- Poor Performance: Although Kraft Heinz reported a fourth-quarter earnings beat, its earnings per share and organic sales growth outlook for 2026 fell below consensus estimates, indicating the company failed to meet Wall Street's revenue expectations.
- Investment Plans: The company announced a $600 million investment aimed at turning around its U.S. business, with funds allocated to marketing, sales, and R&D, demonstrating a commitment to future growth, although these investments may take time to yield results.
- Ongoing Challenges: Kraft Heinz faces broad-based volume challenges in the U.S., with a 3% year-over-year decline for 19 consecutive quarters, attributed to market share losses and weak category performance, while the pause on its breakup plan further limits the company's financial flexibility.
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Analyst Views on KHC
Wall Street analysts forecast KHC stock price to rise
15 Analyst Rating
0 Buy
14 Hold
1 Sell
Hold
Current: 24.320
Low
24.00
Averages
25.86
High
28.00
Current: 24.320
Low
24.00
Averages
25.86
High
28.00
About KHC
The Kraft Heinz Company manufactures and markets food and beverage products around the world through its eight consumer-driven product platforms: Taste Elevation, Easy Ready Meals, Substantial Snacking, Desserts, Hydration, Cheese, Coffee, and Meats. The Company has two reportable segments defined by geographic region: North America and International Developed Markets. Its other segments, consisting of West and East Emerging Markets (WEEM) and Asia Emerging Markets (AEM), are combined and disclosed as Emerging Markets. It manufactures its products from a wide variety of raw materials. Its brands include Kraft, Oscar Mayer, Heinz, Philadelphia, Lunchables, Velveeta, Ore-Ida, Capri Sun, Maxwell Apartment, Kool-Aid, Jell-O, Heinz, Golden Circle, Wattie’s, Plasmon, Heinz, ABC, Master, Quero, Kraft, and Pudliszki, among others. The Company’s products are sold through its own sales organizations and through independent brokers, agents, and distributors.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Kraft Heinz Maintains Single Entity Strategy Amid Downgrade
- Lackluster Outlook: Kraft Heinz (KHC) faced a downgrade to Underweight by J.P. Morgan analysts following its Q4 results, indicating ongoing challenges that may limit expected volume growth as 2026 approaches.
- Declining Volumes: Despite investments in innovation and marketing, KHC has experienced over a 3% decline in North American volumes for 19 consecutive quarters, highlighting persistent market share losses and weak category performance.
- Market Share Losses: Nielsen data reveals that KHC is losing volume share in 10 out of its 13 largest U.S. retail categories, including packaged lunch meat, underscoring increasing competitive pressures.
- Delayed ROI on Investments: While KHC anticipates that increased marketing investments will boost sales in Q2 and beyond, analysts express skepticism about the speed of this transformation, suggesting that the 2026 outlook may be overly conservative.
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Wall Street Analysts Weekly Recap: Oracle and Unity Upgrades
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- Unity's Positive Outlook: Oppenheimer upgraded Unity Software (NYSE:U) to Outperform with a $38 price target, arguing that market fears regarding Google's Project Genie are unfounded, as Unity remains the essential backbone of development, with forecasts indicating accelerating revenue and improving margins, presenting a strong risk/reward scenario.
- Norwegian Cruise Downgrade: Barclays downgraded Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NYSE:NCLH) to Equal Weight with a $23 price target, citing a 24% stock price increase over the past three months, while facing weak 2026 yield expectations and increased competition that could undermine brand value.
- Kraft Heinz's Dim Prospects: JPMorgan downgraded Kraft Heinz (NASDAQ:KHC) to Underweight with a $22 price target; despite beating Q4 2025 earnings expectations, the disappointing 2026 outlook, with North American volumes down for 19 consecutive quarters, raises concerns about the sustainability of dividends absorbing nearly 80% of free cash flow this year.
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Kraft Heinz Stays Together for Now Amid Challenges
- Strategic Reset Commitment: Kraft Heinz's new CEO Steve Cahillane has committed to a strategic reset with a $600 million investment aimed at addressing brand erosion and market pressures, although analysts express caution regarding the high-risk execution of this strategy.
- Brand Value Erosion: Since the 2015 merger, Kraft Heinz has written down the value of its Kraft and Oscar Mayer brands by $15.4 billion due to shifts in consumer preferences and increased competition, resulting in a more than 50% decline in stock price over a 13-month period.
- Uncertain Market Outlook: While Kraft Heinz's stock price has rebounded due to investor optimism, analysts warn that the absence of a separation catalyst may leave the company in a holding pattern through 2026, with unclear future growth prospects.
- Shareholder Confidence Shaken: Buffett has acknowledged that his investment in Kraft Heinz is one of his greatest missteps, and with Berkshire Hathaway reducing its stake, market confidence in the company's future is waning, prompting investors to closely monitor the upcoming CAGNY conference for insights on the effectiveness of the strategic reset.
