Investment Outlook: Amazon vs. MercadoLibre
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 2 days ago
0mins
Should l Buy AMZN?
Source: Fool
- AWS Profitability: Amazon's cloud computing segment, AWS, accounted for the majority of the company's operating income in 2025, despite representing only 18% of total revenue, highlighting its critical role in profitability and driving investments in artificial intelligence.
- Capital Expenditure Concerns: Amazon plans to allocate $200 billion for capital expenditures in 2025, a significant increase from $132 billion in 2025, which, while potentially enhancing future growth, has raised concerns among investors regarding stock price stability.
- MercadoLibre's Fintech Growth: MercadoLibre's fintech arm, Mercado Pago, has become a key growth driver amid Latin America's shift from cash to fintech; however, the provision for doubtful accounts surged 58% to over $2.1 billion in the first nine months of 2025, dramatically slowing profit growth.
- Market Risks and Opportunities: Despite facing economic and political risks, MercadoLibre's ability to adapt to regional challenges makes it appealing to investors, particularly those willing to take on higher risks, as its smaller size allows for faster growth potential compared to Amazon.
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Analyst Views on AMZN
Wall Street analysts forecast AMZN stock price to rise
47 Analyst Rating
46 Buy
1 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 199.600
Low
250.00
Averages
294.69
High
340.00
Current: 199.600
Low
250.00
Averages
294.69
High
340.00
About AMZN
Amazon.com, Inc. provides a range of products and services to customers. The products offered through its stores include merchandise and content it has purchased for resale and products offered by third-party sellers. The Company’s segments include North America, International and Amazon Web Services (AWS). It serves consumers through its online and physical stores and focuses on selection, price, and convenience. Customers access its offerings through its websites, mobile apps, Alexa, devices, streaming, and physically visiting its stores. It also manufactures and sells electronic devices, including Kindle, Fire tablet, Fire TV, Echo, Ring, Blink, and eero, and develops and produces media content. It serves developers and enterprises of all sizes, including start-ups, government agencies, and academic institutions, through AWS, which offers a set of on-demand technology services, including compute, storage, database, analytics, and machine learning, and other services.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Strong Financial Results: Despite narrowly missing earnings expectations, Amazon reported a 14% year-over-year revenue increase to $213 billion in Q4, driven by robust growth in advertising and cloud computing, highlighting the company's competitive position in rapidly growing markets.
- Capital Expenditure Plans: Amazon plans to increase capital expenditures to $200 billion by 2026, a 56% rise from $128 billion in 2025, raising investor concerns about the company's financial health, particularly regarding its significant investments in AI infrastructure.
- Accelerating Cloud Growth: Amazon Web Services (AWS) saw a 24% revenue increase in Q4, the fastest growth in 13 quarters, with CEO Andy Jassy noting that the custom chip business has surpassed a $10 billion annual revenue run rate, indicating that AI investments are beginning to yield returns.
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- Valuation Pullback Justified: Despite significant revenue and earnings growth, Amazon's stock has declined by approximately 7% since 2025, with its PE ratio dropping to 26.5 times, reflecting a market reassessment of its valuation, potentially providing a reasonable buying opportunity for investors.
- Capital Expenditure Plans: Amazon plans to invest $200 billion in capital expenditures in 2026, primarily for data center construction, which may impact cash flows; however, if AI computing demand continues to grow, this investment will support future business expansion.
- Investor Confidence Recovery: Although the Motley Fool analyst team did not include Amazon in their current best stock picks, analysts believe that Amazon is poised for a stock rebound in 2026, indicating a recovery in market confidence regarding its future performance.
See More
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- Policy Response Measures: The Trump administration has signed a pact with several states urging major tech companies to finance $15 billion for new power plants to alleviate the strain data centers place on the grid, demonstrating proactive government intervention in energy policy.
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See More
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- Surge in Capital Expenditures: Tech giants like Amazon and Google have significantly raised their capital expenditure outlooks, with Amazon projecting spending to reach $200 billion, far exceeding the $147 billion consensus, which could impact stock performance and investor confidence.
- Intensified Market Competition: The rapid advancement of AI technology raises questions about the value of enterprise software, leading investors to adopt a pessimistic view on the future of traditional software companies, especially in labor-intensive areas that may face workforce reductions due to AI adoption.
- Investor Confidence Shaken: Despite significant advancements by companies like Anthropic and OpenAI in the AI space, market confidence in traditional software companies is waning, resulting in poor stock performance over the past six months and raising concerns about future profitability.
See More
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- Surging Capital Expenditures: Amazon plans to increase capital expenditures from $132 billion last year to $200 billion by 2026, which could lead to negative free cash flow but reflects the company's confidence in future revenue growth.
- AWS Revenue Growth: Amazon Web Services (AWS) achieved a 24% revenue growth over the past year, reaching $35.6 billion, with expectations for continued acceleration driven by surging demand from AI startups.
- Record Operating Earnings: Despite declining free cash flow due to infrastructure investments, Amazon's operating earnings hit a record high of $85 billion over the last 12 months, showcasing strong performance in both retail and cloud businesses.
- Long-Term Growth Potential: If Amazon can achieve a 15% annual revenue growth over the next three years, its revenue could exceed $1 trillion by 2030, with a 15% profit margin translating to $150 billion in net earnings, nearly double current levels.
See More
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- Capital Expenditure Plans: Amazon plans to invest $200 billion in capital expenditures by 2026, a significant increase from last year's $132 billion, which could lead to negative free cash flow in 2026, yet reflects the company's confidence in future revenue growth.
- AWS Revenue Growth: Amazon Web Services (AWS) achieved a 24% year-over-year revenue growth to $35.6 billion, with expectations for continued demand, particularly driven by spending needs from artificial intelligence startups.
- Record Operating Earnings: Despite declining free cash flow due to infrastructure investments, Amazon's operating earnings reached a historic high of $85 billion over the past 12 months, indicating expanding margins in both its retail operations and AWS.
- Long-Term Growth Potential: If Amazon can achieve a 15% annual revenue growth over the next three years, it is projected to exceed $1 trillion in revenue by 2030, with a 15% profit margin translating to $150 billion in net earnings, nearly double current levels.
See More
