Iren's Earnings Report Shows Volatility but Promising Future
- Stock Volatility: Iren's stock closed near $40 on earnings day but plunged below $30 in after-hours trading, only to rebound by 5% the following day, indicating strong market confidence in its long-term fundamentals.
- Customer Contract Expectations: Although investors were disappointed by the absence of new customer announcements, particularly similar to the $9.7 billion deal with Microsoft, CEO Daniel Roberts reassured that multiple contracts are under negotiation, maintaining confidence in the long-term AI investment thesis.
- Energy Bottleneck Solutions: With the 1.4 gigawatt Sweetwater 1 facility set to be energized in April, Iren is positioned to address energy bottlenecks for tech giants, enhancing its competitiveness for securing large contracts.
- New Data Center Development: Iren secured a 1.6 gigawatt data center in Oklahoma, with power scheduling ramping up by 2028, bringing total secured power to 4.5 gigawatts; if it achieves similar revenue rates as with Microsoft, annual revenue could exceed $40 billion.
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- Analyst Rating Reaffirmed: On February 10, Canaccord Genuity analyst Joseph Vafi reiterated a Buy rating on IREN Limited with a price target of $70, reflecting confidence in the company's future growth prospects.
- Strong Revenue Projections: Analysts predict that IREN plans to deliver approximately 140,000 graphics processing units (GPUs) by the end of 2026, positioning the company for an annualized revenue run-rate of $3.4 billion, indicating robust market competitiveness.
- Data Center Expansion: IREN's recent acquisition of a new 1.6 GW data center in Oklahoma increases its total secured power capacity to over 4.5 GW, further solidifying its leadership in the renewable energy sector.
- Market Sentiment Analysis: Although Cantor Fitzgerald lowered its price target to $82, it maintained an Overweight rating, reflecting ongoing market confidence in IREN, particularly as the company shifts towards AI computing.
Market Overview: Stocks are under pressure despite cooler-than-expected inflation readings, with investors focusing on valuations, particularly in the artificial intelligence sector, as earnings season reveals strong numbers from major players.
AI Impact on Jobs: Concerns are growing about the impact of AI on the job market, leading to a circular debate among investors regarding future interest rate cuts and stock valuations.
Earnings Season Insights: Major companies in the AI trade are posting strong earnings, which may influence stock prices positively, while the overall outlook for stocks remains bullish.
Investment Opportunities: Analysts highlight specific stocks, including those in the insurance and energy sectors, as potential buys, while cautioning investors about the risks associated with tech stocks and the broader market's direction.
- Market Recovery: Tech stocks broadly rose on Friday afternoon, reflecting a gradual restoration of investor confidence in the technology sector, which could drive stock prices of related companies higher.
- Strong ETF Performance: The State Street Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF (XPREMIUM) showed robust performance during trading, indicating positive sentiment towards the tech sector that may attract more capital inflows.
- Improved Investor Sentiment: With the rise in tech stocks, investor sentiment has improved, potentially leading more investors to reassess their portfolios and increase allocations to technology stocks.
- Optimistic Industry Outlook: The recovery in the tech sector may signal future economic recovery, especially against the backdrop of accelerated digital transformation, where demand for technology investments from businesses is expected to continue growing.
- Index Inclusion Impact: IREN's addition to the MSCI USA Index typically triggers automatic buying by index funds and ETFs, potentially leading to a short-term stock price surge, thereby enhancing the company's visibility and attractiveness in capital markets.
- Stock Price Volatility: Although IREN shares rose 0.4% in early trading, they have declined nearly 14% over the past three sessions, reflecting market sentiment fluctuations and investor caution.
- AI Cloud Strategy Advancement: IREN secured a multi-year, $9.7 billion AI cloud services contract with Microsoft, expected to provide Nvidia GPU capacity, further solidifying its market position in AI cloud services.
- Bitcoin Mining Capacity: IREN rapidly expanded its data center footprint over the past year, achieving an industry-scale Bitcoin mining capacity of approximately 50 EH/s, demonstrating its scale in high-performance computing and Bitcoin mining services.
- Inflation Data Expectations: Economists anticipate that the January Consumer Price Index (CPI) will show a year-over-year increase of 2.5%, a figure that could significantly influence the Federal Reserve's rate hike expectations in the coming weeks, thereby impacting market sentiment and investment strategies.
- Futures Market Movement: As of 3:00 a.m. ET on Friday, Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq futures were all down by 0.1%, indicating a cautious stance among investors ahead of the inflation data release, which could lead to increased market volatility.
- Retail Sentiment Analysis: The SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) are showing 'bearish' and 'extremely bearish' sentiments respectively, reflecting investor concerns about market prospects, particularly in the context of high trading volumes.
- Economic Data Focus: Investors will closely monitor the Consumer Price Index set to be released at 8:30 a.m. ET today, along with quarterly earnings reports from Moderna, Wendy’s, and others, as these data points are expected to have a significant impact on market trends.
- Index Inclusion Impact: IREN Limited will be added to the MSCI USA Index after the market closes on February 27, 2026, which is expected to significantly enhance its visibility among institutional investors and index-tracking funds, thereby increasing market confidence.
- Market Coverage Expansion: The MSCI USA Index represents approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in the U.S., and IREN's inclusion signifies its recognition in the large and mid-cap market, potentially attracting more capital inflows.
- Confidence in Strategic Execution: IREN's Co-Founder and Co-CEO Daniel Roberts stated that this inclusion reflects the scale and liquidity the company has built, indicating its ongoing capability to execute its AI Cloud strategy effectively.
- Growth Potential: As a leading AI cloud service provider, IREN's vertically integrated platform is supported by its extensive portfolio of data centers located in renewable-rich regions across the U.S. and Canada, which is expected to enhance its competitive edge and drive higher revenue growth in the future.