See More
Kraft Heinz Halts Split Plan Amid Performance Issues
- Performance Decline: Kraft Heinz reported a 20.2% drop in adjusted EPS to 67 cents for Q4, with sales at $6.354 billion falling short of Wall Street's $6.376 billion forecast, highlighting significant growth challenges facing the company.
- Strategic Shift: CEO Cahillane has opted to halt the previously announced split plan to focus on resolving internal issues, announcing a $600 million investment in marketing, sales, and R&D aimed at accelerating growth in the Taste Elevation portfolio.
- Regional Performance Variance: North American revenue fell 5.4% to $4.70 billion, while International Developed Markets rose 1.8% to $930 million and Emerging Markets increased 4.3% to $724 million, indicating varied performance across regions.
- Shareholder Support: Berkshire Hathaway, holding a 27.5% stake valued at approximately $8.1 billion, backs Cahillane's decision, emphasizing that maintaining the company's unity may contribute to future stability and growth.
See More
Buffett Endorses Kraft Heinz CEO's Strategic Shift
- Strategic Support: Kraft Heinz's new CEO Steve Cahillane announced a pause on the planned separation after five weeks in office, indicating that the challenges are manageable and opportunities exceed expectations; this decision received backing from Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway, aiming to enhance the company's competitiveness and customer service capabilities.
- Shareholder Interest Preservation: Berkshire holds a 27.5% stake in Kraft Heinz, currently valued at approximately $8.1 billion, and the pause on the separation helps protect shareholder interests by avoiding potential share sales, reflecting Buffett's confidence in the company's future.
- Market Reaction: Although Kraft Heinz's stock initially fell upon the announcement of the separation pause, it quickly rebounded to close the week with a 0.7% gain, indicating market recognition and confidence in the new strategy.
- Future Outlook: Berkshire is expected to release its latest portfolio snapshot next week, with investors keenly watching whether it continues to reduce its positions in Apple and Bank of America, as well as developments regarding new portfolio manager Todd Combs, which will influence market expectations for Berkshire's future performance.
See More
Kraft Heinz Pauses Separation Plan Under New CEO
- New CEO's Strategic Shift: Kraft Heinz's new CEO Steve Cahillane announced a pause on the planned separation after five weeks in office, believing that the challenges faced are manageable and opportunities exceed expectations, which may enhance the company's competitiveness and market performance.
- Berkshire's Support: Berkshire Hathaway's CEO Greg Abel publicly endorsed Cahillane's decision, emphasizing that this strategic adjustment will allow management to focus on strengthening Kraft Heinz's market competitiveness, reflecting Berkshire's confidence in its investment.
- Positive Shareholder Reaction: Although Kraft Heinz's stock initially fell upon the announcement of the separation pause, it quickly rebounded to close the week with a 0.7% gain, indicating market recognition and anticipation of the new strategy.
- Potential Equity Changes: Berkshire had previously considered selling its stake in Kraft Heinz, and the pause on the separation may help stabilize the stock price and avoid large-scale sell-offs, further solidifying Berkshire's investment position in the company.
See More
Kraft Heinz Maintains Single Entity Strategy Amid Downgrade
- Lackluster Outlook: Kraft Heinz (KHC) faced a downgrade to Underweight by J.P. Morgan analysts following its Q4 results, indicating ongoing challenges that may limit expected volume growth as 2026 approaches.
- Declining Volumes: Despite investments in innovation and marketing, KHC has experienced over a 3% decline in North American volumes for 19 consecutive quarters, highlighting persistent market share losses and weak category performance.
- Market Share Losses: Nielsen data reveals that KHC is losing volume share in 10 out of its 13 largest U.S. retail categories, including packaged lunch meat, underscoring increasing competitive pressures.
- Delayed ROI on Investments: While KHC anticipates that increased marketing investments will boost sales in Q2 and beyond, analysts express skepticism about the speed of this transformation, suggesting that the 2026 outlook may be overly conservative.
See More
Wall Street Analysts Weekly Recap: Oracle and Unity Upgrades
- Oracle Upgrade: DA Davidson upgraded Oracle (NYSE:ORCL) from Neutral to Buy with a $180 price target, despite the company carrying $130 billion in debt and $248 billion in leases; analysts believe the growth potential justifies investment, expecting only minor stock fluctuations over the next ten weeks.
- Unity's Positive Outlook: Oppenheimer upgraded Unity Software (NYSE:U) to Outperform with a $38 price target, arguing that market fears regarding Google's Project Genie are unfounded, as Unity remains the essential backbone of development, with forecasts indicating accelerating revenue and improving margins, presenting a strong risk/reward scenario.
