Is DXYZ the New VCX? Investors Flock to SpaceX Proxy Trade; Discover Destiny Tech100's Leading Holdings
SpaceX's Portfolio Exposure: SpaceX accounts for approximately 16.2% of Destiny Tech 100's portfolio, significantly higher than the 5% exposure in VCX, indicating its central role in investor positioning ahead of a potential large IPO.
Market Sentiment and Volatility: The first month post-IPO for SpaceX could experience volatility driven by index buying, meme-driven optimism, and lock-up dynamics, as investors anticipate a valuation near $1.75 trillion.
Investment Trends: Destiny Tech 100 is heavily invested in various tech companies, with significant stakes in firms like Shield AI and Databricks, which are expected to lead the next cycle of mega-cap tech listings.
Retail Investor Sentiment: Retail sentiment for Destiny Tech 100 remains extremely bullish, with a notable surge in trading volume, reflecting growing interest in newer portfolio-access vehicles and potential future valuations.
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- New IPO Inclusion Rules: FTSE Russell has announced new regulations allowing large newly listed companies to qualify for index inclusion after just five trading days, significantly enhancing market liquidity and investor interest in new stocks.
- SpaceX Valuation Potential: SpaceX is targeting a valuation of approximately $1.75 trillion for its IPO, which, if successful, would make it the largest IPO in history, likely attracting substantial passive investment flows.
- Stock Performance Surge: Following the new FTSE Russell rules, stocks like Destiny Tech100 (DXYZ) and Fundrise Innovation Fund (VCX) have shown strong performance this month, with DXYZ on track for its best month since November 2024, indicating robust market interest in SpaceX.
- Investor Sentiment: Despite Destiny Tech100's plans for a $1 billion at-the-market offering, investor sentiment remains bullish, with DXYZ shares up 29% over the past year, reflecting retail investors' enthusiasm for gaining indirect exposure to SpaceX.
- SpaceX IPO Valuation Expectations: Traders anticipate that SpaceX's first-day closing valuation will range between $2 trillion and $2.5 trillion, assigning a 37% probability to this outcome, indicating strong market confidence in its potential IPO, which could become one of the largest public offerings in history.
- OpenAI and Anthropic IPO Prospects: Kalshi traders assign a 92% probability to OpenAI going public this year, while Anthropic stands at 69%, suggesting a bullish outlook for both companies, with potential first-day valuations exceeding $1 trillion.
- Investor Enthusiasm for DXYZ and VCX: As IPO excitement grows, retail investors are flocking to DXYZ and VCX, with DXYZ holding 16.2% of its assets in SpaceX and VCX having 20.7% in Anthropic, reflecting a strong interest in tech stocks.
- Market Valuation Concerns: Despite the IPO frenzy, Deutsche Bank warns that projected IPO valuations appear disconnected from current business fundamentals, particularly when compared to Berkshire Hathaway's annual revenue exceeding $350 billion, raising concerns about the market's capacity to absorb multiple mega-IPOs.
- Investment Surge: BlackRock reportedly plans to invest up to $10 billion in the SpaceX IPO, potentially becoming a key anchor investor, which could attract additional large institutional investors and significantly heighten market interest in the offering.
- Oversubscription Expectations: Investor Larry Goldberg indicated that demand for the SpaceX IPO could reach 20 times oversubscribed, reflecting strong market anticipation for the company's public debut, with expectations that its valuation may exceed $2 trillion, making it one of the largest IPOs in history.
- Technical Complexity Challenges: The upcoming Starship launch is viewed as a critical event ahead of the IPO, with Goldberg noting that the mission carries ultra-high technical risks, which could impact investor confidence and market sentiment surrounding the IPO.
- Retail Investor Enthusiasm: Retail investors are showing significant enthusiasm for SpaceX proxy plays such as DXYZ, VCX, and NASA, with DXYZ jumping 9% in pre-market trading, while VCX and NASA also posted consecutive weekly gains, indicating strong market interest in SpaceX-related investments.
- Investor Access Restrictions: Wood and Robinhood's Shiv Verma highlight that the SEC's accredited investor rule is antiquated, limiting non-accredited investors from private markets, resulting in companies like SpaceX achieving valuations up to $2 trillion before going public, thereby allowing early investors to reap massive gains while retail investors face losses.
- Decline in Public Companies: Over the past 25 to 30 years, the number of publicly listed U.S. companies has roughly halved, as founders opt to remain private to avoid the bureaucracy and disclosure burdens of being public, a trend that allows institutional investors to dominate during high-growth phases.
- Emergence of New Investment Vehicles: Ark's $750 million interval fund ARKVX and Robinhood's newly launched RV1 closed-end fund aim to fill the access void for retail investors, providing more flexible investment options, especially in the absence of accredited investors.
- Market Sentiment Shift: SpaceX has become the top trending ticker on Stocktwits, with retail sentiment improving from 'bullish' to 'extremely bullish', indicating increasing market anticipation for its upcoming IPO and reflecting retail investors' sustained interest in IPOs.
- IPO Anticipation: SpaceX is expected to release its IPO prospectus next week, targeting a fundraising amount between $70 billion and $75 billion, which, if successful, would mark one of the largest listings in Wall Street history with a valuation exceeding $1.75 trillion, significantly boosting investor confidence and driving related stock prices higher.
- DXYZ's Strong Performance: As a major retail proxy for SpaceX, DXYZ has 16.2% of its portfolio allocated to SpaceX, with a net asset value reaching $19.97 per share as of December 31, 2025, reflecting a 76% increase from the previous quarter, indicating robust market demand and investor interest in high-tech firms.
- ETF Investment Opportunities: ETFs like NASA and XOVR have also garnered investor attention, with NASA holding a 10% stake in SpaceX and XOVR having 10.86% exposure through special-purpose vehicles, providing a dual advantage of liquidity and access to private market investments, further enhancing investor participation.
- Retail Sentiment Surge: On the Stocktwits platform, retail sentiment around DXYZ and NASA is deemed 'extremely bullish', while XOVR shows a 'bullish' sentiment, indicating that investors are highly optimistic about SpaceX's upcoming IPO, which could trigger a significant influx of retail investment.
- Market Buzz from Partnership: Google's discussions with SpaceX regarding a collaboration for its 'Project Suncatcher' initiative have led to a 12% premarket surge in the DXYZ ETF, indicating strong investor interest in the space sector.
- Investor Confidence Boosted: DXYZ ETF's largest holding is SpaceX at 16.2% of its assets, while NASA ETF's 10% direct exposure to SpaceX has also garnered attention, reflecting a bullish sentiment towards space technology investments.
- IPO Prospects Attract Capital Inflows: With SpaceX potentially raising up to $75 billion in what could be the largest IPO in history, related stocks like LUNR and RKLB have also rallied, gaining 9% and 6% respectively, as investors anticipate significant market movements.
- Retail Investor Sentiment High: On Stocktwits, retail sentiment for DXYZ and NASA is described as 'extremely bullish', with users comparing the fund's portfolio to owning rights to legendary music acts, suggesting substantial growth potential ahead.