- Norwegian Cruise Downgrade: Barclays downgraded Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NYSE:NCLH) to Equal Weight with a $23 price target, citing a 24% stock price increase over the past three months, while facing weak 2026 yield expectations and increased competition that could undermine brand value.
- Kraft Heinz's Dim Prospects: JPMorgan downgraded Kraft Heinz (NASDAQ:KHC) to Underweight with a $22 price target; despite beating Q4 2025 earnings expectations, the disappointing 2026 outlook, with North American volumes down for 19 consecutive quarters, raises concerns about the sustainability of dividends absorbing nearly 80% of free cash flow this year.
See More
Kraft Heinz Stays Together for Now Amid Challenges
- Strategic Reset Commitment: Kraft Heinz's new CEO Steve Cahillane has committed to a strategic reset with a $600 million investment aimed at addressing brand erosion and market pressures, although analysts express caution regarding the high-risk execution of this strategy.
- Brand Value Erosion: Since the 2015 merger, Kraft Heinz has written down the value of its Kraft and Oscar Mayer brands by $15.4 billion due to shifts in consumer preferences and increased competition, resulting in a more than 50% decline in stock price over a 13-month period.
- Uncertain Market Outlook: While Kraft Heinz's stock price has rebounded due to investor optimism, analysts warn that the absence of a separation catalyst may leave the company in a holding pattern through 2026, with unclear future growth prospects.
- Shareholder Confidence Shaken: Buffett has acknowledged that his investment in Kraft Heinz is one of his greatest missteps, and with Berkshire Hathaway reducing its stake, market confidence in the company's future is waning, prompting investors to closely monitor the upcoming CAGNY conference for insights on the effectiveness of the strategic reset.
See More
Kraft Heinz Halts Split Plan Amid Performance Issues
- Performance Decline: Kraft Heinz reported a 20.2% drop in adjusted EPS to 67 cents for Q4, with sales at $6.354 billion falling short of Wall Street's $6.376 billion forecast, highlighting significant growth challenges facing the company.
- Strategic Shift: CEO Cahillane has opted to halt the previously announced split plan to focus on resolving internal issues, announcing a $600 million investment in marketing, sales, and R&D aimed at accelerating growth in the Taste Elevation portfolio.
- Regional Performance Variance: North American revenue fell 5.4% to $4.70 billion, while International Developed Markets rose 1.8% to $930 million and Emerging Markets increased 4.3% to $724 million, indicating varied performance across regions.
- Shareholder Support: Berkshire Hathaway, holding a 27.5% stake valued at approximately $8.1 billion, backs Cahillane's decision, emphasizing that maintaining the company's unity may contribute to future stability and growth.
See More
Buffett Endorses Kraft Heinz CEO's Strategic Shift
- Strategic Support: Kraft Heinz's new CEO Steve Cahillane announced a pause on the planned separation after five weeks in office, indicating that the challenges are manageable and opportunities exceed expectations; this decision received backing from Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway, aiming to enhance the company's competitiveness and customer service capabilities.
- Shareholder Interest Preservation: Berkshire holds a 27.5% stake in Kraft Heinz, currently valued at approximately $8.1 billion, and the pause on the separation helps protect shareholder interests by avoiding potential share sales, reflecting Buffett's confidence in the company's future.
- Market Reaction: Although Kraft Heinz's stock initially fell upon the announcement of the separation pause, it quickly rebounded to close the week with a 0.7% gain, indicating market recognition and confidence in the new strategy.
- Future Outlook: Berkshire is expected to release its latest portfolio snapshot next week, with investors keenly watching whether it continues to reduce its positions in Apple and Bank of America, as well as developments regarding new portfolio manager Todd Combs, which will influence market expectations for Berkshire's future performance.
See More
Kraft Heinz Pauses Separation Plan Under New CEO
- New CEO's Strategic Shift: Kraft Heinz's new CEO Steve Cahillane announced a pause on the planned separation after five weeks in office, believing that the challenges faced are manageable and opportunities exceed expectations, which may enhance the company's competitiveness and market performance.
- Berkshire's Support: Berkshire Hathaway's CEO Greg Abel publicly endorsed Cahillane's decision, emphasizing that this strategic adjustment will allow management to focus on strengthening Kraft Heinz's market competitiveness, reflecting Berkshire's confidence in its investment.
- Positive Shareholder Reaction: Although Kraft Heinz's stock initially fell upon the announcement of the separation pause, it quickly rebounded to close the week with a 0.7% gain, indicating market recognition and anticipation of the new strategy.
- Potential Equity Changes: Berkshire had previously considered selling its stake in Kraft Heinz, and the pause on the separation may help stabilize the stock price and avoid large-scale sell-offs, further solidifying Berkshire's investment position in the company.
See More
